what is happening with the AI factories folks? Is the AI bubble unravelling or it is only Dell which is suffering? Thankfully I am away from the AI bubble which soon I expect to turn into doom and gloom. Time to park all your AI investments (incl. NVIDIA) into money market. Sell everything!
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how so????
@hy If you're getting them, you are part of the problem
if you RSU's, it is your money.
So what, who cares. It's not your money.
ummmm, told ya.
@a4 read this: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/stephenbklein_yesterday-will-go-down-in-history-as-one-activity-7397276103335301120-qULg
YESTERDAY WILL GO DOWN IN HISTORY AS ONE OF THE MOST BRILLIANT THEATRICAL PERFORMANCES OF ALL TIME
It's Easy To Fool The Best Of Them When They Want to Be Fooled
And wow did we all want to be fooled
Record Q3 earnings: $57B revenue, 62% growth, crushing expectations.
Wall Street erupted. Stock jumped 5%. Analysts upgraded.
Then, same day, buried in the 10-Q:
"There is no assurance that we will enter into definitive agreements with respect to the OpenAI opportunity."
Translation: That $100 billion OpenAI deal announced 8 weeks ago with White House photo ops?
It might not happen.
IT MIGHT NOT HAPPEN
Brilliant staging. Announce the triumph while filing the retreat.
THE CIRCULAR PRODUCTION
The plot was elegant:
NVIDIA "invests" $100B → OpenAI "buys" GPUs → NVIDIA "books" revenue → Wall Street "celebrates" demand
NewStreet Research calculated it: Every $10B out returns as $35B back. That's 27% of last year's annual revenue.
Michael Burry's review yesterday, same day as your filing:
"The future will regard this as fraud, not a flywheel. True end demand is ridiculously small. Almost all customers are funded by their dealers."
AMD BREAKS THE FOURTH WALL
Here's where your production falls apart:
AMD brought signed contracts.
You brought theater programs.
NVIDIA: Press release ✗ Letter of intent ✗ No contracts ✗ No warrants ✗ SEC disclaimer: "might not happen" ✗
THE BALANCE SHEET REVIEWS
Accounts Receivable:
January: $10.0B
October: $17.7B
77% growth in money owed but not collected
Bad Debt Reserves:
2020: 0.12%
2025: 0.02%
Cut 83% while receivables exploded
Translation: Selling tickets on credit to customers who can't pay while cutting refund budgets.
This isn't your first production.
He's been sanctioned before by the SEC
Lucent, 2000: Lent $2B to WinStar. WinStar bought Lucent equipment. WinStar bankrupted. Lucent wrote off $700M. Show closed.
NVIDIA, 2002: SEC found you guilty of revenue manipulation. Split agreements to hide liabilities. SEC sanctioned you (File No. 3-11171).
So this is a revival.
Same show, bigger stage.
THE FINAL ACT
September 22: Grand announcement with White House backdrop for "unprecedented $100B partnership"
November 19 (YESTERDAY): SEC filing: "no assurance"
58 days from opening night to "show might be cancelled."
Customers pay you.
Actors perform for you.
NVIDIA has press releases and SEC disclaimers.
One is theatre
One is commerce.
Yesterday, you admitted you might not get paid, Jensen.
Let's see if you can afford an encore.
@cg yep, that's exactly what is going on. The markets are down heavily today.
Fire JC, he promised stock to grow after RTO and Layoffs...
DELL stock is the next trillion dollar company. Let's do our part by making Michael the world's richest man! Are you all-in or are you a slacker?
If you trade on feelings and 24 hour snapshots, you should consider changing your strategy.
I always see after hours up and then things finish down for the day based on the news cycle. If the jobs report comes out and it is not good, forget about it.
@af Ummm, after hours don't count.
@a5 Big Deal. Zoom out to the 5yr for real context.
This post aged well. Not.
Jensen Huang signed some Dell gear, stock is up😉. Earnings are next week, don't hold your breath.
Ummm, everything was down and Dell is up over $4 after hours.
Umm, Dell finished down today while everything else was up.
NVDA is up 5% after earnings. DELL stock is also up. All AI stocks are UP.