Let’s look at this objectively:

Given the mix of signals: yes, there is a non‐trivial chance something will happen (at least in some business units).
No, the rumor of an across-the-board, massive layoff next Tuesday is not firmly substantiated. It’s best treated as a possibility being promoted by this contributors who are scared or repeating rumors, not a certainty.
So if we were to assign rough probabilities (just an estimate):
A. Some layoffs in certain units in the near term: ~60-70%
B. A broad, company-wide massive layoff next Tuesday: maybe ~30-40% or less
C. The status quo (no major layoffs) is still plausible: ~20-30%

Target has been doing smaller, quiet moves all year. There isn’t a need nor desire to do something so massive that it further erodes consumer confidence, invites more scrutiny from additional boycotts, and possibly drives away top talent while paralyzing those who stay. More likely it will be continued, surgical cuts while bolstering/hiring for areas that leadership believes will drive positive change for shareholders.

I know it’s tough not to panic, but take a breath. You have zero control over what happens to you and your peers, unfortunately.

Bumping this from @bn+1k819dxn1.

#Layoffs #Rumor #Uncertainty #Anxiety

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Most retailers don't lay off heading into Q4, it's usually coming out. Look at Walmart, Wayfair, Amazon... It's always Q1 not Q4.

@bp Yep. And they could give a rats a-s if you made them millions of dollars or if you bust your a-s and don’t close your laptop until 8 PM or work on weekends to meet a tight deadline. Your a-s is still on the street and you’re never safe. That is the sad reality of corporate.

Folks - where there is smoke there is fire - it's accurate -

https://x.com/TheLayoff/status/1980376273269698771

This is indicative of the chatter

Yeah as someone who watches this site pretty regularly (who knows why I do, but I do)... there is way more activity here recently. Who knows what will happen, but I'm personally not taking much solace in any of the reassuring takes rn.

Also there was a lesson I learned in the 2015 RIF. It's that really any day you could be in a reorg, a layoff, or a leadership change. That's just how large organizations operate at times.

@as in addition to this list, there’s a new CEO. There’s almost always a RIF and a restructure when new leadership steps in. It’s how they mark their territory.

We know these things are factual:

TGT put restructuring language in the Q2 earnings report (https://corporate.target.com/news-features/article/2025/08/q2-2025-earnings) and said they're moving with urgency on these goals
Sales are not up to expectations. We can get sales or cut costs.
Q3 ends on Halloween and there's system freeze in Q4. They have 8 more business days to act if they're going to do this.
Competitors are laying off. Most big companies are.
There's bloat. YMMV on how much and where but there are definitely overstaffed teams and less work than there used to be. Some teams are fine but there's some teams and operating models that could be pared (including mine).

If it's not now, I would assume Q1 of next year unless something meaningful changes.

@OP I love your optimism and do not mean this in a rude way but I think right now letting people speculate on what may happen and having them be prepared could be better than false hope. I’d be careful throwing around percentages of the likelihood of each scenario if they aren’t based on anything. The percentage I’d give for the likelihood of a mass layoff next Tuesday is much different than yours. Just know that the people here aren’t fear mongering, they are giving a heads up to help those who will be affected.

Again, I appreciate the attempt at objectivity, but unless you sit close to the top, your guess is as good as anyone else’s. The percentages you put forward are really just your subjective view on the matter.

Thread regarding Target Corp. layoffs

Let’s look at this objectively:

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