Wall street is projecting 1 cent earning per share, a huge turnaround from 46 cents loss last year. Hopefully we don’t disappoint and deliver to a already very low expectations. Will this be a reality check? Gut check? Or both?
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I'm slowly easing out here in the low $40s, although LBTs recent interview shows what he is up to, and it could take the stock much, much higher.
But I think before then that this market will at some point do some price discovery, only to discover that the buyers want a much lower price on everything.
If the Saudis buy in, the stock would go much higher, as they would be in a position to wipe out most if not all the remaining debt.
Also expecting more foundry wins, and anything that stops the losses is a big plus for the stock.
So it is an issue of timing, and I'm a lot more concerned about the large cap tech stocks that are driving the market, than with anything Intel related.
If the stock is driven back into the $20s, see if that sparks another round of reductions, because the fabs are still over-capacity, and there are sure to be more products to cull.
@w3 or Sweater Boy can just keep cooking the books turning mob investments and headcount actions into revenue
Intel is hardly the most extreme valuation out there, but WTF?
The government has owned the market since 2008 and look what it has done.
The market (aka the large cap tech stocks) is reaching some kind of extremity, and a retest of this rally from the April lows could get extreme.
Worth paying attention to because that would also severely test Intel stock, and that might spur LBT to push even harder for more cost efficiencies (Layoffs and BU shut down).
Company seems to be on the right track back towards some kind of relevance, but that is by no means a sure thing. Not that I think it will collapse or anything, but a serious recession would likely force the company to scale back even more. That could be what drives headcount to 60k and forces more asset sales, as the company tries to hold on till 14A and better products can be brought to market.
Often a turnaround will involve a false start or serious retrenching and that seems possible with Intel, and therefore with the stock.
Once either 18A or 14A customers have signed on then that should stop the IFS losses and enable Intel to move forward. But that might be another year or so, and a similar timing issue on the product side. It will take some time to bring products with any kind of AI relevance to market.
I think the big workforce reductions are done but note that hiring remains frozen, so it seems clear that LBT and the Board don't yet consider the turnaround to be done yet.
Not just Intel, but other stocks are either closing gaps from earnings pops, or moving down for failing to show extraordinary results.
To me that means that current prices match current results, so I'm looking for and expecting the mega cap tech to enable a pop to the top, then a fairly steep retest which may get to the April lows. Could be a flash crash or a more ordinary retest, of what has been a steep rally since April.
For Intel that means the low $40s then back to the mid $20s, and an awesome entry point at that level, imo, unless the global economy somehow, some way, some where goes off the rails. But if so then there will be more issues to deal with than whatever INTC is doing.
Been shorting the megacap tech (as a trade) while trading and otherwise holding INTC since the teens. If it ain't broke don't fix it.
And then the market realities come home:
No mutual funds want money here
AMD hits an all time high for FPGA for quantum
Same day everyone realizes pocket change investments from Gov and Nvidia won’t last- INTC barely closes positive
@c2 The market is more likely to be the source of downside, than anything the company is doing. I think getting to a $500B valuation is doable, but that will take a few years.
See if the Saudis get onboard, then see what external customers pick up 18A, as it appears that Microsoft is considering it for an AI product. Foundry already getting meaningful packaging contracts.
LBT made the additional reductions and shutting down of the worst BU's, and seems ready to do more as needed. Even IFS is showing the results of reducing the excess headcount and projects.
I think the stock is still in the process of moving to a higher range, and that it then will go wherever the market goes, so maybe the top is yet to be seen and the bottom will seem scary, yet be a historic entry point.
I invested most of my ERP package in the stock and will continue to use that to trade but mostly hold the stock.
2.3B loss by Foundry.
The main revenue came from Sale of Altera, Foundry is at loss. Scam.
Nice job Intel. Left last October and kept all my retiree Intel stock. Finally making big bucks off of Intel stock. I hope all the employees can share in this stock rise. Going to 100 in the next two years.
@aq what is your take now that we shattered 1 cent by 23x? Still the same debacle?
Do you guys see the Wall Street manipulation scam here? Intel only earn a few cents per share ( ~ 4B shares ) but the government already made of profit of > 10B just a few month without doing any chip sh-t instead of giving Intel 10B. Nice try and big frauds by scammers !!!
@b2 you meant announce in this earnings or future earnings .
More layoffs will be announced. You hear it first here and ready to pack your stuffs up.
@a7 Got the big beat as anticipated.
Now see if the recent $5 continuation range becomes the target, to something like $44.65.
The market and sector will almost certainly be the source of retest, as it appears that the company has pulled out of the ditch and will be careful not to re-ditch.
If they had gone to single ply toilet paper and dimmed 80% of the lights across all buildings boy blunder Dave maybe could have doubled that 1 cent adjusted EPS to an astonishing 2 cents EPS. Need more belt tightening! What a debacle.
No One expects the Spanish..Inquisition!
Bingo, during earnings more cuts will be announced. Third level managers at D1, erm F25, are preparing lists for the next culling with final decisions to be made in the next week with cuts coming across the tech population this time. Also, DMs preparing to walk exempt folks (no package) who have not met the onsite metrics in the coming quarter.
big bonus coming hehehe
Watch out for make up financial fraud reports
I think LBT and Super Dave have been working hard to create a positive earnings surprise and stop this fairly epic string of losses.
That might even mean additional headcount actions, even if not company wide.
Also seems possible there could be an announcement of either an 18A customer or another external investor, and certainly some talk about 18A products. The amount of dilution from the existing investments will also be made more clear.
So much like the market, I think the stock could pop into the low $40s, and that sets the top of a trading range, which extends down to something near $27. A great trade if that happens.
The stock price will drop by at least 10% after the earnings report. Even if it goes up in after hours after the report, it will crater tomorrow. It always does.