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Trump Pushed for Lower Gas Prices and Got Them. The Oil Industry is Paying the Price.

Trump Pushed for Lower Gas Prices and Got Them. The Oil Industry is Paying the Price.

Jake Conley · Breaking Business News Reporter
Updated Thu, February 26, 2026 at 3:45 AM MST

During his State of the Union address on Tuesday night, President Trump touted an energy industry strengthened by the success of his "Drill, baby, drill" policy, a dual mandate of more hydrocarbon drilling and lower gas prices.
A year into Trump's second term, oil and gas production is at or near all-time highs, and gasoline prices average below $3 per gallon nationally.
But for the US oil and gas industry, the president's ambitions have come at a cost.
"Capital efficiencies and returns drive our investment decisions," said an oil and gas operator responding to the Dallas Federal Reserve's fourth quarter energy survey.
"If economic conditions worsen, drilling and completion activities will cease in 2026."
The US produced 13.78 million barrels per day of oil in November, according to the most recent government data, just barely off the record high recorded in October. Daily dry gas production also hit its highest level on record in November after advancing nine straight months.
At the pump, where crude oil accounts for roughly 50% of the cost of a gallon of gas, Americans are seeing the lower prices Trump campaigned on.
But that record production and those low pump prices have come just as the global oil market has entered a period of deep oversupply of between 2 million and 3 million barrels per day — fundamentals that saw crude oil prices drop roughly 20% through 2025. Prices are up through the start of 2026, driven by geopolitical factors and an improved demand outlook. But they remain several dollars per barrel lower than they were a year ago, and as one respondent to the Dallas Fed survey said, "actual industry costs continue in one direction: up."
"Decreasing oil prices are making many of our firm’s wells noneconomic," another respondent noted. The same dynamic is playing out in the natural gas sector, where the energy product is "becoming an expense to operators," one survey respondent said. "Last month, we paid our gas purchaser to take our gas because prices fell below contract price, and we paid the difference to the purchaser. Never in my 50 years in the oilfield has this ever happened."
Activity in the oil and gas sector — which measures a variety of metrics such as employment figures and capex spending — has now declined for three straight quarters, according to the Dallas Fed, even as production has increased.
The effect is not confined to smaller independent oil and gas drilling firms, which are highly exposed to oil price fluctuations.
Even as Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), the country's largest integrated oil and gas operators, increased their production and beat analyst estimates on top-line revenue, both companies recorded year-on-year declines in annual profit as the oil glut depressed prices, shrinking their margins.
One sign that business is struggling in the US: Oilfield services firms such as Halliburton (HAL) and Calfrac Well Services (CFWFF) are increasingly sending their fracking equipment overseas, where demand is stronger, according to data from Primary Vision, first reported by Bloomberg.
The fracking bo-m of the early 2000s made the US the world's largest producer of oil and gas, but the shale industry has been struggling amid declining commodity prices. Nearly one-fifth of the fracking equipment deployed in Texas's Permian Basin has now been shipped overseas, the Primary Vision data shows.
"I think there's incentives to move equipment outside the US, which we're doing in some cases," Halliburton president and CEO Jeffrey Miller said during the company's fourth quarter earnings call in January. "I think the bias is towards, there's not investment in the [US] market in terms of more equipment and equipment is wearing out, which we know, and equipment, in some cases, is moving outside the US."
For the broader energy industry, the picture isn't all gloomy.
The US is about to enter the heavy driving season, when gasoline demand spikes, driving crude oil prices up, and January jobs data far exceeded expectations in another sign of transportation demand.
The federal government's Energy Information Administration now expects natural gas production to grow as new pipelines come online in the Permian basin, with prices expected to increase and incentivize more activity.
Yet, the count of drilling rigs in the US has decreased by roughly 7% year on year, according to data collected by the drill-field services firm Baker Hughes in late February. For US oil and gas upstream producers — the centerpiece of Trump's "Drill, baby, drill" ambitions — more drilling and lower gas prices may push their business the wrong way.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-pushed-for-lower-gas-prices-and-got-them-the-oil-industry-is-paying-the-price-100021352.html


Future operating model will lead to more layoffs

The long term goal is for every operating unit including the grassroots upstream oil & gas projects to be operated by 3rd party contract companies who pay far less in health care benefits, pensions, and salaries.

