ANALYST PROJECTION (30000) :
Oracle has already allocated 1.6B money for its layoff. The analyst count of 30000 is based on those numbers. If Oracle uses its full remaining allocation 700+M to layoff people then around 18000 people should be affected.
Q3 FY26 (Projected) $400 Million 9,750 people
Q4 FY26 (Projected) $388 Million 9,460 people.
The overall count is around 29000 including those who were laid off in September-Jan timeframe.
EXPECTED REALITY
Now the question is how Oracle is going to layoff this number? all at once or in splits.
The another questions is if Oracle is use all its allocation?
For assumption if it just uses 50-70% of its allocation then the minimal layoff is 9000-12000 people.
This 9000-12000 is for sure without which Oracle can't survive. Again its the minimal quoted.
The above numbers are mainly done if reasonable senior positions are eliminated. If only lower grade positions, the numbers will be huge (12000+).
DELAYERING STRATEGY
Expect more middle management to go. Specially lots of Managers, Senior Managers, Directors and VP's to go. This is the only way to reduce the headcount in divisions.
Some Directors might report directly to Senior VP so they can cut down VP role.
If a Director holds less headcounts they might be targets
If your project shows less revenue (or) just a cost center, then the entire org might be wiped out.