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2nd quarter earnings, two views

I was curious about why the message from Verizon sounded so different from the Wall Street Journal. I asked Google to explain the differences.

"Verizon's official corporate communications emphasize positive operational highlights like subscriber growth and adjusted earnings beats, whereas The Wall Street Journal provides a comprehensive financial evaluation that also factors in declining total revenue and non-operating joint-venture costs.

Verizon's Presentation: Focuses heavily on adjusted metrics, beating subscriber estimates (184,000 net postpaid phone additions), and raised full-year guidance.

The Wall Street Journal's Reporting: Highlights the complete picture, noting that total companywide revenue ticked down slightly year-over-year and quarterly profit was weighed down by significant costs (such as a $746 million loss from a joint venture with BT Group)."

I wonder if the truth lies somewhere between spin A and spin B


Riddle Me This

I understand senior management milking this whole game of grabbing cash till it is gone. I also understand older employees staying until social security is close. Perks of vacation time and free travel to events must be great for them. But, how is any second tier lien holder of this debt calculating they will get all their money back?
With stock dropping causing loss in investments and the REAL debt being said it would be closer to 9 billion, what bank would possibly feel ok with this?
Could someone explain this? Are there hidden advantages here somehow.


IBM has filed a SEC Form 8-K: Unscheduled unreported significant corporate event

"Form 8-K is a mandatory current report filed by U.S. publicly traded companies with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to disclose significant, unscheduled corporate events. Companies generally have four business days from the occurrence of a material event to file this form, ensuring investors receive timely updates between annual (10-K) and quarterly (10-Q) reports. "

It was filed yesterday:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/51143/000005114326000077/ibm-20260722.htm
https://www.ibm.com/investor/financial-reporting

Not sure if this means more bad news is coming or if this was them filing something about the 2Q Earnings that took 25% of the stock. Examples I was given of things that a 8-K is for is a C-suite quitting or being removed, bankruptcy, or the loss of a significant large contract.


Smith Comments on ESPN Job Cuts

Stephen A. Smith discussed recent ESPN layoffs on his podcast. He expressed unhappiness with the dismissal of NFL analyst Ryan Clark. Smith acknowledged the financial realities facing the company. He stated that such decisions are difficult but necessary. Smith also noted that more layoffs are likely.

New York, New York

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/media/2026/07/21/stephen-a-smith-espn-layoffs-reaction/90998482007/


Am I Missing Something About Oracle's AI Financial Obligations?

I've been trying to understand one part of Oracle's financial story, and I may be missing something.

A lot of discussions seem to assume that Oracle's remaining financial obligations are heavily tied to OpenAI. But why?

Oracle is investing billions into AI data centers. Those data centers are physical infrastructure—land, buildings, power, cooling, networking, GPUs, storage, etc. They aren't assets that can only be used by one customer.

If, for whatever reason, OpenAI reduces its demand or changes its plans, why couldn't Oracle repurpose that capacity for another large AI customer? Anthropic, xAI, another foundation model company, enterprises building their own AI models, or even future customers that don't exist today.

Obviously, there could be short-term impacts. Oracle might have customer-specific contracts, financing commitments, or temporary underutilization until replacement customers are found. I'm not saying there would be zero financial impact.

What I'm questioning is why the remaining financial obligations are sometimes discussed as if they're permanently tied to one company.

To me, the more relevant question is whether Oracle can keep those AI data centers utilized over the long term. If AI demand continues to grow, isn't the infrastructure itself the valuable asset rather than the identity of the first tenant?

I'm not bullish or bearish on Oracle. I'm genuinely trying to understand whether I'm overlooking something from a finance or infrastructure perspective.

Is there something in the financing structure, contractual commitments, or accounting treatment that effectively ties these obligations to OpenAI? Or do you think the market is overstating the customer concentration risk?

Curious to hear what others think.


Reminder of IBM's debt (to worsen later this month)

IBM's debt grew 5.2 billion dollars in the 3 months leading up to the last report:

https://finbox.com/NYSE:IBM/explorer/total_debt/

R.A. stands for redundant assets, maybe Arvind can sell IBM's trademark and goodwill to raise money.

"IBM goodwill and intangible assets for the quarter ending March 31, 2026 were $89.333B, a 13.86% increase year-over-year."