The Guyana offshore upstream operations business model is a textbook example of how ExxonMobil wants to operate our facilities in the future.


Guyana Technical Training College - ExxonMobil Business Model for Our Offshore Assets

This weekend I had the privilege of joining over 1,000 Port Mourant residents, government officials, along with the team from ExxonMobil Guyana and our coventurers for the official opening of GTTCI.

Seeing the newest cohort of trainees, particularly the several young women, who will be the first to complete their full training right here in Guyana was truly remarkable. Their achievements will mark yet another important milestone worth celebrating.

GTTCI will play a critical role in preparing many to operate the oil and gas assets safely and reliably, while also equipping individuals with skills that create opportunities beyond the sector. I look forward to witnessing the continued impact that this institution will have on its students and the development of Guyana’s workforce for years to come.

With the Guyana Energy Conference & Supply Chain Expo starting tomorrow, it’s another exciting week in Guyana!

https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/exxonmobilguyana


Is Anadarko and OK oil and gas losing it position as a top oil and gas basin

OKC based oil companies companies are exiting the city and state for Houston Texas. Ovintiv has divested Anadarko holdings. 10 years ago the investment world couldn’t get enough of the SCOOP and STACK. Now the investment community is far less interested in any OK investment. What factors are at play and what will OK oil industry look like in the near future.


ExxonMobil’s Strategic M&A Evolution

Publish Date: 27th June 2025

ExxonMobil, the world’s largest publicly traded oil & gas supermajor, was formed via the $73.7 billion merger of Exxon and Mobil in 1999. As of 2023, it employs around 72,000 people worldwide, with annual revenue of approximately $334 billion and total assets worth about $340 billion. The company operates across upstream (oil & gas exploration and production), downstream (refining and chemicals), and chemical sectors, with a growing portfolio in LNG, carbon capture, and advanced chemicals. It manages vast upstream assets in the U.S., Guyana, and Indonesia, and downstream assets in 20 countries. Growth initiatives focus on the Permian Basin, Guyana offshore development, and LNG projects.

Historical M&A Deals (Chronological, up to 2023)

Year Target Type Value (approx)

1919 Humble Oil & Refining Acquisition –
1928 Creole Petroleum (Venezuela) Acquisition –
1984 Superior Oil Co. Acquisition $5.7 bn
1999 Mobil Corp. Merger $81 bn
2009 XTO Energy Acquisition $36 bn + $11 bn debt
2011 Phillips Resources, TWP Acquisition $1.69 bn
2012 Land swap with Denbury (Bakken) Swap $1.6 bn
2012 Celtic Exploration (Canada) Acquisition $2.6 bn
2013 Esso Card & BOPP films Divestiture –
2014 HK pumped storage stake Stake sale $33 m USD hong kong currency
2015 Chalmette Refining Divestiture $322 m
2017 InterOil Corp. Acquisition $2.5 bn
2018 Federal (Indonesia lubricants) Acquisition $436 m
2019 Norway oil & gas assets Divestiture $4 bn
2021 Santoprene polymers Divestiture $1.15 bn
2021 UK & North Sea upstream Divestiture $1 bn
2022 Billings Refinery & assets Divestiture $310 m
2022 Nigeria MPNU sale (Seplat) Divestiture $800 m
2023 Denbury Inc. Acquisition $4.9 bn
2023 Pioneer Natural Resources Merger ~$60 bn ($64.5B incl. debt)
This list encompasses 20+ key transactions illustrating ExxonMobil’s strategic expansion, divestiture, and portfolio shaping moves.

