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Divergence - The (Real) U.S. economy, and the stock market.

Divergence -

The U.S. economy, and the stock market; specifically the (AI) trade.

Paradox - AI (Valuations), and (Extreme) volatility; in the stock market.

Recent U.S. economic, and stock market observation(s) over the past week -

The AI trade is back (for now) after reporting from Micron (MU).

AI trade valuation(s) are (trying to make a run back) to the NASDAQ high on 10/29/25 whether justified (or not).

The U.S. economy is (still) moving towards a potential Major Recession in 2026.

The Unemployment rate has reached its' highest level since October 2021 with Corporate layoffs to resume Q1 2026 with claims following.

Q1 2026 is (currently) scheduled to have Major Downsizing in the Corporate world especially in the Technology sector.

ISM manufacturing, otherwise known as PMI; has been down for (9) consecutive month's; since Trump tariffs were enacted.

Finally, November Core CPI (Inflation) came in at 2.7% but was missing data from October due to the U.S. Government shutdown.

Inflation (actually) rose month-to-month.


Divergence - The U.S. economy, and the stock market.

Divergence -

The U.S. economy, and the stock market; specifically the (AI) trade.

Paradox - AI (Valuations), and (Extreme) volatility; in the stock market.

Recent U.S. economic, and stock market observation(s) over the past week -

The AI trade is back (for now) after reporting from Micron (MU).

AI trade valuation(s) are (trying to make a run back) to the NASDAQ high on 10/29/25 whether justified (or not).

The U.S. economy is (still) moving towards a potential Major Recession in 2026.

The Unemployment rate has reached its' highest level since October 2021 with Corporate layoffs to resume Q1 2026 with claims following.

Q1 2026 is (currently) scheduled to have Major Downsizing in the Corporate world especially in the Technology sector.

ISM manufacturing, otherwise known as PMI; has been down for (9) consecutive month's; since Trump tariffs were enacted.

Finally, November Core CPI (Inflation) came in at 2.7% but was missing data from October due to the U.S. Government shutdown.

Inflation (actually) rose month-to-month.


AIP

Anyone have any real insight on what AIP will be? Reposting this. Those without real information need not respond as most of what I’ve seen on this site is total bs. Anyone have more than their opinion that they try to pass off as fact?


Laying off this many people is going to come back and bite the company hard

Cutting roles that deal directly with clients and partners is especially short-sighted, but it won’t stop there. Even the so-called “mundane” jobs carry institutional knowledge that doesn’t show up on a spreadsheet. The idea that AI can just step in and replace people is laughable. AI can barely function without constant babysitting, and it certainly can’t replicate judgment, context, or experience. Every role has its unwritten rules, workarounds, and hard-earned skills. Throwing all of that away and hoping to replace it with cheap offshore labor, half-baked automation, or nothing at all isn’t strategy but laziness and greed. And in the long run, it’s one of the most expensive mistakes a company can make.


Why Oracle taking massive loans building Ai infrastructure for Open Ai? is Open Ai making massive profits to pay off?

They haven't found a way to profit off of AI yet, given the costs. And it's a massive risk.
Remember blockchain, NFTs, and the Metaverse / VR? All giant fails.
Now, LLMs have obviously more practical / actual use cases. But they have plenty of flaws and it's not guaranteed those can all be addressed and it can be converted into a profitable, effective product.


Massive LR incoming

Confirmed massive layoffs happening after the new year. Up to 40% of collab, 25% of sales, 50% of security and 20% of data center will be notified between January 7th - 10th.
G2 quote from All hands meeting: "We must capitalize on growth areas going into Q1 and Q2 26, unfortunately radical measures must be taken to accomplish our business goals with the emerging use of AI. It is not easy to make this decision, but we must let people go"

Managers have warned us to start looking for other positions.
Hardest hit will be engineers on Webex & Contact centre


Lowlights of the staff meeting

Please post fun lowlights of staff meeting.

  • AI and agentic agents. Fortunately B. didn’t talk about autonomous workspace vaporware. Dex was supposed to be competing with control up several years back. Revenue is still not able to cover Bharat’s travel.
  • Guada talking about recognition slack channel to motivate everyone.
  • Someone asking about valuation in 2028. Will Omnissa be around by that time?
  • Suni forced laughter.
  • Simzhu volume is going lower quarter after quarter due to declining revenue.

You should all breathe a little easier, the death knell of Copilot is upon us.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/microsoft-scales-back-ai-goals-because-almost-nobody-is-using-copilot/ar-AA1S5WkO

ChatGPT and Gemini are destroying the competition. Charlie is on the wrong side of this situation due to his financial ties to M$. Time to jettison him and find someone who actually knows what they are doing.


Dell, AI and Tribal Knowledge

As much as Dell keeps talking about implement all aspects of AI, it is still the tribal knowledge dependent tech company I've ever worked at. It's what makes me believe that all the AI evangelicalism is mostly to push server and storage hardware.

I mean how is AI going to make suggestions when the needed information is only available in people's heads? Also with tribal knowledge there are multiple versions of the truth. AI is good at figuring out at least the most consistent version of the truth. But then again it is all tribal knowledge and not documented.


