Fed Interest rates -
Having studied the past several Major recessions (dotcom bust - Mar 2000 - Oct 2002, and 2008 GFC included), this is what I found.
When the Fed started cutting Interest rates (and kept it going) it signaled the start of a Major recession.
The (current) Fed quandary is rising Inflation which will get (Much worse) with the (new) 15.0% Trump Import tariffs, and the U.S. Iran War causing energy prices (both Oil, and LNG) to rise; which also affects both product; and food prices.
When the Fed started doing that it signaled the U.S. economy was in (Very serious) trouble.
LEI - Leading Economic Index (6 months out), and the CEI - Coincident Economic Index (current) the (True) state of the U.S. economy.
For the past several months, the LEI has (Consistently trended Down) and has fallen below the CEI; the chart shows that the U.S. economy should be (or is headed towards a Major recession) within 6 months; or so (if current trends continue).
U.S. GDP is (currently) being (manipulated positive) by spending - U.S. government, AI; and Healthcare; along with Fed stimulus.
These are the facts.