#strategy

This is from 1999 when we saw share prices drop by 24 percent just wondered if they dusted this off from an old set of meeting minutes..it feel awful familiar.

"In April, Thoman unveiled a plan to remake Xerox’s image as a technology company instead of a copier maker. The shift, which involves realigning the sales force, is designed to let Xerox sell customized packages of consulting services, software and machines that the company says will generate half its revenue in the next decade."

Guyana the poster child for operational excellence is starting to show some signs of depletion and sand/water production. Maintaining an FPSO above 260,000 bopd for over 6 months is looking like an improbability. By September Exxon will have to purchase another company with substantial production and reserves. Who do you expect it to be?

It's easy to focus on quarterly headlines. Harder to ignore a 46%+ loss in market value over 12 months. Don't forget the big picture.

Is it prudent to permit a BL favorite and boosted sycophant the opportunity to repair a broken organizational structure? BP is complex by design and by intent. Creative ideas and processes that are successful at other operating companies are frowned upon and sabotaged from the get go. Yet other operating companies that manage ex BP assets do so at a profit and discover and exploit the uplift left behind by people like GB

Just floating around with the tide and no destination. They could have been something if they bought up companies and simply just left them alone. The hubris of strategy, synergies, and merger integration....SBC RBOC boys from Texas. They were block head hammers and everything was a nail. Saw it first hand with the Cingular tie up. SBC heads for the most part were belligerent bulldozers.

As the following article concludes, Oracle has debt obligations around a quarter of a billion dollars.

What is the interest on that amount?
Does everything have to happen perfectly for 15 years to pay that off?
What is plan B?

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/oracle-debt-fever-only-prescription-140741343.html

According to reporting today, Centene offered voluntary buyouts to most employees and indicated layoffs could follow if enough employees don't accept. CEO Sarah London told employees, "When our membership shifts, we need to shift our organization accordingly." The company reportedly had about 61,000 employees in Q1 2026. (Bloomberg Law)

## Updated Timeline

### Phase 1: 2022–2024

New leadership takes over.

Board thesis:

• Modernize Centene
• Become more technology-driven
• Improve member outcomes
• Diversify beyond traditional Medicaid dependence

At this point, the strategy was defensible.

### Phase 2: 2024–2025

Warning signs emerge.

Management faced:

• Medicaid redeterminations
• Rising utilization
• ACA Marketplace volatility
• Expiring enhanced subsidies

This is where forecasting and scenario planning become critical.

### Phase 3: 2025–2026

The strategy begins unraveling.

What happened:

Membership

• Medicaid enrollment declines.
• ACA Marketplace enrollment drops far more than originally anticipated after subsidy changes and premium increases. Centene expected ACA membership to fall from roughly 5.5 million to about 3.5 million after repricing. (Healthcare Dive)

Financials

• Massive earnings deterioration.
• Guidance credibility damaged.
• Investor confidence weakened. (Healthcare Dive)

Organization

• Executive restructuring announced in April 2026. (Investor Relations | Centene Corporation)
• Now voluntary buyouts and potential layoffs announced in June 2026. (Bloomberg Law)

# The New Insight

The buyout program is not the problem.

It is evidence of the problem.

When a payer begins broad voluntary separation programs after:

• Membership losses
• Earnings deterioration
• Multiple prior layoffs
• Organizational restructuring

it usually means management now believes the revenue base has permanently reset lower than previously expected. (Bloomberg Law)

In other words:

They are no longer planning for a temporary disruption.

They are resizing the company for a smaller future membership base.

That is a much more significant signal than the layoffs themselves.

# What This Says About Leadership

My view now:

## CFO Accountability: 40%

The CFO owns:

• Forecasting
• Scenario modeling
• Guidance
• Financial planning

The Marketplace membership collapse should have been modeled more aggressively.

Questions a board should ask:

• What was the expected subsidy expiration impact?
• What was the worst-case scenario?
• Why were forecasts so far off?
• Why did guidance have to be revised?

Those are CFO questions.

## CEO Accountability: 60%

The CEO owns:

### Strategic Direction

The critical decision wasn't the forecast.

The critical decision was:

"Marketplace will offset Medicaid losses."

That appears increasingly incorrect.

