Folks have been predicting peak oil since the 1960s, but new technology has always pushed the date back: secondary recovery, deepwater drilling technology, fracking, etc. In the last decade, however, conventional reserve replacement across the industry is sagging and few new unconventional plays have been found with significant potential. Considering renewable capacity growth to date does not even keep up with growth in energy demand (let along reducing our reliance on hydrocarbons) and known reserves are being depleted rapidly, is a future post peak oil energy crisis close at hand or will new technology again fill the gap?
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@6nzg, I know history has shown us to be short-sighted to say this, but it's hard to imagine what the next peak oil delaying technology will be. When you're already fracing the source rock or the ultra-tight reservoir, what else is left? We've drilled as deep as nature preserves HCs, we've drilled the deepwater, there are no more 'virgin' basins to find huge reserves, exploration techniques have matured, seismic has no more upside, drilling is as efficient as it can ever be, there is no more research going on, and companies now view stock buybacks and dividend payments as 'core competencies'. Throw in the distraction of the greenies, and you reach the inescapable conclusion that it's all downhill from here. If you think I'm wrong, just look at the most recent (2021) Annual Report, and witness the 'technologies' SR is touting.
Peak oil is an interesting question because technology has proven estimates wrong again and again over the years. That said, I have no idea what technology would stem our current reserves declines. Then again, two decades ago, I would have never guessed fracing shale would be a thing.
Hubbard's Peak Oil Theory only took into account conventional oil with the secondary recovery techniques available at the time. By that logic, we reached peak oil probably somewhere in the 2000's decade. When you incorporate post-Hubbard technology advances, that pushes back peak oil to maybe 2018 as someone else mentioned. The real question now is not whether technology can keep up (it could, given appropriate investment), but whether regulation and public opinion will allow peak production to continue into the near future. If people are stupid enough to believe the radicals who sponsor renewable technology with no possible capacity to substitute for fossil fuels, then we are in for a rough times, probably beginning around 2027 when production declines start to become significant. In summary, peak oil will probably be reached due to human intervention, not natural limits.
We have been “a few years” from peek oil since like the 1950s. The whole theory is rubbish.
I suspect we are near peak oil, even though there are potential reserves in Venezuela, Iran, and Russia that could still max the record for a while: However they probably will not be realized in time to stem the current long-term declines elsewhere.
No, I don’t think so, @tzi. I think the WEF and Gretna will see the end of their game real soon.
We are in a post peak oil age. Peak oil occurred in late 2018 (crude + condensate) at about 84-85 mmbopd. Big question is can that peak be exceeded?? Since the big decline in production from covid in 2020, global production has rebounded back to about 81-82 mmbopd.
@icqe - Was that a chatGPT response? Well played.
The question of whether we are approaching a post-peak oil energy crisis is a complex one with multiple factors to consider. While it is true that new technology has consistently pushed back the predicted date of peak oil, it is also true that conventional reserve replacement has been sagging and new unconventional plays are getting impossible to find.
In addition, the global demand for energy continues to grow, and renewable energy capacity growth has not yet caught up with our demands. However, it is worth noting that renewable energy sources are becoming increasingly cost-competitive with fossilized fuels, and significant investments are being made in researching and developments of new renewable technology.
It is also possible that new technology, such as carbon capture and storage or advanced nuclear fusion, could fill the gap left by declining oil reserves. However, it is important to note that these technologies are still in the early stages of development and face significant challenges in terms of scalability and public acceptance.
Ultimately, the future of energy depends on very very complex interplay of factors, including technological innovation, market forces, and policy decisions. While it is difficult to predict the precise timing and nature of a post-peak oil energy crisis, it is clear to everyone that the transition to a more sustainable and diverse energy mix will be essential for ensuring the long-term stability of the global economy and the health of our green planet!
Um, electric planes have been flying for over a decade. Google "E Fan X". United has committed to becoming emissions-free in a couple decades or less.
Try to fly your jet on farts
I took a Peak at the gas pump prices today when I filled up my SUV. They are still are going up, so I don’t think we’ve seen top prices yet. Any more questions?
Well the WEF and Greta are going to make sure your peak oil comes real soon.
Prepare to wear mandatory Solar Head Gear to support California’s power grid in its move away from Fossil Fuels.