Thread regarding Nike Inc. layoffs

You still have the same problem OP. A group of people, at least one of whom if not several will probably tell family & friends, will know this information before others. Which means the people who get in earliest will “know something”. But even if betting opened for everyone at the same time, a certain unknown amount of the pool will be skewing the bets. And that info will quickly leak like the roof on my old Volkswagen convertible, further skewing the betting pool in a manner you wouldn’t see with a true and more random “free market” pool.

I appreciate the ambition. But I don’t believe you’ve completely thought this thru. I wouldn’t bet without a good AI first analyzing the betting trends, to see if it can help me determine if those trends show who the “I already know” crowd is. And of course how they’re betting. Which funny enough is another reason it’s a bad bet: a little bit of math and stochastic analysis can make you part of the “I already know” crowd too! Lolz

OP here. I was going to make it simple. Bonus or no bonus. Getting down to the rates would be too complicated.

Agreed you can make more. When it posts on PM. I will send the link for folks to join and bet on.

What @aw+1ktw6tpjv said. Except you forgot to mention polymarket is an OVERSEAS platform where only ONE person in the US has ever been charged for betting on insider knowledge. Be honest, with those odds of getting away with it who wouldn’t make that bet if they had the info??

Cool. Might make more money betting on PSP than you’ll actually get from PSP!

Seriously though, I wouldn’t participate. Because a limited number of people - I’d guess anywhere between 5 and 40 - will know the correct number before it’s published. Which is a near-guaranteed recipe for manipulation that leaves everyone else holding the bag. And don’t think for a second “Only very senior people would know and they wouldn’t dare leverage that insider knowledge on a betting platform.”

You might be surprised. Or not.

PolyMarket is great for truly random events where people can guess but not know for certain the outcome. For things like this however, PolyMarket is instead a fantastic way to separate rubes from their money.