Was it what you were expecting?
11 replies (most recent on top)
Without the Nat Gen purchase, Big Blue doesn't look too good.
Give me my severance and I'll gladly go away. As for falling in line... 🖕
Stock price is all that matters. That is TW and GS job. When will U grunts ever get it. Almost one year after layoff announcement, Company is rocking and the noise u people make is just white noise.
Fall in line or go away.
The Street loves the report and conference call, driving stock to $131.66 earlier in day. With net growth of 15,000 Allstate brand auto in the quarter, compare that to over 700,000 at Progressive and 125,000 at Geico for a sense of competitiveness. Investors focused on returns, share buybacks, and big dividend increase previously announced. Any growth would be a plus, but in near-term, stock will fly and TW/GS look like studs not duds.
Yeah, it tells me that "Layoffs 2021" is right around the corner. And don't say "but we are already too short staffed". Listen carefully...TOM AND GLENN DON'T CARE!!! They will do whatever to eek out a few more years of 7 figure bonus before things finally sink or they bow out. This company is beyond repair. Glenn has suceeded at making Allstate "Liberty Mutual 2.0". I do not believe for a second that any moves they make going forward will be for the company, employees, customers, or even shareholders. They are out 100% for their own pockets the next few years and if more layoffs in already short staffed areas is what it takes for a few more years of padding their bank accounts then they will do it. They will still have their money regardless with what happens to the company and us.
Same cheating agents fake growth. Churn and butter gets rewarded
Nothing in the earning that I didn’t expect. Retention is down because of the pandemic with Allstate being to conservative on price decreases while others were more aggressive, poking agents with terminations/reduced commissions/bad sales environment, and layoffs that affect both service levels (claims, RMBC, billing, ect) to customers/agents. The more direct business that comes in at new business versus the core customers coming through agents (EA/IA) the more this will drop because of the clientele profiles (I.e. direct business doesn’t stick like agent business). Allstate will grow auto with a new product being released in 2021-2022 rollout. If retention continues to erode with new product launch Allstate will lose profits on rich renewals causing rates to come back up on auto worsening the problem. Allstate homeowners is the cash cow but rates continue to become less competitive with a narrowing range of core customers/risk which could lead to stagnant growth and loss of ROE to prop up auto while being repaired from Tom’s own hand. A lot of margin for error in the days ahead with the entire TG strategy hinging on a well designed and priced auto product with a management team that has been shown lacking. Only way this works is that if ROE drops to the lower end range (12%), Allstate invest in itself at a greater rate (tech/employee/agents) while slowly reducing expenses over time, and new products that are more sophisticated in pricing are delivered by management. Pricing sophistication and technology are the key here expenses being #3. The lacking management likes to talk expenses as they can easy control that but lack the skill to reimagine products and technology.
Who is responsible for growth of Allstate brand sales and why are they still part of the company?
My thoughts? This company is in BIG trouble. They are currently literally paying thousands of dollars per new policy. Regardless of how they try to spin this Transformative Growth has been an epic disaster.
Assume ALL spent a small slice of their BILLION $ marketing budget on Allstate brand auto last quarter. Lets guess $150 million. That cost them $10,000 per net acquired policy before they paid any other expenses like claims and commissions. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to determine that is not sustainable before Glen is finally shown the door to stop the bleeding on his ill-fated Transformational Shrinkage plan. Tommy is a fan of dumping money into lost causes, but that’s just crazy!
Allstate Brand Auto up 15,000 policies in a quarter on base of 21.8 million, or flat. Bad. Homeowner PIF flat to prior quarter. Call it what it is---no growth and ALL Brand Auto is smaller than same quarter in 2020. Significant accounting wizardry (pandemic profits, share buybacks) and distorted comparisons with Nat General purchase. Nice to write 5% more applications, but 86.7% auto retention is down .7pp from 1Q2020 and lowest level of past 5 quarters. Squaretrade is impressive but low average premiums and profits. Read the investor supplement to distinguish facts from the storytelling you'll hear on calls. I'm sure the spin will be we are now at an inflection point. $1 billion in advertising to tread water while major competitors grow and take share.