Proposed Changes To H-1B Visa Lottery System
The Trump administration plans to end or change the H-1B visa lottery, replacing random selection with a salary-based or weighted system. The Office of Management and Budget is reviewing the rule, which could take effect by March 2026 for the FY 2027 cap.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2025/07/21/new-trump-immigration-policy-ending-the-h-1b-visa-lottery/
A similar rule finalized in 2021 ranked applications by wage levels but was never implemented. That system would have excluded most Level 1 and many Level 2 workers, categories that include recent graduates and early-career professionals. The new rule’s title, “Weighted Selection Process,” suggests a lottery with higher chances for higher-paid applicants.
Critics argue this approach disadvantages international students and undervalues talent in lower-paid fields. More than 70% of U.S. graduate students in computer science and electrical engineering are international, and most are paid at Level 1 or Level 2. Employers in science, medicine and education could also be affected.
Opponents say the change conflicts with the Immigration and Nationality Act, which requires petitions to be considered in filing order. Business groups and universities warn the rule could weaken U.S. competitiveness by limiting young skilled workers. The broader issue remains the low annual H-1B cap, which covers only a small fraction of the labor force and leaves high demand unmet.
Numbers Rollup:
- 85,000 total H-1B cap (65,000 regular plus 20,000 advanced degree)
- 343,981 eligible registrations for FY 2026
- Nearly two-thirds of registrations rejected due to cap limits
- More than 70% of graduate students in computer science and electrical engineering are international
- 83% of computer science PhDs and 80% of electrical engineering PhDs in U.S. R&D are foreign-born
- Level 1 and Level 2 wages cover about 90% of recent international graduates