The biggest tell in the whole thing was that there was never a firm denial that a breakup was being planned.
If it was true, VK could have easily said something like:
"We feel that there is real value in our current high-level structure and we plan to keep it. We will also continually adjust our business portfolio on a smaller scale to meet our business goals, as we have with the PPE business and our several recent acquisitions."
VK didn't say anything like that. Which means to me that a breakup is being seriously considered. GE did it, Siemens did it, 3M is in the middle of it, Dow and DuPont have fully shuffled their businesses. Honeywell being next seems like a real possibility.