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How to predict IRS Segment Rates?

I know no one can predict the IRS segment rates accurately, but I plugged in the three segment rates from November to May of this year from the IRS web site and used the EXCEL formula FORECAST.LINEAR to try to forecast what the segment rates would be in November when the cash balance would be recalculated for 2022.

May rates were just posted of 0.61, 2.84, 3.54

I got 0.82, 3.64 and 4.24 would be the future rate in November when I plugged into the Fidelity calculator using the FORECAST.LINEAR function, if these rates were close, I would have a lump sum reduction of $85k come 2022!

So my question is, what method should be used to project what the segments rates might be come November?

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| 3574 views | | 10 replies (last June 26, 2021) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+1buBc0A1

10 replies (most recent on top)

If you are planning to retire in 2021 and are going to take the Lump Sum, KNOW YOUR RETIREMENT PLAN!

  1. For some plans the “Benefit Commencement Date “ is the first day of the following month. So, for these plans, your “Termination (retirement) Date” has to be in November in order for your Lump Sum to be based on the current 2021 rates. If you retire any day in December your “Benefit Commencement Date” is January 1st and your Lump Sum will be based on the new 2022 rates set using the November 2021 IRS Segment and 30 Year Treasury rates.
  2. Others plans (Southeast for example) - “Benefit Commencement Date” is “Termination (Retirement) Date” plus “1”. So, you could retire on 12/30/21 and your “Benefit Commencement Date” would be 12/31/2021 and your Lump Sum would still be based on the 2021 rates.

But call HR or Fidelity or Both - Don’t use the site for advice!!!!

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Post ID: @3psy+1buBc0A1

Anybody who knows what interest rates will do would have no time for this silly board. The one trend you can believe is the segment rates don't change much month to month and the one fact is that a pension lump sum is paid on the November rate. So by August or so you should have a pretty good view on what you might do.

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Post ID: @3lul+1buBc0A1

Composite corporate bond rate. Check with Fidelity, not here. Too many bad guesses. ATT uses the rate published in November for the following year.

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Post ID: @1xxz+1buBc0A1

" Call your psychic. He can predict the rates better than anyone else here."

A monkey can see that interest rates are trending up.

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Post ID: @1ark+1buBc0A1

The lump sum will be less next year because it’s tied to interest rates. The Nov 2020 rates were an all time low because during the pandemic interest rates were nearly zero. Rates are still low but much higher than last year. Unless something bad happens before Nov expect your pension lump sum to be lower if taken after Jan1. This means if you are considering retiring do it before 11/30 so your pension start date is 12/1, not 1/1.

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Post ID: @1lfe+1buBc0A1

Call your psychic. He can predict the rates better than anyone else here.

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Post ID: @1kbo+1buBc0A1

"November 2021 is the LAST month that lump sum will use the 2020 rates, per Fidelity."

Actually, the November 2020 segment rates are used for lump sum distributions taken from 1/1/21 to 12/31/21.

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Post ID: @qta+1buBc0A1

I believe the segment rates are closely tied to the corporate bond yield . Not sure how accurate the Linearfunction tool is but you’ll have a better idea of what November segment rates will be In August or September as they don’t tend to fluctuate a great deal. That being said I just took a 40K hit using May segment rates compared to last November.

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Post ID: @vtt+1buBc0A1

November 2021 is the LAST month that lump sum will use the 2020 rates, per Fidelity. I expect worse rates in 2022 based on what the Fed is saying. I am taking my lump sum in Nov 2021.

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Post ID: @hdc+1buBc0A1

I think its safe to say the rates for 2022 (November 2021) will be higher than 2021 and expect a drop in any lump sum amount. You can plug in the May rates into the Fidelity model to get an idea, but expect a drop none the less.

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Post ID: @ulm+1buBc0A1

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