Are they selling dark fiber for 20 year IRU's can it be monitored?

https://www.lightreading.com/ai-machine-learning/lumen-said-it-will-haul-in-billions-from-upcoming-ai-deals

“Even if parts of that network are dated, Lumen is investing in expanding its reach, upgrading its fiber and adding capacity to existing routes. This activity creates a huge barrier to entry for any other company trying to offer network-as-a-service (NaaS), edge computing or data center interconnect.”

“ In the short term, Lumen doesn't need to have all the answers about how or if AI will help most companies. It just needs to ensure plenty of jeans, picks and shovels are available while prospectors pan for gold.”

“ Meanwhile, on Tuesday AI infrastructure was the central talking point for Lumen execs as they reported lower than expected Q2 earnings and a lower annual earnings projection.”

This article is saying there is no there, there . . . characterizing it as a build it and they will come play.

Comment! It's anonymous!

17 replies (most recent on top)

Isn’t monitored / managed fiber referred to as “dim fiber”? Dark is just terminated strands within a given sheath, no end electronics provided. Customer can mux as needed.

And the Lumen hype train keeps rolling on. I guess they plan on keeping up the hype indefinitely.

"Free cash flow is the more important measurement of success....proving profit" lol.
PROVING profit. Really? Is that all that counts now? A company doesnt have to really be profitable as long as they have cash flow. Good to know.

We're a technology company now, this is how things are done in tech. No profit necessary just good marketing and lots of hype.

"At the end of the year, we believe Free Cash Flow remains the most important measurement of business success proving profit. The below range will continue to be raised as the mammoth ongoing demand for AI "fiber" which Satish pointed to being $50-$60B in Total Addressable Market...."

And the Lumen hype train keeps rolling on. I guess they plan on keeping up the hype indefinitely.
"Free cash flow is the more important measurement of success....proving profit" lol.
PROVING profit. Really? Is that all that counts now? A company doesnt have to really be profitable as long as they have cash flow. Good to know.
And remember...700k of that free cash flow last quarter was from a one time tax credit.

At the end of the year, we believe Free Cash Flow remains the most important measurement of business success proving profit. The below range will continue to be raised as the mammoth ongoing demand for AI "fiber" which Satish pointed to being $50-$60B in Total Addressable Market when he presented yesterday are "closed." Five billion is already concluded with 7 Billion in the hopper ready to pop out, and another $38-$48B being addressed on the horizon.

I'll go back to Reddit now so that I may wake up "Roaring Kitty" from her nap!

Free Cash Flow Outlook

Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2024

Range

Low

High

Net cash provided by operating activities

$ 4,100

4,500

Capital expenditures

(3,100)

(3,300)

Free Cash Flow

$ 1,000

1,200

"How can we get rid of the horrible BEARS permeating this site next? The best way will for the stock price to continue rising as they contemplate su----e for all their dirty deed! "

Lol. Ive got a great idea to get rid of the Bears. How about Lumen becoming profitable? Stansbury has already said thats not projected to happen for a few quarters.
So you expect a money losing company to be 100 a share because of hope? Go back to reddit.

"Stock is up and talk is about what they're hyping, not actual numbers."

So the free cash flow number that puts to bed any liquidity issues (so much so that they're pulling capex FORWARD because of it) wasn't an actual number in the revised guidance? Keep smoking the good stuff.

I think you underestimate the Lumen "marketing team" that Kate thanked on the call last week. They can throw out press release a week sprinkled with a bit of AI that will keep the reddit traders all charged up.
Itll take a few quarters of losses for them to start to accept the reality of the poorly managed company they've gotten into.
22 hours ago by Anonymous | 3 reactions (+3/-0)
Post ID: @5drt+1tTwLkSr

Wow. That's a singularity. The hyped news was no big news at all, but somehow it pushed the stock price up for Kate friends. Unfortunately there was huge volume buying up near $5 and they'll never get their money back.

I think they kicked the can up the road. Did you read the full reports of Q2. Lumen is seeking to pull back debt due 2026-2027 to 2025. None of the balance sheets support $5 stock price. Stock is being driven by hype so be careful putting money in now.
3 days ago by Anonymous | 4 reactions (+4/-0)
Post ID: @2cxs+1tTwLkSr

Haha, how many fools bought in between August 7 to 12? Just look at the trading volume, more buy volume then sell volume. Many are stuck holding the bag of big loss. The shorts are making decent money over past week.

Not in Lumen's current form. Do you think they want to be a carrier to the consumer?
I also dont think they want the regulatory headache. There will be lots of hurdles to overcome with the US Govt if they own and control most of the conduit in the US.
I definitely see more partnerships though.

If you keep looking into the many yet mostly quiet reports that are out there, Lumen is being setup for an acquisition by Microsoft. There's good reason Lumen is aligning with and integrating with a single company, Microsoft.

So Lumen will become Microsoft's telecommunications department?

That's my point. It's not about numbers, it's hype and the market is eating it up.

Stock is up and talk is about what they're hyping, not actual numbers. I'd say their marketing strategy is working for now. Keep kicking the can down the road. Or off the cliff.
1 day ago by Anonymous | 3 reactions (+3/-0)
Post ID: @1yvc+1tTwLkSr

5 Billion = 250 Million over 20 years.
Not exactly the windfall our marketing dept would have everyone believe.
1 day ago by Anonymous | 4 reactions (+4/-0)
Post ID: @eqf+1tTwLkSr

AI demand is much faster than 20 years. The reporting suggests fast tracking new fiber over next 5 years. You also failed to subtract out the needed capex of approx $3.3 billion. The net revenue is more like 1.7 billion over 5 years, 340 million per year. It's a good ratio but it's also a finite project. To date there has been no execution on any of this. If Lumen can execute without overrun in capex then the whole thing was a good move. Nobody believes Lumen can execute without hiccups. Competitors are firces these days and they too are going after anything related to "AI". If you keep looking into the many yet mostly quiet reports that are out there, Lumen is being setup for an acquisition by Microsoft. There's good reason Lumen is aligning with and integrating with a single company, Microsoft.

You neglect to mention that "this time" the customers, especially the largest internet based tech companies in the world with TRILLION DOLLAR MARKET CAPS are "financing" Lumen to place jeans, picks, and shovels on the ground to compliment existing network components like conduits already sunk across U.S. Mountain ranges and prairies 26+ years ago with Level 3&Qwest, or building new ones tailored to those tech companies exact needs for the next 20 years to be "sticky."

Leading Whales will continue to attract the wide open ocean of sea life all the way down to minnows making Lumen the defacto communications network in the history of the world like Level 3 was originated for becoming.

Watch the incessant "sales bookings" converting to massive free cash flows for a plethora of services beyond DF that continues aggregating on top of the $7B "ongoing" negotiations waiting for "closure" and in "play."

The Lumen Network is now a Golden Goose and free cash flow generating machine.

Stock is up and talk is about what they're hyping, not actual numbers. I'd say their marketing strategy is working for now. Keep kicking the can down the road. Or off the cliff.

5 Billion = 250 Million over 20 years.
Not exactly the windfall our marketing dept would have everyone believe.

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Are they selling dark fiber for 20 year IRU's can it be monitored?

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