The company effectively:

• Lost Medicaid members
• Lost Marketplace members
• Lost operating leverage

And now must shrink the workforce to match the new reality. (Bloomberg Law)

That's fundamentally a strategic issue.

# What Would a Board Likely Do?

If I were sitting on the board today, I would ask:

### Question 1

Was this primarily:

• a forecasting failure?

or

• a strategy failure?

The answer determines who goes.

### If Forecasting Failed

Replace:

• CFO
• Chief Actuary
• Finance leadership

Retain CEO.

### If Strategy Failed

Replace:

• CEO

Possibly retain CFO if forecasts reflected the risks and leadership ignored them.

# My Assessment Today

With everything now known:

1. Medicaid losses
2. Marketplace losses
3. Subsidy expiration effects
4. Pricing issues
5. Guidance issues
6. Workforce reductions
7. Voluntary buyouts

I no longer see this as primarily a finance problem.

I see it as a strategy and execution problem.

The workforce reduction announcement is especially important because it demonstrates leadership is now reacting to membership losses rather than benefiting from a growth strategy. (Bloomberg Law)

# If This Were My Board Recommendation

Near term (next 6 months)

• Replace or restructure portions of Finance and Actuarial leadership.
• Bring in an external operating advisor with deep Medicaid and payer turnaround experience.
• Require a comprehensive membership recovery and profitability plan.

Medium term (next 12 months)

If:

• Membership stabilizes,
• Margins recover,
• Workforce reductions achieve targets,

then the CEO survives.

If:

• ACA membership continues declining,
• Medicaid pressure persists,
• Another major earnings miss occurs,

then I would expect the board to seriously evaluate replacing the CEO.

## Final Assessment

Looking at Centene from before Sarah through today, the company appears to have moved from a highly disciplined Medicaid operator under Michael Neidorff to a company attempting a broader transformation under Sarah London. The challenge is that the transformation coincided with one of the most difficult payer environments in decades. The latest buyout program is a strong signal that leadership now believes the enrollment and revenue outlook is materially lower than previously expected, forcing the organization into another round of cost reductions. Based on the information available today, I would assign greater accountability to the CEO than the CFO because the root issue appears to be strategic positioning and market assumptions, not simply financial forecasting. (Bloomberg Law)

The entry barrier to inferencing is less compared to training and modeling side of AI . So competition will ki-l the dominant position soon. So the hyper scaler story CEO says will only have short life and company heading south

well ...

HPE is up 333%

DELL is up 3'300%

Funny when large $$$$ doesn't come with even a bit of common sense

https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down/

Their AI-first hiring freeze is just an excuse to keep employee numbers, and costs, low. They have no AI strategy and by and large it's a game of showmanship and fakery.

Read that newsletter. It's fun and informative and he's got something coming up soon that should be a hoot.

Anyone with half a brain knows that Starlink is no longer just a rural internet fix. With 9.2 million paying customers ($10B in annual rev), and direct-to-cell satellites already working on standard smartphones, SpaceX is building a parallel network that bypasses carriers like ours entirely. Oppenheimer recently flagged it as a threat to the entire $1.6 trillion US communications industry. Legacy carriers spent decades owning and building the costly infrastructure. SpaceX just launched its own.

SpaceX is going scotch earthed and VZ will be roadkill!

It’s been over 1.5 years since COP purchased MRO and the question is- was it worth it? What were the positives and negatives? Is COP stronger and more agile now? What’s next?

I’m waiting to see what happens after the layoffs. Layoffs always cause a stock bump. The announcement of a multiyear layoff, while tragic, was smart for a sustained climbing stock bump but what about after?

You have to have something new that your competitor does not or do something better than your competitor. I’ve never seen a Citi bank, an actual walk in bank and I’ve never seen a Citi ATM other than what’s at the office. So we make the direction of wealth management. Oookay, so what’s our plan of getting that market share? People don’t just move money from a well established bank to another bank because they are bored with nothing to do.

What’s the plan to still have the stock grow post the layoffs? What are we doing to accomplish that, that’s either new or better than other banks?

We know CVX moves in lockstep with XOM but after the fact and a little slower.
What will CVX do to keep up with XOM?

