#economy

Oil prices, and U.S. jobs created (nationally) -

• 2025 - 125,000 Total - Revised downwards from 181,000.

• 2026 - 34,000 Total - Non-Revised.

Higher Energy prices will remain for months (or longer) even if the U.S. Iran War ends (in the future) due to numerous factors including (the already damaged Energy infrastructure in the Mideast) with Iran remaining in control of the Strait of Hormuz.

• The U.S. will see  Oil prices (the highest) during the Summer peak season, Asia; and Europe; will see it first-now.

LNG not so much in the U.S. but that also applies as well.

• The U.S. economy, and (Wall Street) are (currently) underestimating the effects of higher Oil; and LNG prices to a lessor extent, on consumer spending; and jobs.

It will (not if) affect numerous product pricing, and supply chains; in virtually every industry.

https://youtube.com/shorts/umJyw6g9R1g?is=l2eEP_CMCFZvKHMI

Is it possible? When do you think it will happen?

No matter how often you refer to us as “resources”

Lots of analyst predicting it will decline.

Louisiana recorded 1,232 initial unemployment filings. This data covers the week ending March 14. This figure is 0.6% lower than the previous week. Initial claims were also 19% lower than last year. Continued claims fell to 6,260, a 44% decrease from last year.

https://www.businessreport.com/article/fewer-layoffs-for-now-louisiana-jobless-claims-are-nearly-20-lower-than-2025

What happened at 3pm today? Stock took an instant hit. 1.40 to 1.34 in an hour.
Did lean six sigma or the java ui do this? Is it Fat five beta now? Is there a new jdk ui?

Per Barrons, Chevron has moved into top 20 valued American companies bc of Iran and analysts say oil will be in triple digits for years.

All that value will trickle down to us lowly ants, right?

Right?

If you want to know where the U.S. economy is (Truely) headed in the next 12 months.

Take a look at the (Conference Board) LEI - Leading Economic Index.

The U.S. National debt -

• Under Trump just blew past $39.0 Trillion (and rising).

It has grown $1.0 Trillion since late October 2025 (5 months).

• Cumulated Interest per year paid by U.S. taxpayers is now $993.0 Billion a year (and rising) to outside Investors who finance it (U.S. based, Japan; China; etc.) per usdebtclock.

Wars are (Very costly) and will (not if) move this much higher, coupled with Corporate Tax breaks; and for the wealthy over 10 years ($600.0 Billion from the Trump Tax bill).

This will (not if) affect the U.S. economy in a (Very negative) way as time moves along.

These are the facts.

Many workers are now choosing to stay in their current jobs. This trend reflects a slowing job market and reduced worker confidence. The expected quit rate dropped to a decade low of 15.9% in February. Employers also cut 92,000 jobs in February, raising labor market concerns. A low quit rate typically signals slower wage growth and fewer opportunities.

http://www.msn.com/en-in/news/india/workers-hold-on-to-jobs-as-layoffs-rise-and-quit-rate-falls-to-decade-low/ar-AA1XVJVE?apiversion=v2&domshim=1&noservercache=1&noservertelemetry=1&batchservertelemetry=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1

This is not a post about AI. I barely do any feature work anymore. I feel like with everything happening in the US and the global situation, I just have zero motivation to work or produce work for these companies. Just waiting to see how long I can keep this going, wondering how many are on the same boat.

With everything going on it's hard to take anything seriously anymore. And knowing that my company is trying everything they can to replace me with either AI or someone offshore doesn't make me interested in helping them fulfill their profit goals.

At the same time, I don't want to lose my job in this economy either. But how do you stay motivated like this?

As CVX price and bbl go up with the multiple conflicts, will that save us from additional layoffs?
Or is this short term?

SAVE YOUR MONEY! STAGFLATION - High Oil Prices, AI taking over jobs, Layoffs will occur earlier than later. Corporations will feel the pain with increase in inflation. Markets will decline for months. Just because the war stops doesn't mean things get back to normal right away. It will take years to recover and go back to normal. USA debt increases from $38 Trillion to $40 Trillion soon.

Many companies will pull forward their layoffs that were planned for later on the year (in the second half of 2026) to the first half of 2026 due to oil price increases and the cost of war, inflation causing everything to go up.
Save your money. Forget the vacation and brand name anything. Save enough money to pay your bills and put food on the table. AI was already taking jobs and now higher cost of OIL will also do the same.

