Thread regarding SAS Institute layoffs

@kg Doesn’t matter. Be consistent when you can. If life gets in the way do what you must but get back to consistency at first opportunity.

I went through
Dot com bust
Lost decade
Financial Crisis (2008)
COVID supply chain

Those tend to be opportunities although they seem so at the time.

Let’s not forget “The Lost Decade”.

There seems to be a belief that folks will be employed consistently for 30 years here. That’s not universal.

Organizational changes will disrupt your apple cart. Plan on your cheese being moved. In some cases, you may have to start over, all the way at the bottom.

"30 years of maxing Roth 401k plus matches and you’ll have ~4 million give or take."

That math worked for older folks at SAS. For younger folks, AI has changed everything.

"Learn to live on less" is sound advice.

@js+1kfrd18mj

Okay, boomer. JFC.

@gg
You make great points on maxing out 401k. A few additional points:

Learn to live on less. For example:

1. Make your own coffee instead of visiting Starbucks.
2. Replace pedicures with clipping your toe nails.
3. Cease door dashing. Learn how to cook, you might like it. And be healthier if you lean in that direction.
4. Be less entitled. Mommy and daddy are not supposed to be your personal assistants.
5. Consolidate trips to town. Seldom is it necessary to take your car out for just ONE reason.
6. Replace the swanky with the practical. A basic car for example. No need for always having the latest iPhone. Walmart clothing instead of image clothing. Fewer spa visits replaced by inexpensive or free outdoor exercise. Get exercise cleaning your home and mowing your grass instead of paying to have it done. Cease adjusting your standard of living upward whenever you receive a money bump.
7. Challenge yourself to find more than what is on this list. It is out there and all that is required is a change in YOUR mindset.

Back to the @OP's questions...

Companies are already adopting AI. So I can well believe that AI will significantly impact SAS revenues within three to five years.

Over the last decade, SAS has declined by ~2-3% annually (measured by inflation-adjusted revenues, or by headcount).

This has been mostly due to the rise of Open Source and other competitors in the Cloud. We have not yet seen the impact of AI.

Suppose AI's impact is comparable. Then the ~2-3% decline would double to ~5% annually.

SAS has been reducing headcount by 2-3% each year. They can do that without hurting the company: goodness knows there's plenty of fat.

But cutting 5% each year? That's a dire scenario.

And yet, AI is changing the business model. Could it have that effect?

@gg Sounds like an advert for that FIRE rubbish - live on pet food NOW for a glorious retirement (of living on pet food) - and not much to do with SAS

@ga Every one of you makes far more than most people on the planet. Certainly the folks on the R&D side of things. Could you make more elsewhere? Maybe. Maybe not. If you don’t want to or can’t get hired elsewhere then the answer is no. Moot point.

You can be far more than comfortable at SAS whether you be rank and file or management.

Max out 401k/Roth 401k from an early age and you are going to be in the top 4%…. For some people life truly won’t let them do that. But for most they either don’t comprehend the value of time and compounding or they keep saying I’ll start next year.

30 years of maxing Roth 401k plus matches and you’ll have ~4 million give or take.
Now make sure you are saving/investment outside of your 401k and follow the same principals of time and consistency….

That is not factoring in a working spouse which many of you have.

That is the kind of retirement money 97% of people on the planet only dream of. And all this while living a modest but very good life while getting there.

I’m sure folks will p-o p-o this but it is simple math unless you are one of the few that life truly does keep beaten down.

Hate on this message all you want but young people take note and don’t misuse your biggest asset which is time.

@f2 The higher-ups are not highly paid, and they have no stock options.

They can get a slightly better retirement than the rank and file. But SAS is not Silicon Valley. It's a place to make enough to get comfortable, not enough to get rich.

The directors and VPs are laughing their way to the bank. They have for the past 20+ years. It's good to be kings and queens.

Viya has been a decade long distraction for SAS. Additionally it was a super expensive in investment. Open source is increasingly proving, that Viya was the wrong dog barking loudly up the wrong tree.

Concerning 3-5 years as the OP speculates, IMO the lifespan of SAS is tied to the lifespan of the captain. Remember what Big Jim said a long time ago when asked what he would do after SAS. Paraphrasing his answer: when I am done with SAS, dirt will be thrown over me. To me, that means his intention is to remain in control of SAS until his final breath. Although that was quite awhile ago, I believe that is still the plan. Many actions also suggest such.

Best wishes to Big Jim, while I have not always agreed with his decisions, I still like the man.

Here’s a fun exercise:

Google “Reddit are sas skills important”.
The threads are enlightening and hint at the trajectory of the company.

There are at least four factors affecting SAS's and Viya's revenue streams:

1) Against Open Source, proprietary languages are a hard sell. SAS and CAS cost money, R and Python are free, and customers can take their choice.

2) In Google v. Oracle and SAS Institute Inc. v. World Programming Ltd. the courts ruled that companies can't copyright syntax. So when an AI generates SAS or CAS code, SAS doesn't get any money.

3) Customers still need licenses to run proprietary code. But if they have an AI writing code, they need fewer coders, hence fewer licenses. They still need experienced analysts to supervise the AIs. But those analysts won't write much code.

4) Customers can now give an AI a data set, and command it, "Analyze this!" The results are imperfect, of course. But these products are only getting better, and they require no proprietary language.

Three to five years is a good guess.