Apache is going ba--s deep in Alaska a storied and complex oil province. Does this make sense? Will we see a repetition of Apache Canada with an eventual exit?
What’s JC’s plan?

https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3579174

With headlines buzzing about SpaceX and other high-profile private companies, it is tempting to rethink how we invest for retirement. But should that excitement push you to self-manage your 401(k)?

For most investors, 401(k) plans are built around long-term stability, not chasing hype. Broad index funds remain a reliable foundation because they spread risk and track overall market growth. While standout companies can capture attention, they are often inaccessible or highly speculative, especially in retirement accounts.

Self-managing your 401(k) can offer more control, but it also demands discipline, research, and a clear strategy. The real question is not whether a company like SpaceX is exciting—it is whether shifting away from diversified investing improves your long-term outcomes.

Before making changes, consider whether your motivation is strategy or simply reacting to market buzz.

What is this collaboration with the clothing brand, Municipal? I'm failing to understand the strategy behind this.

I’ve been here long enough to notice how often the company seems to shift based on the latest trend. Some trends fade fast, while others stick around much longer, and I don’t think we always know which is which. I wish leadership would think further ahead instead of treating every new moment like the whole strategy.

Anyone remember how beneficial BCG' analysis was to Ford' meteoric rise to profitability in the past?
Not!
I just want to hear stories from the older crew.
On another note, does anyone remember their attempt at implementing a Matrix Management model?
Maybe if they understood the difference between producing a quality product and the stylish management trends of the month, Ford would be a great car company.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4601923-activist-jana-wants-fiserv-to-sell-more-assets-refresh-board---report

We lack vision and long term planning. We opt for layoffs because it's the easiest option to free up capital when our stock is going down the drain. We forget that the employees that we let go have context and knowledge domain expertise. By the time we realize, we're going to try and patch it up with rehiring but getting ramped up and onboarding takes time. At the end of it, we would have lost capital, opportunity cost and market share. I genuinely want to know who is driving our transformation and strategy? Are there not any business case studies we can look at? How many companies have successfully pivoted away from third-parties to DTC? Even Apple sells their products at other stores. How many companies have succeeded in GC? For a company of this caliber, I would have expected that we have some risk-based assessment when making these plans. I'm sure Nike would have its own Harvard business case study one day at this point.

@kp+1krea8g33 hits the nail on the head.

ConocoPhillips had extensive and profitable operations in Venezuela. With the country’s expressed interest that oil operators return will ConocoPhillips return and use its technical acumen with horizontal wells and frac technology to deliver exceptional results in Venezuela?

FDS seems to want to give the impression that they’re investing in real-time. What’s the strategic thought process there, seen the fact that it requires substantial investment to set up. It seems an odd choice when you’re already struggling.

Dan here. Announcing our 2026 strategy: We’re looking to globally engage end to end catalyst for change by intrinsically productizing cross-cultural channels and competently expediting seamless alignments. Artificial Intelligence. We want to rapidly create advanced dynamic customer experiences and compellingly scale user centric stories. Artificial intelligence. We’re going to be uniquely targeting low risk, yet high yield web readiness. Our exploratory research points to deconstructive relative contingencies, and now is the time to revamp and reboot our holistic asset projections, with our interactive 3rd generation paradigm shifts. Artificial intelligence. I’m sure we can make a window here to really discuss with our customers holistic, monitored innovations. Artificial intelligence.
And now’s the time to chart this opportunity and take the company forward. By now, you should be clear on the vision and purpose of the business. With this strategy and artificial intelligence, we will increase our targets 10x. Play to win. Artificial intelligence. All gas, no brakes. Artificial intelligence. Go team. AI.

I genuinely want to understand what's going on with CDO. She regularly brings sales people to speak at her town halls, the CEO directs AI roadmap questions to her instead of the product engineering leader, and right before the new CEO takes over she picks up yet another business unit. She came in as a operations leader, but now it feels like every strategically important BU reports into her.
At what point do we stop viewing this as a series of unrelated decisions and start seeing it as a deliberate concentration of leadership? Is the company effectively positioning her as the executive responsible for product, strategy, operations, and business execution all at once?
It's starting to look less like a traditional functional leader and more like someone accumulating power across the company, leading to a centralized executive structure similar to what existed under Mark's leadership, where significant influence and decision-making authority was concentrated under a single leader.
Time will tell whether this is the right approach. But given the company's experience with one man leadership, it's fair to question whether we're heading down a familiar path.