Fed Interest rates -

Having studied the past several Major recessions (dotcom bust - Mar 2000 - Oct 2002, and 2008 GFC included), this is what I found.

When the Fed started cutting Interest rates (and kept it going) it signaled the start of a Major recession.

The (current) Fed quandary is rising Inflation which will get (Much worse) with the (new) 15.0% Trump Import tariffs, and the U.S. Iran War causing energy prices (both Oil, and LNG) to rise; which also affects both product; and food prices.

When the Fed started doing that it signaled the U.S. economy was in (Very serious) trouble.

LEI - Leading Economic Index (6 months out), and the CEI - Coincident Economic Index (current) the (True) state of the U.S. economy.

For the past several months, the LEI has (Consistently trended Down) and has fallen below the CEI; the chart shows that the U.S. economy should be (or is headed towards a Major recession) within 6 months; or so (if current trends continue).

U.S. GDP is (currently) being (manipulated positive) by spending - U.S. government, AI; and Healthcare; along with Fed stimulus.

These are the facts.

Year on Year Record Corporate Profits no longer translates to job creation but rather job elimination.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-layoffs-deflation-us-economy-job-market-outlook-citi-2026-2

Consequences of AI -

AI has (some) innovations, but.

AI will replace (most, not all) computer dependent jobs (that can be) in the future, (easily) in the Millions over time; through automation efficiencies.

AI will take away Tax revenues (from those employees that were replaced) who contribute to consumer spending which will (not if) have a very Negative impact on the U.S. economy.

AI will create (some) high paying jobs, but unless Taxes are Increased on Corporations; and the wealthy; there will (not if) be a Major shortfall in Tax revenue.

The U.S. National debt is (currently) $38.7 Trillion (and rising) per usdebtclock, with $990.0 Billion a year in Interest paid by U.S. taxpayers to outside Investors (U.S. based, Japan; China; etc.) that finance it over time.

Wars are (Always) costly over time (but sometimes necessary to defend U.S. National security), and the U.S. National debt will spike because of it.

These are the facts.

Treasury yields are declining amid signs that U.S. employers are retaining workers. Weekly jobless claims rose to 212,000. This figure was below economists' expectations of 215,000. The 10-year yield fell to 4.039%. The two-year yield also declined to 3.467%.

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-022626/card/treasury-yields-decline-as-u-s-layoffs-remain-elusive-cQ7S9mWF9puLUqEWI92p?modCode=hp_LEDE_C_LC_1&gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfX_YIfuQa5Ca5WG66rFZPUG1GRxm3INy6W67CZxMQh_p4H5zygHiXo&gaa_ts=69a07f82&gaa_sig=6nxh6zbqGCOF--T1eFe4jomaRmICcFXe6MD1Gnl8i161uhSOt64UD1BPzRoxB9FxA5-KB3cb4POt5V7cTR-sEQ%3D%3D

Wall Street is down today because of this speculation about AI's economic effects. It's well worth reading:

https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

everytime I log onto linkedin basically every other post is someone posting something about being laid off and its terrible. if we get a roughly 30 percent unemployment rate like many people think what does that mean for our own jobs

https://www.uri.edu/news/2026/02/r-i-s-economy-has-disappointing-close-to-year-momentum-dissipated-says-uri-economist/

A lot of companies have recently announced layoffs across New York State, from the Hudson Valley all the way to Buffalo. So far in 2026, nearly 3,000 positions have disappeared statewide, signaling a major shift in the labor market.

https://hudsonvalleypost.com/every-new-york-company-planning-2026-layoffs/

Initial unemployment benefit filings decreased in Georgia last week. The U.S. Department of Labor reported this data on Thursday. New jobless claims fell to 4,470 for the week ending January 31. This was a decrease from 4,637 claims the previous week. Nationally, U.S. unemployment claims increased to 231,000 last week.

https://www.augustachronicle.com/story/news/2026/02/07/unemployment-numbers/88526868007/

Arizona's economy currently shows slow job and income growth. Housing affordability remains a challenge, and permits are down. Retail sales, however, have accelerated strongly through September. The state's economic growth is forecast to accelerate next year. Job gains, personal income, and sales are all expected to rise in 2026.

https://azbigmedia.com/business/heres-why-the-arizona-economy-is-poised-to-accelerate/

Initial unemployment claims in Indiana rose last week. The U.S. Department of Labor reported this increase. New jobless claims reached 3,741 for the week ending January 31. This was an increase from 3,186 the previous week.

https://www.southbendtribune.com/story/news/2026/02/08/unemployment-numbers/88526902007/

Initial unemployment claims in Delaware rose last week. The U.S. Department of Labor reported this increase on February 5. New jobless claims in Delaware reached 458 for the week ending January 31. This was an increase from 327 claims the previous week.

