We are going to blow past earnings and guide higher for the next quarter. It's up up and away from here for OT
16 replies (most recent on top)
@aj used car sales methodology, shady. shocking customers have renewed this long considering the exponential cost growth. maintenance carry over ki-ls new deals / 'upgrades'. stone age business model, no loyalty
@jt it’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.
@jt I heard that in Buzz Lightyear's voice. Made me laugh. Thanks.
To bankruptcy court and liquidation!
To the sewer 💩
To the moon 🚀
Today’s beat on earnings was driven by cost-cutting and low expectations, not by broad-based organic growth across the entire business.
Even if that prediction is correct:
1) One Quarter does not a successful year make
2) OT is well known for it's creative financial reporting (and always has a 'transaction in flight' so they can report "exceptional expenses") which they throw everything into including the kitchen sink.
They will also talk (at nauseum) about AI🙄
I haven’t seen anyone leak and good news so thinking nothing new will come out of the earnings call. The only thing that would make investors happy that we could do is more layoffs. Other than that, I expect the stock to stay under $25 for a while.
@ce AI slop, did Aviator write it?
We are in a difficult, possibly "desperate," transition period.
- The "Fire Sale" Signal (Vertica Divestiture)
• Selling Vertica for $150 million is arguably a weak exit for a major analytics asset.
• Vertica generated ~$80 million in annual revenue. Selling a high-tech "AI-ready" database business for less than 2x revenue is a very low multiple in the software industry.
• This suggests OpenText was desperate to offload the asset to raise cash quickly. The proceeds are going entirely to debt reduction, confirming that the company's debt load (approx. $6.4B) is a major constraint. - "Kitchen Sinking" by an Interim CEO
• Interim CEO James McGourlay is making massive structural changes before the permanent CEO (Ayman Antoun) even arrives in April.
• Savinay Berry, who was just promoted to the role in August 2025, is out. A CTO exit less than 6 months into a tenure is a major red flag for technology strategy stability.
• Consolidating Engineering and "Business Networks" under new leaders (Shannon Bell/Muhi Majzoub) right now means the incoming CEO will inherit a brand-new, untested structure he didn't design.
• This looks like "clearing the decks" or "kitchen sinking"—getting all the bad news and painful changes out of the way so the new CEO can start with a clean slate. This often implies the next few quarters will be messy as the changes take effect. - Leadership Gap & Stock Drop
• The market hated the new CEO announcement.
• OTEX stock dropped 5.8% immediately after Ayman Antoun (ex-IBM) was announced as the next CEO.
• Investors are skeptical because Antoun is an "operator" (IBM background) rather than a "deal-maker." This signals a shift away from OpenText's traditional growth-by-acquisition strategy toward "operational efficiency". In the short term, "efficiency" usually means slower growth and cost-cutting.
• Antoun doesn't start until April 20, 2026. That leaves the company in a "lame duck" period for another 2.5 months while the Interim CEO forces through the RTO and reorg. - Employee Churn Risk (The RTO Mandate)
• A strict Return-to-Office (RTO) plan: 4 days/week starting March 2, moving to 5 days/week by September 2.
• A sudden shift to 5 days in office is aggressive compared to many tech competitors. This typically acts as a "soft layoff," causing talented engineers (who have options) to leave voluntarily.
• Combined with the "modernization" language (often code for cuts) and the CTO leaving, internal morale is likely fragile. This creates execution risk for the "Cloud Acceleration" program they are trying to launch.
The company is selling assets cheap to pay debt, changing leaders rapidly, and forcing employees back to the office while its stock sits near 52-week lows. The "Cloud Acceleration" narrative feels like a defensive pivot rather than an offensive growth story.
Pump and dump thread clearly.
Fairly sure they've missed targets with share price slumping again today.
The layoffs will continue until morale improves
The entire MJB tenure was based on misdirection by acquiring new revenue stream at low multiples to muddy the revenue growth water for the next 4 Qtrs. Whatever the current version is, it's the opposite to the same effect: sell revenue (for even lower multiples) and muddy the water for the next 4 Qtrs.
@aj Which is weird because in my experience Renewals are not accurate for some of the 'core' products.
But we're too scared to correct that via audits despite kinda needing that money. Aside from giving customers a nasty surprise.
'Sorry it took like 8 years for someone outside Renewals to explain your RC - you're actually not entitled to XYZ and have not been for years. Wanna fix that?' :)
Look normally I'm all for optimism but I'm sorry - shit's fcked. And if customers are not happy despite potentially not always paying what they should, OT can't really fix that. One day the discounts from Sales or Renewals' management has to end. Even if we can't be bothered to audit if needed.
Opentext can't really stop the PS/cloud people when we catch them putting internal keys on customer accounts either. All we can really do is tell them someone f*cked up and now the customer has to buy any differences they want. That's not a great practice either, OT.
Making clients pay exorbitant increases in renewal fees eventually has a very detrimental impact on future revenue streams.
We are losing more clients than we are onboarding.
Earnings may look good short term or just not as bad as they could be.