Recent M&A Activity (2024–2025)

Pioneer Natural Resources
Completed in May 2024, the $60 bn all‑stock merger doubled Exxon’s Permian footprint, pushing production to ~1.3 → 2 MM boe/d by 2027. Expected synergies exceed $3 bn/year, $1 bn above initial projections.

Esso France Sale
As of May 2025, Exxon is negotiating to divest its 82.9% stake in Esso France to Canada’s North Atlantic Groupe, valued at €149/share (€63 distribution prior) with deal closing expected late 2025.

Thai Gas Assets
In Q1 2025, Exxon sold stakes in the E5, E5N, and EU1 onshore blocks in Thailand to Horizon Oil for ~$30 m plus contingent payments.

European Refining/Chemical Divestitures
Closed late 2024, Exxon sold Fos-sur-Mer refinery and Gravenchon chemical plant to Rhône Energies for undisclosed billions, exiting aging European assets.

Divestiture Strategy & Notable Deals
European Exit: Norway assets ($4 bn), UK North Sea ($1 bn), French refinery/chemicals (late 2024), exiting high-cost, regulated markets to streamline operations.
Emerging Markets: Sale of Nigeria MPNU ($800 m) to Seplat to exit less profitable or complex jurisdictions.

Asia Onshore Gas Small-scale Thai assets sold to focus on higher-return offshore and unconventional development.

What Worked & What Didn’t?
Successes

Permian Expansion via Pioneer – strategic consolidation, operational synergies, and cost savings ($3 bn/yr). Rapid integration established Exxon as shale powerhouse.

XTO Acquisition (2010) – foundational pivot into U.S. shale gas, increasing production and positioning Exxon in unconventional plays.

Carbon Capture via Denbury (2023) – strengthened Exxon’s CCS portfolio, aligning with evolving regulatory and investor pressures.

Divestitures – consistent capital recycling (e.g. Europe, Nigeria) fueling investment in high-return projects and preserving financial discipline.

Missteps
Legacy asset rationalization—exiting older assets was prudent, but slower than some competitors, raising concerns about timing.

Scale risk – mega-merger with Pioneer increases integration complexity and debt exposure; long-term commodity price risk remains.

Strategic Rationale
ExxonMobil’s M&A strategy hinges on focusing on advantaged assets, divesting underperforming or noncore operations, and diversifying into emerging arenas:

Upstream deepen shale footprint for scale synergies (Pioneer), enhance technology leadership (XTO).

Carbon strategy build CCS capacity via Denbury.

Portfolio optimization free cash from divestitures reallocated to Permian, LNG, Guyana offshore (Whiptail), and advanced chemicals (IPA for semiconductor grade).
These moves support financial discipline, long-term shareholder returns, and energy transition resilience.

Outlook
Integration priority: ensuring smooth assimilation of Pioneer & Denbury operations without cost overruns.

Divestiture momentum continued sales in low-growth regions; proceeds will fund Guyana development, Permian drilling, and LNG expansion.

Transition alignment investment in CCS, chemical diversification, and possibly lithium upstream (non-M&A) suggests shifting capital mix.

Conclusion
From its monumental 1999 merger to the transformative 2024 Pioneer deal, ExxonMobil has leveraged M&A to transition from an integrated oil giant to a strategically focused energy leader. Its approach—acquire scale and expertise in cores, divest noncore assets, and reinvest in next-gen capabilities—has so far paid off, enhancing production capacity and portfolio strength. However, as the energy landscape evolves, bold bets must be matched with meticulous execution and further strategic clarity.

https://mandaequilibrium.com/exxonmobils-strategic-ma-evolution/


Shell failing promises as it seeks exit from PA

Story by Danielle Smith

Shell is reportedly struggling to recoup its massive investment in Pennsylvania’s petrochemical sector, with weak fourth-quarter returns renewing concerns the project has underdelivered on jobs, growth and profits.

The company is seeking a buyer or partner for its Shell Polymers Monaca plant and may never fully recover its $14 billion investment in the venture, according to a report from the Ohio River Valley Institute.

