Thread regarding Sears layoffs

A possible scenario for Sears

o one can predict the SHLD's future. But you can speculate about the most likely outcome in SHLD's bankruptcy case All roads in SHLD's bankruptcy seem to lead to one place - all of the related entities for the man in charge of this affair.

Most likely: The bankruptcy court will approve almost every motion put forward to the court by management, including the Chairman, who , counting related parties, may also the the largest secured creditor, and may be the majority shareholder for the SHLD's largest landlord. There will be objections during the process but most likely without any material impact on the outcome.

Perhaps: The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation will take over the pension obligations and former employee's pension benefits will be reduced, perhaps significantly.

Perhaps: Seritage, with the committed capital of one of the world's wealthiest men, will grow and prosper. In the next five years, the majority shareholder and the man from Nebraska will probably realize profits on SHLD's former real estate far and above any current of it's current projections.

Perhaps: The 400 stores and leases will possibly be owned free and clear after bankruptcy by the some or all of the closely related entities that were deeply intertwined in SHLD's organization prior to bankruptcy. The new owners of the former SHLD real estate will probably realize long term profits structured far more profitable than any other part of the former SHLD organization - including Seritage

Perhaps: The secured creditors of SHLD may see an impressive recovery of their claims.

Perhaps: As a result, unsecured claims could be be paid at a few pennies on the dollar.

Shareholders will likely receive zero.

Originally posted by @W2eoleS-1wnu . I understand this just a prediction of the original poster how things might pan out, but I think there is a strong possibility that a scenario like this can become a reality.

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| 1334 views | | 10 replies (last November 12, 2018) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+W4k25fC

10 replies (most recent on top)

@2fbl - "Don't underestimate EL. He wants to be Bezos." If EL wanted to be Bezos, why didn't he start 10 years ago when SHLD was in better shape? Why would SHLD in bankruptcy be a superior starting point for such an endeavor?

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Post ID: @2pnr+W4k25fC

Walmart and Target are already much better-positioned than any remnant of Sears as Amazon competitors. Their shipping offers are what drove Amazon to remove their free-shipping minimum for the holiday season this year.

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Post ID: @2rfo+W4k25fC

Remember the prize: $Trillion Amazon needs a competitor. Sears could be it. A few more days/weeks/months of bad business and Eddie will buy the core business for a pittance and you'll see how smart he really is. The business will turn to profitability in a year, then it'll fly.

As a customer, I've loved SYW. 100% back in points with 20% off the initial sale price and 20% off when I spend the points. Throw in some Freecash and it's a clear path to bankruptcy. Seriously... I'd buy $40 items from marketplace sellers and get $40 back in SYW points! He did it on purpose and can turn it off when he wants to. Yes, he'll lose me as a customer, but why would an actual business care?

Don't underestimate EL. He wants to be Bezos.

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Post ID: @2fbl+W4k25fC

There are about 500 total Sears+Kmarts remaining (and not already announced to be liquidated) at the moment.

Have you found a list which of these are leased? Or at least quantity of Sears and quantity of Kmarts? I heard last year that almost all of the Kmarts are leased. Kmart never had the real estate ownership model that Sears used to have.

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Post ID: @1oji+W4k25fC

There are not 500 Kmarts left. As I type SHC is in negotiations to get out of all leased stores, Sears and Kmart. The BK judge would have to approve the buying out of leases but it seems that any leased store will be in the next round of closures, probably after Christmas.

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Post ID: @1tzx+W4k25fC

So where's the money going to come from to renovate all those stores? Or do you think they're going to leave them as ratty as they are now and the customers are going to come flocking back, "just because"?

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Post ID: @znw+W4k25fC

I'm not sure why people don't think a new owner without all the debt can't make Kmart a successful chain of 500?

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Post ID: @otn+W4k25fC

Common stockholders get nothing in a bankruptcy.

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Post ID: @rbv+W4k25fC

The OP sounds like they have been drinking prior to writing this , or they just do not understand . Eddie is going to make out like a bandit , everyone else will be a looser in this fiasco .

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Post ID: @bqn+W4k25fC

read the BK documents, the creditors think the wishful thinking is dangerous and they don't see a path forward , Mitch Nolan Retail on Twitter is sharing excerpts

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Post ID: @dkm+W4k25fC

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