The Street validates the ORCL strategy based on current price. Next stop is $60/share!
26 replies (most recent on top)
Whether oracle spends money buying back its own stock or on an acquisition or both, really doesn’t matter. Bthese are all delaying tactics to try to prop up the share price and they will all fail. Even analyses are not openly talking about how oracle is not spending money on DCs buy on its own stock. It’s over.
@VqP8iAj-3pxr : 18.5M is NOT dollars BUT shares, you must multiply by shares value at the moment....
Oracle is investing really HUGE amount of money to prop the share value, and cannot go on like this for more than another couple of quarters. this is simply very close to a s---c-de, hoping that something impossible happens in the meanwhile.....
Back below $50. I guess if you think they are going to prop it back up you might buy while the price is low! Or maybe they won't prop it up again?
Other than HPE, I can't see any other large company ORCL could acquire, and that would be a terrible purchase. HPE barely ekes out a profit these days of a few hundred million on nearly $30B in sales. Those are thin margins.
-2sgp. Like, what, Oracle buy IBM? Well at least IBM knows how to deploy metal into a cloud infrastructure...
The LE longterm vision thing about autonomous systems, deep learning, self-patching/repairing etc. was fine. It was the lack of real technical management capability in the company, investment in r&d, inside competition/cannibalization plus counterproductive incentives that wrecked it...too much attention to cheeseparing and not enough to investment in the technological future, imho. #sad
@VqP8iAj-3pxr. This is an easy exercise if you go back and review the last four 10Q/10K SEC filings. On Dec. 14, 2017 the Board approved an additional $12 Billion for buybacks. On Feb. 1, 2018, the Board approves another $12 Billion AND just recently, September 17, 2018, the Board approved $12 Billion. This totals $36 Billion board approved funds to be used for buybacks.
The last four quarterly buyback dollar amounts are as follows. Q2 FY18 = $2B, Q3 FY18 = $4B, Q4 FY18 = $ 5B and Q1 FY19 = $10B. TOTAL = $21 Billion in stock repurchases over the last 4 quarters. Go ahead and grab a calculator if you want to confirm my math. Finally, stay in your own lane and stick to your core competency...
@VqP8iAj-2pbq : 21B$ in one year?????? nope you must have seen another movie. Oracle's board has approved 10B$ buyback in march 2016, and those have been used during FY17 and FY18 (24 months), and average of some 13M/day and this only number should have kept all investors away from ORCL since the current stock level is only due to this massive buyback, if given freedom to follow the real demand, the level would have been much lower.
now (2018) the board has approved another 12B. even in case of massive, really massive buyback (2x what has been in the last years) this will last at least another 12-18 months.
nope, don't expect any crash of the stock anytime soon.
I mean Oracle acquiring another large company, not Oracle being acquired.
Sure, there must be hundreds of companies lined up to buy ORCL. :)
The stuff on this site never ceases to amaze me.
Does is make sense that the buybacks might indicate a coming acquisition?
More than a year to spend an additional $20 Billion they have remaining in their buyback program??? Hardly... the company has already spent $21 Billion over the past 4 quarters and $10 Billion of that came last Q. LE, SC, MH and the Board are destroying the future of the company by dedicating most of their net CASH to repurchase shares. This is why the Company's Capex, which was minimal compared to its peers, declined from $14 Billion to $2 Billion and layoffs have exceeded 20K since 2016. Why you ask this is happening??? it is because LE is leverage all the way to his island and moving forward, 2018 Proxy Statement, the 3 stooges get a big "cash bonus" if the Company increases pretax profits. aka buybacks artificially inflate EPS..... The reckoning is coming fast and swift.
@VqP8iAj-1nnt : evaporated? you don't know what you're talking about dude.... the avg ORCL volume is something like 18.5M, even if you think of massive buybacks and so push this to 30M it means to "evaporate" 12B you will need more than a year!!
nope, Oracle can and will sustain this inflated ORCL level for a very loooong time without any refill from the board.
we'll have ORCL floating around 50$ for at least the next 12-18 months, regardless of financial results. and any wise investor should really stay very away from ORCL, no real sustained mid/long-term growth, ORCL since the previous stock buyback (10B some 18 months ago) has become a risky stock only used for speculative operations. and to do that you must have direct and real informations, not something read on the internet, or you must be very lucky.
Down today, better pump some more cash into it Larry! A--hole!
more very bad news coming soon
If you know something, please clue the rest of us in.
I would suspect after TK leaving, that a lot of layoffs are coming up. We might have that BIG ONE, who knows.
@VqP8iAj-1shh : until runs out, then the board will approve another round.
given the cash, Oracle can go on like this for several quarters
ouch, the stock collapsed to 50$, more than -3% in just a couple of hours.... the 12B$ must be evaporated.....
what is the lifespan of the $12B for buy backs? Quarterly, annual or until it runs out?
more very bad news coming soon
It is $50.82.
it's really incredible that the stock is still at this (low) level, and I'm not joking. when you invest 12B$ (twelve billions !!!!) in buybacks, you could expect a very quick rise in the high doubledigit% territory, while ORCL is up just shy of 10% since the announcement.
nope, dude ORCL is goign to crash as soon as the 12B$ evaporate, unless the board will approve another round (most probable, they can go on like this for several quarters), and that's why almost all analysts have modified from keep to sell with negative outlook: http://www.businessinsider.fr/us/oracle-management-wall-street-analysts-2018-9
Sure, I bet they could prop the stock up to $60 with buybacks. Still going to crash though, just takes time to run out of money.
http://www.businessinsider.fr/us/oracle-management-wall-street-analysts-2018-9
"Oracle's revenue growth — just 1% year-over-year — looks especially slow when compared to its competitors. Walravens contrasted Oracle's sleepy results to 39% growth at Amazon, 4% growth at SAP, 22% growth at Microsoft and 27% growth at Salesforce in each of their most recent earnings reports, covering the same period."
".... we continue to believe that Oracle needs to focus less on winning and more on its customers' success to drive growth. Whether that can happen under this management team is another question."
"Indeed, others on Wall Street expressed skepticism that Oracle's management team can take the company to the next level."
"With these items (cloud revenues) no longer broken out separately, investors have to rely on management's comments, but credibility has suffered as of late,"
Next is a total crash and a $5 per share price ! Oracle is broken beyond repair.
Only if they offer a reverse split next year.
of couse, next step is even 600$, an oracle svp told me, requesting his name not to be mentioned ....
Stop coc--ne, it is bad for your health ...
Please talk to your doctor. you might need to up your Kool aid pr-scrip-ion.