Kathy Hipple, research fellow at the institute and the report's co-author, said data show Shell received a major state tax subsidy intended to build a regional petrochemical hub. The company has already collected about $90 million and could keep receiving roughly $60 million to $65 million a year if the company continues to purchase and process more than a billion gallons of ethane annually.

She pointed out Shell has begun to sell off tax credits intended to support the local petrochemical industry.

"By law, they are able to sell these tax credits," Hipple acknowledged. "So far, they seem to have sold 100% of the tax credits that they have received to other companies that are not in the manufacturing industry. They're usually in the insurance industry. Sometimes they're not even in the region."

Hipple noted the Pennsylvania Resource Manufacturing Tax Credit’s “lookback provision,” set to trigger in 2028, could allow legislators to reevaluate the flow of tax credits to Shell Polymers Monaca. Lawmakers can assess whether the facility has met its original objectives and if it has not, consider modifying the incentive.

Anne Keller, also at the institute, said the state’s tax credit structure was unusually generous. The program effectively gave Shell a five‑cent discount on every gallon of ethane feedstock the plant uses. She spoke with an industry analyst who explained lawmakers initially discussed capping the subsidy at 30,000 barrels per day but the limit never made it into the final legislation.

"The bottom line was that the plant use it, and that is a very, very significant discount for a plant like this," Keller emphasized. "These are big commodity manufacturing facilities and feedstock is one of the critical cost elements that allows them to be profitable."

The report stated Shell has not fulfilled its commitments for job creation or local economic development. Since the 2012 announcement of its ethane cr--ker project, Beaver County’s GDP has fallen 12%, the local population has dropped by 3%, and employment has declined more than 13%.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/shell-failing-promises-as-it-seeks-exit-from-pa


Stop calling me!

I was a contractor at Exxon a few years on a year long contract. When they got rid of me after I got their project done faster than expected they told me I was more than welcome to come back.

I have had at 4 instances where I was the right person for the job and right when things get moving in the right direction i get ghosted. Apparently I am not the right person to play in their dollhouse, which is fine. THEN STOP CALLING ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just because you like wasting your time doesn't mean others like it. And judging by the posts on this site, a lot of others don't like it either.

So instead of prank calling people to come play at your unrewarding shitehole, just grow up and do something productive like seggs work on 45!


Working at XOM vs bp

I currently work at bp and was approached by a recruiter with XOM. Would that be a good move right now? I’m not happy with bp, for obvious reasons - poor strategy, poor company performance, poor leadership, limited career growth opportunity, etc. From my perspective ExxonMobil looks leaps and bounds better, but I would love to hear thoughts from y’all.


The new "Venz Oil" deals are in the air. So give your best guess on how it will effect M.P.

Excitement is brewing over the huge Venz Oil possibilities since it holds the worlds largest oil reserves. Temptation to move all assets there could be lucrative. Better make sure any new contract covers overseas relocation and exact wording in new contract for different laws for any country and not just in U, S.A. else that boat could leave without you on board in the near future.


Gulf of America assets and job security

It’s evident that several Shell GoA assets will pass the inflection threshold for divestment or continued production to abandonment.

It’s now common knowledge that 2028 the ELT will have to decide on non performing assets in the GoM before production and remaining reserves become unprofitable for divestment.


Shell Gulf of America 2028: impress or divest?

Lots of rumblings from both consulting firms and at higher levels in Houston that a significant amount of Shell’s GoA assets in 2028 reach an opex/profitability threshold that will require the ELT to decide whether to divest or commit to cradle to grave with P&A and decommissioning that may far exceed 10 Billion dollars.

Wisdom of crowds and insiders.
What assets get divested?
Can Shell do marginal production management?
Will Shell ride the Idol Iron Clock?

