How much longer will this outfit last till its bankrupt or bought out? 5 years, 10, ???
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Feels like people are arguing two different points here.
Yeah, NOV builds a ton of stuff. And a lot of it is legit. NOVOS, Agitator, bits, coatings, even the robotics work; none of that is fake innovation. It’s real engineering and it does make a difference out in the field.
But most of it is still improving the same job, not changing the job.
Better bit, less vibration, longer run life, some automation layered on top; that helps the rig run smoother, no doubt. But it doesn’t really shift who owns the process or how decisions get made. It just makes the existing system work better.
That’s probably why you can rattle off a long list of products and still have people saying “where’s the innovation?” They’re not talking about tools, they’re talking about something that actually changes the game.
The only things that feel like they could push it in that direction are NOVOS and the robotics side. If those just stay tied to individual pieces of equipment, then it’s more of the same. If they actually become the thing that runs the rig, coordinates everything, and closes the loop between planning and execution, that’s a different conversation.
On the bankruptcy or buyout talk; that part feels off and without having done a bit of research into the companies numbers.
This isn’t a company hanging on by a thread. It’s still throwing off cash and has equipment everywhere. That kind of footprint doesn’t just disappear in five or ten years.
Hard to see a full buyout too. Too big, too messy, too much overlap with the usual players.
What seems more likely is the slow reshuffling you see in a lot of these companies. Trim some parts, double down on others, try to improve margins. Not dramatic, just gradual.
So yeah, NOV’s not going anywhere. The real question is whether it ends up doing something meaningfully different, or just keeps getting a little better at the same thing.
@2dc
Have you seen broad, market shaping innovation from a company larger than 6B that NOV should’ve done instead?
Nobody’s denying those products exist. Many of them are solid engineering upgrades. But listing product names doesn’t answer the actual point: NOV’s innovation has been narrow and mostly incremental within oil & gas. That’s very different from broad, market shaping innovation.
And if the innovation were truly transformational, the value creators would be seeing it. The market cap tells the story; it’s not behaving like a company that’s been delivering breakthrough innovation for the last 20 years. Investors reward real, category shifting creativity, not incremental refinements or growth-by-acquisition (dollar for dollar acquisitions).
So yes, there’s engineering work happening. But the market clearly isn’t viewing it as the kind of innovation that moves a company into a different league. The people that move, package, produce, and assemble the products are not feeling it.
What is going to grow the business in a sustainable way? Buying back shares?
@1zm
No Innovatherm? No Axon? No Drakon? No Agitator ZP? No Evole bits with ION+ cutters? No NOVOS? No Mach 1? No SWIT and Seabox? No heated, corrosion resistant flexible pipes? No telescopic leg cranes? No Enhydra? No wind tri-floaters?
Honestly, are you even paying attention?
@1es living off individual company market share from 20+ years ago. NOV has created value in 20+ years since it bought Varco. It's just been acquisitions to make a behemoth, but there's been no innovation or creativity.
I agree. It’s a never-ending battle. But how were those market leading positions created and sustained in the first place?
Narrow-minded leadership rarely sustains market leadership. History shows that market position alone does not prevent decline. Silicon Valley Bank dominated venture lending. Bed Bath & Beyond once defined the home goods retail category. Revlon was one of the most recognizable global beauty brands.
Leadership decisions and adaptability, not legacy position, determine whether companies maintain or lose their advantage. Companies are ultimately made up of people, not portfolios.
The real question is: how are NOV’s value creators feeling right now?
It’s doomed because of the people at the top, as you cannot see this im assuming your one of them!
It ain’t the company it once was. I sure miss Pete.
@OP These posts are interesting. NOV has several businesses that are a clear market #1, and half a dozen or more that are top-3 in their market. Not sure why anyone thinks NOV is this doomed.