how long do you think this company can last until it falls apart
21 replies (most recent on top)
Like many, devolving into a licensed "famous name" slapped on junk made by others.
I'm just a gigolo and everywhere I go
People know the part I'm playing
Honeywell has had only 18 months left to go for at least the last 20 years. I know, because I used to be one of the ones who regularly made that prediction. After being wrong for 4-5 years I assumed that it had more inertia left than I had worry left and refocused my energies and devised a plan to make the most of a horrific situation and having made that decision, I have retired very comfortably.
I had developed experience and expertise in a very narrow field of manufacturing within the Strategic Guidance community and would have had only 2 places in the Free World where I could have plied my trade. Golden Handcuffs, for sure. Had I jumped ship mid-career "knowing" that the SS Honeywell was going down, things would not have turned out nearly as well for me. Do I wish I'd signed on to a different company in the beginning? He!! YES. Would it have been better to bail prematurely? Most certainly not.
Your Mileage May Vary
What’s today?
Honeywell name should be around a long time; company is changing rapidly. I say Hon continues to sell off parts. As manufacturing companies get bigger and older rapid growth phase of the early days is gone, margins become lower because markets become saturated, the original leaders who liked the products they made retire, and the new guys that get into leadership positions are more financial types. I think leaders at most older large companies have this vision of being a holding company - don't make anything, few employess just make deals, mergers, and s— cash out. I think Hon leaders have this mentality. Like DA has said - we are a software and techniology company, whatever that means. Berkshire Hathaway used to be a textile company; everyone wants to be like Warren.
It will out-live everyone answering this question.
A moot point for the North American or west European worker, as they are being phased out of the picture.
Agree with @2vlt, HON will go on, but as a shadow of it's former self. HON is not the company many of us veterans started at years ago. Aero specifically. No longer a reputable and respected engineering organization. It's run by bean counters and sycophants now. Sadly.
Honeywell will survive. The executives and the board have too much riding on it.
I would ask the question: What company would be remotely interested in buying Honeywell Aerospace?
1 day longer than it should
too long
How long before Titanic sinks? Look around you. How many people are left to do the work? Another year of lost revenue due to covid. Let's say flights return in 2022. Continue with reorg and cheap labor replacements -folks not even technically qualified or have the right leadership skills. But they keep getting promoted. Sell AERO core business in the 1-2-years. It falls apart in 3- 5 years.
Like most airplanes, honeywell will be viable much longer than you expect.
While honeywell is certainly an example of the "ge model" ... the forces that toppled GE are not all present against honeywell.. specifically the effect of the great recession on GE Capital... the final nail so to speak.
https://hbr.org/2018/07/who-k–led-the-ge-model
In avoiding this scenario honeywell IS trying to pair back to core strengths. Question is... can you tell from the factory floor where those strengths are? I don't think you can without seeing the balance sheet.
The footprint target for honeywell aero is 80 sites down from 160 .
With biden in office honeywell can be full bore "go east" again.
This time with no pretense of any help needed from arizona or california.
The answer is found in another question: how long did GE last after Jeff Immelt took control of the company? It was about 10 years, and sure, the Jack Welch "Growth Through Acquisition" (GTA) strategy died in 1999, but by GE owning NBC/CNBC, they 'colored' their corporate news as long as possible. It was the only good idea Welch ever had, buying an 'organ' to push their supposed success. AlliedSignal/Honeywell copied everything GE did from the Bossidy days until after the fall of GE. In some ways they still follow all the bad ideas of peer corporate sub-human resources. Honeywell has lost almost every dominant niche they ever created, bought, or copied, and they won't be coming back, since shrinking R&D budgets and bad management don't combine to equal success. Circling back to the original question, I'd say that within 3 years Honeywell will be broken up and sold off piecemeal to different companies around the world.
It will be around long after we are all gone. Companies such as Honeywell does not disappear overnight; 2 years is "overnight" comp to 100 yeard of existence.
Investors love Hon. It will pasts just as other major companies will
It will survive until Buying American companies and moving all labor to lower cost countries is no longer viable
Exactly....couldn't agree more and the reason why so many sites are being closed. Getting ready to package the business and sell it off. The 2 to 2.5 yr timeframe will bring big decision when someone realizes that they can not keep up with demand and why the new sites receiving all the transitioned work can not perform. Remember this folks....50% reduction in aerospace.....that means less than 30 sites and many are being bundled under hubs. The writting is on the wall and HW never wants to discuss it and why so many are under NDA. Buckle up folks!
Companies do not die.
They strip down and then sell off IP, buy new companies, but never die. Engines has 30 years of spare parts sales. APUs will continue a long time. But either could be sold off.
For as long as they can still derive sustinance by eating their own.
They can last as long as they can throw domestic employees under the bus. That could be a good while.
I'd predict 2 to 2.5yrs. Darius and leaders like Madsen are going to survive during these unprecedented times until the market comes back. Cutting costs without any real concern for the future will come back to ultimately bite them and that time will come when demand comes back. Heck, Madsen was doing a sh–ty job before the pandemic and proved he couldn't deal with the past due situation, but somehow that was spun as we are getting the new demand out and demand was strong. They always find a way to spin their own story of health even when things are not going well (they even get promoted). It usually aligns to their own pockets and bonuses. When you piss off all your customers and employees, the middle men will pay the price eventually and the spin doctors will be off to con someone else.