What is your guess of the stock price at the close on 4/30/26?
My guess: $1.06
I know that is crazy on a percentage basis, but we're at the end now.
11 replies (most recent on top)
@jg
2.28 Today! We are on the right trajectory, our jobs are safe....
1.95 😊
Not kissing any pig. I will leave that for you geniuses.
Why don’t you all meet at Starbucks and discuss the dividend and past leaders of the company?
Then watch Kramer tell you it’s a good buy.
I think you heard that wrong, as he said “it’s good bye”
About the only thing I agree with …
@bn Hi, OP here.
I agree, if it turns out to be a generally bad earnings, what you are saying is spot on.
But, I don't think that is the case. I think current events point to a disaster call, much worse than usual. Here's why:
- The exit of SB. They fired him on the very last day of Q1, so we know it's bad, and they need a scapegoat; that is clear, and he did have it coming. What isn't clear is how/why the board didn't save him. They were all chummy, and quite close. Also, this train wreck isn't new, they have been down with his clowning for years, so they really can't act surprised at the current state of affairs.
Why now? What has changed?
For one thing, the board has a lot more information that you or I do. They know the true extent of how dire these straits really are, and they fired their boy to save themselves. Board members have a fiduciary duty to the shareholders, and can be sued personally for breach of that trust. Would they fire SB over bad numbers? Maybe, but probably not. Would they fire him over catastrophic numbers/news? Yeah, if it's that bad, yes they would to avoid lawsuits.
What would be the biggest trigger for shareholder lawsuits against board members? CH7, CH11.
No real layoffs. To have a chance at survival, XRX probably needs to lay of, maybe 10,000 people. They had people apply for VRIF and fired a very small number of people, but nothing to really move the needle so far. These people live high on the hog, and filing CH11 is the very last option for them. But,....maybe we're closer to that than people think.
That weird IP deal. That IP Joint Venture raised $400mm and is effectively a CH7 blocker, and the money hit their books for this earnings call. We will see how much of that money is left and what the margins look like after the 2% that they pay the IPJV Co. I'm guessing it's bad. They weren't doing great, and now they are skimming 2% off the top to keep the juice loan going. Remember, that is 2% of revenue, not profit. Also there are a bunch of terms in that deal that would trigger a default; if they don't hit their targets, that JV could sink the entire company.
It will be a wild call.
@ah There is a 3:1 ratio of puts to calls for May and a similar ratio for June. Any drop in the stock price below $1.50 will trigger puts to be "in the money". Put holders will also have exercised call options which will provide them with a hedge and additional profit in the case of a short squeeze, which we have just seen in the last couple of weeks. Without options trading, your mark of $1.17 may be correct.
Whatever level the anemic earnings hit, they will be lifted by significant activity to fill puts. The May put to call ratio is around 3:1, so put holders will be happy to fill their options from people trying to exit Xerox. I expect a drop to around $ 1.25, with call options lifting XRX back to the $1.40 level, still leaving $1.50 puts and above in the money. Without options trading, the OP may be correct and is probably reflecting the current bearish reality of the stock. Full disclosure - I work in business development for a current XRX reseller, so any bankruptcy or supply chain issues will have consequences to our heavy XRX portfolio.
@ab - Lipstick on a pig is still lipstick. If you want your lipstick back, you got to kiss the pig. Still, an unpleasant task!
@ah
With all this transparency, I am guessing we are all correct.
@OP
1.35
I will say I don’t think we’ll close below $1.17 the day of earnings or the day after. I think it will take a few days afterwards. We tend to be moving with general market sentiment right now vs. company specific news. I know the earnings will not be good but I suspect they will just be general decline news with additional layoffs announced (which markets usually like) so unless there is something the market isn’t projecting right now I’m not sure what precise news will drive us below $1.20.
Once you yell Bingo and you think you finally won, the new owner will call it a cover all.
And some schmoe wins after being there for a day and a half.
Lipstick on a pig’s still a pig. 🐷