• https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/local/2026/02/07/delaware-unemployment-claims-rise-find-out-how-many-were-filed/88526832007/

The earth's resources are limited.

So. nothing is going to grow forever.

So, revenues/profits of no company is going to grow forever.

So, it is better to do profit booking in the stock market.

As I expected. After the recent "pumped and jacked" earnings the stock "popped" but I knew like a balloon in a hole in it it would fritter away. Value trap. Stay away.

Virginia saw an increase in initial unemployment claims last week. The Labor Department released this information. Claims totaled 3,693 for the period ending January 24. This number rose from 2,895 claims reported previously. Nationally, U.S. unemployment claims saw a slight decrease.

https://www.newsleader.com/story/news/2026/01/30/unemployment-numbers/88413664007/

Vermont's initial weekly unemployment claims decreased last week. The Vermont Department of Labor reported 416 new claims for January 24, 2026. These new claims are now at typical seasonal levels. However, total ongoing claims remain high at 4,330. Manufacturing, service, and construction sectors saw shifts in claim percentages.

https://vermontbiz.com/news/2026/january/30/weekly-unemployment-claims-fall-usual-seasonal-levels

North Carolina saw a decline in initial unemployment benefit filings last week. The U.S. Department of Labor reported this data on Thursday. New jobless claims in the state fell to 3,224. This figure is down from 3,930 the previous week. Nationally, U.S. unemployment claims also decreased to 209,000.

https://www.fayobserver.com/story/news/2026/01/31/unemployment-numbers/88413557007

Montana saw a drop in initial unemployment claims last week. The U.S. Department of Labor released this data. Claims fell to 929 for the week ending January 24. This number was down from 1,059 the prior week. National unemployment claims also decreased slightly.

https://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2026/01/31/unemployment-numbers/88413498007/

Missouri lawmakers are debating a plan to replace the state income tax. Governor Mike Kehoe's proposal would instead implement increased sales taxes. Voters would decide on this change in November if the bill passes. Supporters believe it will attract businesses and young professionals to Missouri. Critics worry about the financial impact on residents with fixed incomes.

https://www.kctv5.com/2026/01/28/missouri-debates-major-shift-income-tax-sales-tax/

https://www.businessinsider.com/general-strike-ice-protest-minneapolis-2026-1

Layoffs at tech companies like Amazon and Meta are impacting the Seattle region. 2,303 Amazon employees will have their final day with the company starting Monday. Meta plans to lay off 331 workers in March. Reports suggest another 16,000 Amazon job cuts could affect 2,600 more local workers. Experts describe this as the "scariest time economically" for the region since the Great Recession.

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/scariest-time-economically-since-great-recession-layoffs-hit-struggling-seattle-region/6MTQN5XH7NC55INEXAXLUOXOC4/

Seattle’s economy is under heavy pressure as layoffs continue to spread across the region. The scale of the job cuts is being described as the most challenging period since the Great Recession, pointing to widespread instability for workers and businesses alike

Layoffs are anticipated in the Bay Area. Recent economic data appears discouraging. This situation suggests a challenging period. Businesses may soon consider workforce reductions. The overall economic outlook remains uncertain.

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/video/news/local/layoffs-loom-discouraging-economic-data/4021928/

Bay Area, California

*S Labor Department Reports Jobless Claims Remain Low at 200,000
by MSN News:

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/us-jobless-claims-steady-at-200000-in-sign-of-low-layoffs/ar-AA1UK1Gb

US initial jobless claims rose slightly to 200,000 last week. This figure, for the week ended January 17, indicates a labor market with limited layoffs. The four-week moving average of new applications fell to a two-year low of 201,500. Continuing claims also dropped to 1.85 million, the lowest since November. Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to maintain current interest rates next week.

Arizona's economy is currently growing at a slower-than-usual pace. Job growth remains modest, and housing permit activity has declined this year. Phoenix consumer price inflation has significantly moderated below the national average. Economic growth for Arizona is forecast to accelerate in the coming year. Job and income growth are projected to increase, though housing permits may still decline.

https://azbigmedia.com/business/heres-why-the-arizona-economy-is-poised-to-accelerate/