1) shed deadweight
2) produce more runway to stave off bankruptcy
3) generate lift
We’re kinda at 2/2.5. The lift generation isn’t obvious yet.
29 replies (most recent on top)
@nb Anger Funding is actually Beggar Funding
@k2 No headcount target is final, as measured year to year.
All targets are based on expected revenue, which has been soft for long enough at this point that everyone should expect lowered targets until something materially changes. Also expect the lowered targets to be highly focused on Foundry.
That is why these tie-ups with the megacap tech companies are meaningful to those who are more focused on their paycheck than a stock trade. The stock valuation is growing in anticipation of these deals leading to at least increased product sales, then external wafer sales over time.
It seems very likely that by the time the company is able to start securing some of the megacap tech companies as a second source for TSMC (soon to be CCP-SMC), that the product sales and IFS cost will have improved enough to make the company profitable and the stock to be at least in the $40s. At that point any IFS external customer wins will largely flow to earnings.
So for headcount targets, I'd expect ProdCo HC to follow what is happening with products. IFS is just starting to work on cost efficiency, having never seriously considered cost in the old IDM strategy. That means that Foundry targets have further to compress, possibly even if/when external customers happen. The targets for the product side and support groups likely remain relatively flat, at least until revenues gain traction.
The company has not gotten anything from AI, however that will improve over time. Add to this the extreme amount of delay which the datacenter AI build-out has caused on CPU refresh cycle. At the same time Intel is catching up to AMD on design, so when that refresh happens the company could see a big improvement in datacenter.
A person can focus on the past or the future. It's a choice.
That rocketship stock price is just the last big wet fa-t on the toilet before the flush.
I'll give LBT credit, as he's swallowed his pride. He's now resorting to friends and foes for angel funding, begging for any kind of handout with the backing of Trump.
No improvements in merit and technical? How far can you go to generate lift by begging money?
@kq fake news
I don't believe OP can see clearly now the rain is gone.
Haha. We are so fu---d. Nobody’s going to upgrade their new gaming PC with a GovChip & data centers are going to avoid buying GovChips for security reasons.
@jq LP is the best. Political. Incompetent.
Non-technical. Backstabbing. Corrupt. Ever.
That is why she will survive and thrive as Intel Blue.
@k2 75k target for 2025. 2026 target will be 55-60k. Targets already being finalized for 2026.
Intel Who? Nobody wants GovChips.
@dw so what is the final target if 75K is not final ?
is LBT going to continue IDM 2.0 ?
Corrosive culture still exists in important parts of the company. Long-timers are folks who have persevered, and many because they are skilled at politics, manipulation, dishonesty, or yelling down others.
There are many good people at the company, though, and it will take some time and skill to properly purge. A good cleansing is necessary, esp. in LP's space - including her.
@OP Lift is happening in packaging, and that seems about to draw in Apple, to join Nvidia and Tesla as package customers, now that glass substrates are seen as a viable step forward where performance is paramount.
LBT talked about selling packaging to a package foundry, but likely now sees how it can be used to attract the same megacap tech companies that IFS has been trying to get for some time now.
This is an opportunity for IFS to get better aligned with customer needs, and if the fabs can in the future offer industry standard leading edge devices, then the learnings from packaging should help onboard those same companies (at least as a second source to TSMC).
The gov'ts efforts to realign manufacturing incentives helps, but Intel has to get better aligned to external customers as well. Took a long, long time to even start planning to build an industry standard PDK, but with 18A-P the company will have made that transition. Also helps that most of the IFS upper management have been 'retired', because they were the issue.
Everything is not awesome but it might be in the future.
@j5 Actually, LBT is still on Step #1, and about to steal TSMCs pa-ties.
@fs oof that really hurts well landed
Maybe 3D Crosspoint will come back.
The last 4 turnarounds ended up going in a circle, but this time might just do it.
#1 is not done, still plenty of deadweight left.
So you're telling me there might be a chance?
Employees are donating $10 Billions next week stock at $41
@bc if Intel landed a customer for foundry they would be telling the whole world. It wouldn't be a closely guarded secret. Getting people to commit will draw more interest and potentially more customers. This isn't happening.
Rework it and Rebrand it ! x86ers fall down and go bo-m at next CCP Bejing rice party ! Let the go-k times roll ZenZing !
@am
Nobody has "publicly" agreed to be a foundry customer yet.
Emphasis on "publicly"
The way INTC is going, with just a small good news, can go up to $300 before Trump finishing his term. MARA, Make America Rich Again.
All companies is trying to make Trump happy, so they can pay less tariff. What not.
Apple will chip in 5 billion, and Amazon should be in line. INTC shoots up another 50%.