Kearl alone is 19% of ExxonMobil’s total proven reserve

Someone posted a while ago that ExxonMobil might sell Imperial Oil, and another post stated that Imperial Oil might see Kearl.

Now here is the interesting fact: Kearl alone is 19% of ExxonMobil’s total proven reserve. I can bet, no one will dare sell Kearl. The stock price of ExxonMobil and Imperial Oil will just drop to the bottom. So, no one will dare sell Kearl

Here is the calculation from Copilot:

Here’s a refined breakdown of how much of ExxonMobil’s proved reserves come from Imperial Oil and specifically from the Kearl project:

🌍 1. ExxonMobil’s Total Proved Reserves
• At the end of 2023, ExxonMobil reported about 16.93 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in proved reserves 1.

🛢️ 2. Reserves From Imperial Oil
Imperial Oil is approximately 69.6% owned by ExxonMobil 23. Its operated reserves (which include bitumen) are included in Exxon’s broader totals. Notably:
• Exxon’s total bitumen reserves are reported at 2.414 billion barrels 1.
• Since Imperial operates the Kearl and other bitumen assets, it's reasonable to attribute most of that bitumen figure back to Imperial.
Calculation: 2.414 B bbl / 16.93 B bbl ≈ 14.3%
So, roughly 14% of ExxonMobil’s total proved reserves originate from Imperial Oil.

⛏️ 3. Reserves From the Kearl Oil Sands Project
• The Kearl project holds about 4.6 billion barrels of reserves 45.
• Exxon’s effective share of Kearl is through Imperial’s 69.6% ownership; therefore:
• 4.6 B × 0.696 ≈ 3.2 B barrels attributable to Exxon.
• As a percentage of Exxon’s total proved reserves:
• 3.2 B / 16.93 B ≈ 18.9%
Thus, approximately 19% of ExxonMobil's reserves stem from the Kearl oil sands project.

#Oil #OilAndGas #Project #ProjectManagement

Comment! It's anonymous!

12 replies (most recent on top)

@1jg 100%

Mark my words. Exxon will sell Kearl (or a substantial portion) to invest in the now open Venezuelan oil industry. The oil Sands will have to embrace this new existential threat.

@1hx look forward to low oil prices.

Your chatgpt math is funky there, but regardless now that Venezuela is on the menu, who wants Kearl?

@ek Kearl was added to the resource base in 2011-2.1BOEB for drilling one shallow lease well. They have been playing games ever since. Got Exploration Exec their bonus that year

Kearl was the worst place I ever worked.

US Oil companies are pulling out of California for the same reasons they pull out of Canada. You're delusional.

Also don’t forget, Kearl Oilsands Project is a JV between Imperial and ExxonMobil. Imperial being 71% owner/operator and EM being 29% owner. So that combined with EM owning Imperial ~70%, EM benefits majorly from Kearl.

@OP "Exxon’s total bitumen reserves are reported at 2.414 billion barrels" meanwhile " 4.6 B × 0.696 ≈ 3.2 B barrels attributable to Exxon". How does Exxon have more reserve barrels at Kearl which only produces bitumen, than it does bitumen barrels as a whole?That's some big brain AI logic right there.

@OP unless of course, you sell and immediately announce you are putting the money into buying up more conventional reserves, that you can produce for cheaper.

It's not a useful metric for Kearl because they can't ramp up production the same way as for conventional reserves. ExxonMobil isn't going to hold onto a non-growth, environmentally-risky asset just to play the reserves numbers game. If this was the smart play, all IOCs would be buying up oil sands assets, when in fact it's the complete opposite.

IF the numbers are correct, all you can say is that EM won't be selling ALL of their shares of Kearl AT ONCE. In fact, I think it is likely they are going to reduce the % ownership progressively every year. (Just like what shell did back in 2016)

Thread regarding Imperial Oil Limited layoffs

Kearl alone is 19% of ExxonMobil’s total proven reserve

12 replies (most recent on top)

Post a reply