Brian Pieninck announces layoffs

After laying off over 2000 employees in 2025, we were notified in an all hands meeting near the end of November that they were done with cuts "for the rest of the year." During an IT All Hands meeting in December, Brian announced that we should expect a 25-40% reduction in staff due to AI implementation (which they strongly pushed on everyone).


AI isn’t replacing us, but it will still mean more layoffs

Not just because jobs are being shipped overseas. It’s also because AI simply isn’t delivering. They can paper over the AI flop for only so long, and we all know who will end up paying the price for the brilliant idea of throwing massive amounts of money at the latest tech fad, which is unsurprisingly turning out not to be the miracle it was sold as. Leadership seems to know only one solution to every problem imaginable, including bad judgment in spending - more layoffs.


Luxembourg - 370 Cut

Amazon is laying off 370 employees at its European headquarters.

These cuts represent about 8.5 percent of the workforce at that location. The layoffs primarily affect software developers as AI increasingly handles coding tasks. Amazon cited "business needs and local strategies" as the reason for these adjustments. This move follows broader company-wide workforce reductions and a deeper embrace of AI.


Thoughts about the Dec. 16 town hall?

Here’s what I got out of it:

1) There is a new corporate strategy called Lead to One that is about focusing more on the consumer and personalization. (Every 5 years we claim we’re now going to focus on the consumer, but don’t actually make any of the necessary investments and then abandon it. So excuse me if I’m highly skeptical.)

2) Our expenses are way too high and need to be drastically reduced. (We’ve been hearing that for many years and yet the same leadership that hasn’t fixed it is still in place. Where should the blame be placed?)

3) Layoffs will definitely continue. Evanko said we’ll have fewer employees next year than this year. (No surprise there.)

4) We’re counting on AI to be our savior and are going to push as many things to AI as possible.

5) The only business that is performing well is specialty pharmacy.

6) The VillageMD investment and our attempt at creating a care delivery strategy was a failure. (Even though it’s obvious, I’m glad they actually admitted that. Interesting that the failed MDLIVE acquisition wasn’t mentioned though. I guess we just don’t talk about that.)

7) We’re going to do more lobbying and public relations to try to control the narrative about Cigna.

Did anyone hear something different? What did I miss?


Zero su-ks

Impossible to find anything on Zero. Any site keeps spinning for minutes. The much vaunted and showcase implementation of AI enabled agent zero has never worked for me... Keep getting gateway error any time I try to use it. What a joke... Emblematic of the state of technology at the company. Lots of noise and rah rah BS followed by no delivery.


Give employees the gift of better focus

https://blogs.opentext.com/tis-the-season-to-simplify-work-5-ways-ai-helps-teams-wrap-up-the-year-smarter/

  1. Give employees the gift of better focus

Perhaps the most meaningful impact of AI content management is how it changes the employee experience.

By automating repetitive work and simplifying content discovery, teams can focus on higher-value tasks, such as strategy, innovation, and customer experience. It’s a lasting gift: fewer silos, faster collaboration, and a renewed sense of control over information.

This is better than the jelly of the month club, since this is the gift that keeps giving forever, not just the whole year.


Wells Fargo plans to eliminate over 100 positions around Sacramento.

Wells Fargo plans to eliminate 114 positions in Sacramento County, citing cost reductions and expanded use of artificial intelligence. Employees at the Arden Arcade location were notified this week, and the layoffs will begin in February.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/business/article313664050.html


What an id--t

"Famously brutal Fortune 500 CEO reveals the three rules every American must follow to avoid getting laid off as job apocalypse spreads"

Internet Archive version - https://archive.ph/DwCYF

His 3 points:
1) Go to the office every day - 'One of the problems in our society today is isolation. And working from home stems more isolation.' - Stankey

So he's worried about our mental health now?

2) Take AI training classes, NOW! - dang, I agree with Stankey on something. It's a sad day.

3) Forget loyalty, focus on results - He described the employer-employee relationship as transactional and constantly up for renewal.

Every day, you have to earn your keep at the company,' he said, adding that, 'similarly, the company has to earn the right to your skills.'

Funny. If we really went by his own measure, he should be the first one fired.


I'm Sorry Dave, I Can't Do That....

Hal2000 was conflicted in his assignments. I can't wait to see what happens when our AI models get surreptitious assignments with override codes like Hal2000 did. Yes, its coming!
"I'm sorry Bob, I just can't activate your account right now. You have been deemed a risk....please step aside and wait for the authorities....."
Yeah and there is no coming back from that scenario. Nope. None.


More West Des Moines layoffs

  • Wells Fargo announced it will lay off an additional 25 workers from its Jordan Creek Campus.
  • The company has cut 1,393 Des Moines metro jobs since April 2022, with more reductions expected in 2026.
  • CEO Charlie Scharf cited a push for efficiency and the future impact of artificial intelligence as reasons for workforce changes.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/business/2025/12/12/wells-fargo-layoffs-west-des-moines-jordan-creek/87733975007/


Wells Fargo / Jordan Creek

Wells Fargo will lay off an additional 25 employees from its Jordan Creek campus. These latest reductions are effective February 6, 2026. This brings Wells Fargo's announced layoffs in the Des Moines metro to 152 since September, and 1,393 since April 2022. The company stated the changes reflect a push for efficiency and alignment with market conditions. CEO Charlie Scharf also indicated that artificial intelligence is expected to impact future workforce adjustments.