Why was I selected for the VSP: because you have not received anything better than a SL3 for the past 4 years and have been in you job grade for longer than average.
Will I get laid off if I don't take it: depends on what job you are doing. The next phase of the layoff will target certain areas and HR is using a performance algorithm that will put VSP people at the bottom of the list so VSP will get laid off in the next round in those jobs
What jobs are getting targeted next round: canceled projects the ones you all have read about in the media, small teams at minor Intel sites for a larger group, so if your not at a Intel site over 1000 people its you. Then there is areas Intel executives have target for efficiency, like program managers, product planners, architects, design automation.. if you have job code that sounds like anyone of those you are likely on list that will get vetted through the HR performance tool.
What is this HR performance tool and how does it relate to VSP: its algorithm developed by Intel lawyers to make sure the selected employees have no case of worker discrimination for a class action lawsuit. By using an algorithm it can say the selection was objective. The criteria is irrelevant to the law as long as its not targeting a protected class. For instance Intel can target people with names that start with letters N-Z, just as easily as "low performers" as long as the algorithm picks the people.
What happen if I don't take the VSP and get laid off in the next wave: it will be no different than if you took the VSP. So far the ISP, Site closure and VSP packages have been the same. And its likely till they end ACT they will stay that way. Intel management is ruthless but they are not spiteful. Why offer ISP or VSP a better package then a better performer that just happens to be on the wrong project or wrong site or in a job with too many people
With a VSP if I make it through this next wave am I safe: depends on what your boss tells you. The notes from MCM this past week are real. If you have had the same boss for the past few years and never gotten anything better than a SL3 you are likely on his/her sh-- list and one focal cycle away from a SL4 and ISP. And the tone of the letters are clearly showing an intent in future focals to bucket a lower 15% of the population into the you will get fired list.