Other interpretations and ideas welcome


AI is not helping Venezuela’s security-compromised oil industry

The company’s SAP software is still down and many processes are being done manually, the people said. The company still cannot access system platforms on which accounting, payments and production data run.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-15/venezuelan-oil-industry-is-running-on-whatsapp-after-cyberattack


Sell sell sell

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-mitsubishi-exploring-sale-options-their-stakes-lng-canada-sources-say-2026-01-16/

Ok so you’ve got an asset with cost of supply advantage , so much so you want to double its throughput… what should you do with it ???
I know!! I know!! DILUTE your ownership to buy my shares!!!!!!


More than 200 jobs to be cut as Valero closes California refinery

Valero Energy Corp. has announced plans to eliminate 237 positions at its Benicia refinery as it prepares to wind down operations at the facility, one of the last fuel-making plants in California. In a letter to state employment regulators and local officials, the company said it expects the closure to be permanent, with layoffs taking place from March 15 through July 1. The impacted employees are not represented by a union and make up most of the refinery’s 348-person workforce.

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/valero-to-cut-more-than-200-jobs-as-california-refinery-closes


The job market in Midland is holding steady

Low oil prices and slower activity are starting to raise concerns about potential layoffs, but for now, major job cuts don’t appear likely unless market conditions continue to deteriorate after the first quarter.

https://www.beaumontenterprise.com/business/article/permian-basin-jobs-outlook-21293090.php


Exxon studies Venezuela return as Chevron plots immediate production bump

By Sheila Dang and Jarrett Renshaw

Jan 9 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods said on Friday the U.S. oil major is ready to evaluate a potential return to Venezuela in what would be a stunning development after its assets in the South American country were nationalized nearly 20 years ago.

Woods, however, said Venezuela was currently "uninvestable" and significant legal changes are needed. The comments came during a White House meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump that was hastily arranged less than a week after U.S. forces captured and removed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power in a brazen overnight raid.

"It's absolutely critical in the short term that we get a technical team in place to assess the current state of the industry and the assets, understand what will be involved to help the people of Venezuela get production back on the market," Woods said, adding that the visit could happen once appropriate security guarantees were in place.

He told Trump that Exxon needed durable investment protections introduced and the country's hydrocarbons law also needed to be reformed.

"We've had our assets seized there twice. And so, you can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes from what we've historically seen here and what is currently the state," the CEO said.

Chevron Vice Chairman Mark Nelson, who was seated next to Trump adviser Stephen Miller, highlighted the company's 100-year history in Venezuela and its current status as the only American oil major currently operating there. He said the company is ready to increase liftings at its joint ventures with state oil company PDVSA by 100% immediately.

"We are also able to increase our production within our own disciplined investment schemes by about 50% just in the next 18 to 24 months," Nelson said.

CONOCOPHILLIPS CALLS FOR BANK INVOLVEMENT

Exxon, ConocoPhillips and Chevron were for decades the most prominent partners of state company PDVSA, contributing to developing output at the vast Orinoco Belt, which is now the country's main oil region.

The government of late President Hugo Chavez nationalized the industry between 2004 and 2007, and while Chevron negotiated deals to partner with PDVSA, ConocoPhillips and Exxon left the country and filed for prominent arbitration cases shortly after.

Venezuela now owes over $13 billion collectively to Conoco and Exxon for the expropriations. Conoco has tried to seize PDVSA's foreign assets and is participating in the Delaware auction of Venezuela-owned Citgo Petroleum's parent to recover part of the money.

ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance, who also attended the meeting, said that PDVSA may need to be restructured if he were to consider a possible return to the country.

He said banks - including Exim Bank - need to be involved in any discussions to deliver the financing and the billions of dollars needed to repair the energy infrastructure.

Lance told Trump that ConocoPhillips is one of the largest non-sovereign creditors of Venezuela.

"You'll get a lot of your money back," Trump told Lance, adding that he envisioned starting with an "even plate" and not look at what people lost in the past.

(Reporting by Bo Erickson and Jarrett Renshaw in Washington and Sheila Dang and Marianna Parraga in Houston, Editing by Nia Williams, Nathan Crooks and Bill Berkrot)