Thread regarding ExxonMobil Corp. layoffs

Vaccine rally not enough for Exxon to organically fund dividend, analyst says - Stay Tuned for Additional CAPEX and OPEX

Nov. 28, 2020 9:45 PM ET
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor52 Comments

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is still not bringing in enough cash to fully fund its dividend payout despite the recent coronavirus vaccine-fueled rise in oil prices, Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov says in maintaining his Underperform rating on the stock.

Exxon instead faces an "unenviable choice" of either taking on more leverage or selling assets to support the dividend, according to Molchanov, adding that divesting assets at potentially sub-optimal valuations and using the proceeds to fund the dividend is the most probable near-term solution but not sustainable.

The company could need $8B of debt financing to maintain its 2021 dividend, MKM Partners calculated earlier this month.

Earlier: Exxon faces big decisions on dividend tradeoffs (Oct. 30)

Despite gaining 22% in November, XOM shares are still down 41% over the past year:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3639782-vaccine-rally-not-enough-for-exxon-to-organically-fund-dividend-analyst-says?mail_subject=xom-vaccine-rally-not-enough-for-exxon-to-organically-fund-dividend-analyst-says&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

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| 1864 views | | 2 replies (last November 29, 2020) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+18afMGMw

2 replies (most recent on top)

@guk+18afMGMw

Are you kidding or do you really not understand anything about financing and markets?

The stock price determines the market cap of the company, aka value of the company, which among other things sets the price (interest rate and terms) at which debt can be acquired. So it is important. One might argue that today's price is not as relevant as the one year outlook, but either way, earnings, cash flow, etc. all go into calculating the value of the company, which is reflected in the stock price and outlook.

What is fairly irrelevant is the dividend yield of a stock that has recently had a significant increase or decrease in stock price. Trust me, no one with a cost basis of $70/share in XOM is thrilled at a yield of 8-10% just because the price tanked. It means nothing except to new investors.

And whether you and countless others can comprehend that real people depend on the dividend, as an example, just what do you think people rely on for living expenses when retired? For most, it is social security plus whatever returns they can get on investments. Whether directly owning XOM stock or having it as part of a mutual fund or ETF, the dividend does matter, especially when the underlying value of the stock is down 50% or more.

It is just mindless for employees to believe that they somehow own the dividend of all the shareholders. Why not seize and start selling office furnishings and oil field equipment, do employees own that as well? Do shareholders owe employees a percentage of their shares, maybe 10% of what all shareholders hold as stock should be given to employees? What's the difference, take shares or dividends, it is all value?

The dividends do not belong to you. You can whine all you want. Sadly, many of you expect handouts and freebies to be delivered to you now just as it was while you were growing up. There are no more participation trophies. You are paid an enormous salary with outstanding benefits. Work to earn what you already receive and quit trying to take from others. It is called capitalism, something you probably never learned much about at school.

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Post ID: @2fft+18afMGMw

Stock price has nothing to do with our ability to generate cash, which is really what the dividend is about. It makes the yield look a little more reasonable.

What I find more funny is that dividend yields only reach 8%+ when it’s clear shareholders don’t believe you’re able to sustain. These shareholders who lack belief in the company are the same shareholders that our management believe “depend on our dividend”.

For those of you who are conservatives - doesn’t this just look like a handout to you? Giving out money when you clearly don’t have it?

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Post ID: @guk+18afMGMw

Buy assets high sell assets low. #winning

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Post ID: @cwb+18afMGMw

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