Nike reported Q3 earnings on March, later than its typical mid-March timing. The stock dropped ~9% immediately after.
Because that move occurred after the ESPP purchase date, employees bought shares at a higher price than they otherwise would have.
The math:
Using reasonable estimates:
• ~$100M contributed into ESPP (6 months)
• ~9% price difference
If the drop had happened before purchase:
• Employees would have received ~10% more shares
• ≈ 200K additional shares
• ≈ $10M in additional value to employees (at ~$50/share)
What changed:
Because the decline came after the purchase:
• Employees received fewer shares for the same dollars
• That foregone value did not go to employees
Bottom line:
A modest shift in timing likely resulted in ~$10M less value delivered to employees through the ESPP, purely based on where the stock price landed at purchase.
Note At the time of this post, ESPP shares are not yet able to be sold. And may not be until April 6th; using historical data on distribution timing.