So are we all just going to nod along, or is somebody going to ask the obvious questions like, "What's the strategy again?" and "When exactly are we planning to factor human capital into it?"

PEP stock is sitting right in the middle of 2021's range - well below 2021's year-end close of ~$159 - Can doomed PepsiCo turn things around? How much Ramon has left in the role? Is this a real business value of our Strategy & Transformation over the last 5 years?

I plan to resign soon and hope to leave on the same day or the following day. Although I know I am not legally required to provide two weeks notice, I would like to do so as a courtesy. Is there a specific phrase that could facilitate being sent home immediately upon offering two weeks' notice? For instance, would mentioning that I am joining a competitor work? I am looking for a dignified and graceful path to fulfill both objectives, ensuring no bridges are burned and no sour grapes.

‘On May 26, 2026, Synopsys entered into a cooperation agreement with activist investor Elliott Investment Management that includes appointing Elliott managing partner Jesse Cohn as an independent director, effective June 1, 2026, expanding the board to 11 members.’

The vultures have arrived, surely things will get better now.

I don’t understand why we own ships and have such a large maritime presence/teams? Seems like a ripe area for ENGINE or simply rent ships from someone else. I can’t imagine we operate ships less expensive than the open market!

A friend of mine just got and email title "Strategy Change" from their Sr. Dir. (she is a GL 28) There are no invitees, it's a BCC: It's for 10AM CDT

https://www.ncrvoyix.com/newsroom/ncr-voyix-partners-with-u-s-bank-voyager-to-enable-fleet-card-acceptance-through-voyix-connect

"With Voyix Connect, the company is focused on simplifying payment enablement and supporting scalable integrations that help fuel retailers serve fleet customers efficiently."

This is the exact same playbook that Corpay had 15 years ago, when it was calling itself Fleetcor. And it worked! But someone should tell James Kelly and co. that the this is not an exit strategy will work for him or Voyix, because the payments industry is not what it was back when he was fleecing Global Payments. (For anyone not paying attention, the only two payment industry investments worth owning are Visa and Mastercard.) Better find another savior, James. And another playbook.

I have been at Open Text for a while, and I still can't tell if leadership has any kind of long term strategy or if we are all just responding to whatever crisis popped up most recently. My previous employer had plenty of problems, but at least they had a roadmap. Here, it feels like we are always reacting to something and never actually moving forward.

I’ve never worked at a company that changes course as much as this one, constantly chasing whichever way the wind happens to be blowing, whether politically or technologically. One minute it’s one strategy, the next it’s the complete opposite, like nobody even remembers what they were pushing six months ago.

Appian has changed over all senior leadership in the past two years. Except for the founders, of course.

In that time Appian has lost 1/3 of its value, while industry peers like PEGA and even the broader enterprise software ETF stocks (IGV) have gained 12-14%.

There’s nobody left to blame but yourselves. You aren’t good at your jobs. You can’t hire well. You can’t run a company well. You’re in over your heads but are too arrogant to see it. You’ve done your best to force alignment under a single old strategy… silencing any challenge to the boss. It’s not working.

Cash out. Let new people run this institution. Or continue to flush value down the drain,

Just a thought, maybe start chasing VAST/Weka/Qumulo before they eat all your NAS lunch?

During the Q2 Town Hall, a question was asked about our strategy to replace commodity IT roles with external partners.

The answer was that we're moving to more of a factory model of labor, and we're going to reduce the need to have specialized 3M knowledge.

Between that and the other half of the town hall being about how we need to scale up our use of AI, it's clear that they're looking to reduce headcount.

Nike just kept moving forward for last 40 years at 90 MPH.

the issue with Nike is that they are too big. They are in every aspect of sports business.

Akin to adidas in 70s, Nike is too many things!! License product, performance product, non performance product, accessories, skateboarding, boutique retros, winter sports, team sports on and on.
Perhaps the winning strategy is cut out category that does not help Nike and not doing a good job as we speak or there is no future in it.

adidas was in so many categories including perfumes LOL in the 1970s. And when Mr. adidas passed the whole thing came crumbling down and gave Nike a hole big enough drive train by. Let's learn from mistake, other people's mistake.

streamline your offerings!!!