Big trouble for Dell right now as the AI oasis is an actual mirage. Severe cost cutting is about to happen with massive layoffs about to hit.
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@mm NVIDIA' conman-in-chief gave great theatre.. But that's what NVIDIA results are - just theatre , no substance. We have been su-kered ladies and gentlemen!
YESTERDAY WILL GO DOWN IN HISTORY AS ONE OF THE MOST BRILLIANT THEATRICAL PERFORMANCES OF ALL TIME
It's Easy To Fool The Best Of Them When They Want to Be Fooled
And wow did we all want to be fooled
Record Q3 earnings: $57B revenue, 62% growth, crushing expectations.
Wall Street erupted. Stock jumped 5%. Analysts upgraded.
Then, same day, buried in the 10-Q:
"There is no assurance that we will enter into definitive agreements with respect to the OpenAI opportunity."
Translation: That $100 billion OpenAI deal announced 8 weeks ago with White House photo ops?
It might not happen.
IT MIGHT NOT HAPPEN
Brilliant staging. Announce the triumph while filing the retreat.
THE CIRCULAR PRODUCTION
The plot was elegant:
NVIDIA "invests" $100B → OpenAI "buys" GPUs → NVIDIA "books" revenue → Wall Street "celebrates" demand
NewStreet Research calculated it: Every $10B out returns as $35B back. That's 27% of last year's annual revenue.
Michael Burry's review yesterday, same day as your filing:
"The future will regard this as fraud, not a flywheel. True end demand is ridiculously small. Almost all customers are funded by their dealers."
AMD BREAKS THE FOURTH WALL
Here's where your production falls apart:
AMD brought signed contracts.
You brought theater programs.
NVIDIA: Press release ✗ Letter of intent ✗ No contracts ✗ No warrants ✗ SEC disclaimer: "might not happen" ✗
THE BALANCE SHEET REVIEWS
Accounts Receivable:
January: $10.0B
October: $17.7B
77% growth in money owed but not collected
Bad Debt Reserves:
2020: 0.12%
2025: 0.02%
Cut 83% while receivables exploded
Translation: Selling tickets on credit to customers who can't pay while cutting refund budgets.
This isn't your first production.
He's been sanctioned before by the SEC
Lucent, 2000: Lent $2B to WinStar. WinStar bought Lucent equipment. WinStar bankrupted. Lucent wrote off $700M. Show closed.
NVIDIA, 2002: SEC found you guilty of revenue manipulation. Split agreements to hide liabilities. SEC sanctioned you (File No. 3-11171).
So this is a revival.
Same show, bigger stage.
THE FINAL ACT
September 22: Grand announcement with White House backdrop for "unprecedented $100B partnership"
November 19 (YESTERDAY): SEC filing: "no assurance"
58 days from opening night to "show might be cancelled."
Customers pay you.
Actors perform for you.
NVIDIA has press releases and SEC disclaimers.
One is theatre
One is commerce.
Dell is failing with AI because they laid off everyone who knows how to sell it. That is a fact.
Nvidia: hold my beer
Really????
AI is just getting started indeed as someone said already. There will be culling in the process - only the fittest and actually inventive will survive. DELL is not one of them.
I noticed this term “memory drive” being used by the analysts. WTF is that?
AI is just getting started
OP has his finger on the pulse of the AI market with hard hitting insight..Just kidding...same fear monger posts from the same unhappy guy who is all over this board...So easy to see...its painful and most importantly of zero value to anyone at Dell, so thanks much
MD is playing McAfee(rip) style pump and dump. He might be prepping the business for split and sell off after the squeeze.
Stevie Wonder saw that coming.... MD dumped $1b in shares at $159 each, good timing on his part.
Morgan Stanley slashed its rating for Dell stock to Underweight from Overweight and lowered its price target to $110 from $144 in a research note Sunday. A surge in the price of memory drives—a component in Dell products like servers and PCs—will weigh on Dell’s margins, it said. Spot prices for NAND flash and dynamic random-access memory products have jumped by as much as 50% and 300%, respectively, in the past six months. Dell’s mix of products means it is among the hardware manufacturers most exposed to the higher prices, Morgan Stanley said.