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/IBM/ibm/goodwill-intangible-assets-total


Stripe, Advent offer to buy PayPal for more than $53 billion

there's a good chance that Fiserv sells more non-core businesses.

www.reuters.com/business/finance/stripe-advent-offer-buy-paypal-more-than-53-billion-sources-say-2026-07-15/

  • Offer represents around 28% premium to PayPal's Tuesday closing price
  • Banks committed about $50 billion in financing for the bid
  • Stripe and Advent would each hold equal stakes in PayPal

A tidal wave of SpaceX shares after lockup expiration

This isn’t investment advice. Just sharing something I read because there was a lot of hype around the SpaceX IPO on this very forum.

https://x.com/gnoble79/status/2076080526042038465

The largest IPO in history is also shaping up to be the largest exit liquidity operation in history

SpaceX went public at more than 90x revenue, and the insiders who bought in at a fraction of today's price are about to start selling their shares to you.

Let me walk you through why this IPO is built to separate retail investors from their money:

SpaceX has NEVER turned a profit and lost close to $5 billion last year.

At the offering you were paying more than 90x revenue and at the peak the market briefly valued it near 140x.

30 years ago the head of Sun Microsystems explained in detail why paying even 10x revenue almost always ends in tears, and he was right.

But listen closely, because the valuation is not even the real story.

The scarcity is what CREATED this valuation in the first place, and the calendar that ki-ls the scarcity is what ki-ls the price.

Less than 5% of SpaceX shares were actually available to trade at the IPO. Then the index committees REWROTE their own rules to fast track the stock into the Nasdaq 100 just 15 trading days after listing, which forced every passive fund and index ETF in the country to buy at the exact moment the float was at its tightest. The Nasdaq inclusion alone forced an estimated $4.3 billion of buying, and the Russell reweighting added roughly $3 billion more.

The supply was minuscule and the buying was mandatory. That's a manufactured squeeze, and it is why the stock went above $225 in its first week.

Now watch what happens next, because this is the part they ain't explaining to you:

The lockup was staggered on purpose, and the entire schedule is sitting in the prospectus for anyone who bothers to read it.

In early August, right after Q2 earnings, 20% of the locked shares come free. Another 10% unlocks early if the stock trades 30% above the $135 IPO price going into the report.

Then tranches of 7% hit the market at 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days after the IPO, which means fresh insider supply lands roughly every 2 to 3 weeks from late August through late October.

Q3 earnings triggers the single biggest release of all, another 28%, roughly 1.3 billion shares. On December 8 the 180 day lockup expires entirely. And on June 12, 2027 comes the final wave, when Musk's own 6.4 billion shares, 42% of the whole company, become sellable for the first time.

Add it all up and insiders could be free to sell as much as 44% of the company by early September, which would balloon the tradable float by roughly 900%.

All of that supply lands on a stock the company deliberately packed with retail, because SpaceX reserved close to 30% of the offering for individual investors vs the usual 10%.

This deal created over 4,400 paper millionaires inside the company. You think none of them are looking to cash out?

Early holders are already loading up on puts to lock in what they have.

First they keep the float tiny. Then they let the index rules force the world to buy at the top. Then they release a flood of insider stock into a crowd of retail buyers who were handed the shares up high.

When the price finally breaks the offering level, the people who got in years ago at pennies on today's dollar will hit the bid, and the exit liquidity is your retirement account.

And what are you actually left holding? Strip away the science fiction and the only business inside SpaceX that reliably earns money is Starlink, which produced $1.2 billion of operating income last quarter. A wonderful business worth hundreds of billions on its best day. NOT $2 trillion.

Serious fair value work lands around $30 a share.

Nobody has been a bigger bear on this deal than me. I called it out the moment it started trading, and it is already playing out on schedule as the shares have given back the entire squeeze and slipped below their opening print.

I was Peter Lynch's auto analyst back in 1981 and I have watched every disaster since, and I am telling you this is one of the great wealth transfers of my lifetime packed into a fancy narrative.

Tesla was the biggest misallocation of capital in the history of stock markets. SpaceX may have just surpassed it.

SPCX goes straight onto my short list, and the beauty of this setup is that the catalyst is not a guess or something, it is literally a PUBLISHED CALENDAR.

This is the most grossly overpriced stock at scale that I have ever seen.


Finance Forum

So with the finance forum, the intent was clarity. However, if we expect finance personnel to engage with broader opinion, do they need to be finance specialists? I take that to mean that we don’t need finance majors any longer. Appreciate the additional clarity, Leadership!


Star being shopped around

How much do you want to bet that Fiserv does sell to those big banks but the deal still has Fiserv operating the network. Meaning basically nothing changes other than some money. This allows the banks to bypass the regulations and Fiserv keeps doing its thing. Imagine how difficult it would be to pull Star out of Fiserv at this point, I would say a minimum of 5 years to unwind that beast.


Rivian Plans Major Stock Offering

Electric vehicle maker Rivian is planning to sell 75 million shares of its stock. This move is intended to raise funds for equity contributions required by a U.S. Department of Energy loan. The company is working to meet the terms of this significant energy loan. This offering represents a substantial effort by Rivian to secure necessary financing. The sale aims to fulfill financial obligations tied to federal energy funding.

South San Francisco, California

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/manufacturing-logistics/ccb-rivian-selling-shares-20260706/


Current General Motors financial statistics for 2026

Here is the comprehensive statistical breakdown for General Motors in 2026, based on their latest Q1 reporting and updated full-year projections.

Key insight: GM's profitability is currently being driven heavily by their unified "Ultium" battery architecture, which is driving down manufacturing costs across their next-generation fleet, alongside a highly profitable mix of traditional gas-powered trucks and SUVs.


Q1 2026 FINANCIAL ACTUALS

GM's first quarter demonstrated significant margin expansion, driven by disciplined cost management and higher-margin truck and SUV sales.

Metric Q1 2026 Result YoY Change (vs Q1 2025)

Revenue $43.62 billion Down 0.9%
EBIT-Adjusted $4.25 billion Up 21.9%
Net Income $2.62 billion Down 5.7%
EPS (Diluted-Adjusted) $3.70 per share Up 33.0%
GMNA EBIT-Adjusted $3.66 billion Up 11.4%
GMNA Margin 10.1% Up 1.3 ppts


UPDATED FULL-YEAR 2026 GUIDANCE

In late April, GM raised its full-year EBIT guidance by $500 million. This was triggered by a favorable U.S. Supreme Court decision regarding certain tariffs paid under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), lowering their expected gross tariff costs for the year to a range of $2.5B - $3.5B.

Metric Updated FY 2026 Guidance

EBIT-Adjusted $13.5 billion - $15.5 billion
Net Income $9.9 billion - $11.4 billion
EPS (Diluted-Adjusted) $11.50 - $13.50
Automotive Free Cash Flow $9.0 billion - $11.0 billion
Capital Expenditures $10.0 billion - $12.0 billion


SALES & MARKET SHARE

GM maintained its core volume leadership while aggressively growing its EV footprint in the first half of the year:

  • Overall Market: Maintained overall sales leadership in the U.S. and Canada.
  • Trucks: Led the U.S. industry in full-size pickup sales with a 42% market share.
  • Fleet: #1 in fleet and commercial deliveries.
  • Electric Vehicles (EVs): Now ranked #2 in U.S. EV sales with growing market share, and #1 in Canada.
  • Crossovers: Since refreshing their lineup in 2023, crossovers have grown from 40% to over 46% of total GM sales.
  • China: Reported its 6th consecutive profitable quarter in China (Equity income of $165 million in Q1).

CAPITAL ALLOCATION & SOFTWARE REVENUE

GM is aggressively returning capital to shareholders while scaling its high-margin software business.

  • Share Buybacks: The company retired $800 million in shares in Q1 alone, reducing diluted outstanding shares to 926 million (down from 1.002 billion). This is part of a larger $6.0 billion share repurchase authorization approved in early 2026.
  • Dividends: Raised the quarterly dividend by 20% to $0.18 per share (a $0.72 annualized yield).
  • Software (OnStar/Super Cruise): Deferred software revenue is projected to end 2026 at $7.5 billion. GM expects to realize an additional $400 million in recognized software revenue in 2026, which operates at roughly a 70% gross margin.

It appears that General Motors is doing extremely well, which begs to the question:
Why the urgency to cut costs?


Nike and Wall Street

Why do we keep seeing these bull headlines for Nike with nothing to back it up to show that they can do it. This says Nike could have a 40+ % swing my July of Nike year. What are you thoughts?

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/prediction-nike-stock-set-25-141550863.html


Sc--wed up on 401(k)

I had $98,000. Company spun off. Now I have 48,000.

It shows I have nothing in Honeywell technologies. I only have money in Honeywell aerospace.

This is what did. You get one share of Honeywell aerospace for every two shares of Honeywell technology. Which gets this new total. However, I’m supposed to have the rest of the money in Honeywell technology. They don’t have a right to steal $50,000. This is a rough estimate.


In trouble ?

Oracle is the only major hyperscaler funding its AI buildout with massive debt and deeply negative cash flow (compared to cash-rich peers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google) If backlog conversion stalls or financing terms tighten, the leverage introduces extreme risk