Thread regarding Intel Corp. layoffs

Intel Post ID: @V3UAEMB-1uhj, if they were not able to get a truely workable 10nm process with high yields and reliable devices. Had to make sigificanficant compromises to the design of their 10nm process and the devices themselves to get a device produced on a 10nm process. Then it's not likely they can start developing a 7nm process and devices manufactured using this process technology.

Intel can’t supply 14nm Xeons, HPE directly recommends AMD Epyc. Likely Dell was put in the same position as HPE.

Intel's competitors are shipping devices built on there own 7nm processes. Likely working on 5nm.

10nm is old news, what about 7nm?

@lxm Same old copy-pasta with the same old BS.

The laughably low number of usable crippled 2-core parts with no GPU per wafer means Intel is taking a huge hit for every one of those things sold. LOL.

To correct misinformation about Intel on this site . . .

I. On Intel's (INTC) "failure" to move to 10nm - Intel is shipping its 10nm chips in Lenovo and NUC computers right now. A patent firm tore one down and wrote a 20 page paper on it, and proclaimed it at least as good as competitors anticipated 7nm.

II. On AMD's (AMD) anticipated Rome 7nm server chips

• Intel's 28-core Cascade Lake beat AMD's 7nm Rome for the 2019 35 PFLOPS supercomputer: "We took a look at AMD Epyc, both Naples and certainly Rome but with the combination of price, schedules, and performance, we felt like Cascade Lake was the way to get the best value right now."

• AMD's anticipated 7nm producer, Global Foundries, just said they wouldn't proceed with AMD's fab. On that same day, their top "senior vice president and general manager of the Computing and Graphics Business Group"Jim Anderson left. Why would you leave a rising company?

• AMD is now tied to one supplier, TSMC, which is not a good negotiating position.

III. On AMD's latest Epyc chips. These are a power disaster. The red bars on the anandtech 2990wx analysis, graph on page 4, are wasted energy. The reason it's so inefficient is that Infinity Fabric is power hungry. This is a problem because Infinity Fabric is AMD's way of implementing a bunch of cores on one chip.

IV. On the recent stock price increases. AMD has not lifted revenue, earnings, market share or other guidance since its 2Q call. In other words, the price increase since then is not based on material new information.

• Remember FOMO and bubbles.

• Cowen upgraded AMD to $30 based on $1.75 EPS and $10 billion revenue, which is aggressive and unlikely. AMD is almost at $30 now on pennies of EPS and much less revenue.

• Bank of America upgraded AMD to $35 based on $2 of EPS.

• AMD will probably have $0.12 (12 cents) of EPS the next two quarters.

• Some think the analysts have secret information that the public doesn't know, but that's impossible. AMD would violate SEC Regulation FD by doing that, and there's no reason to give analysts secret information that you withhold from investors.

V. On AMD's cash cow (graphics). It just lost to NVDA which revolutionized GPUs by implementing ray tracing on popular games. No serious gamer can see this video and not want an NVDA RTX, which is completely sold out on preorders.

• Incidentally, Intel dominates GPU in terms of market share (via its in-CPU graphics processors)

VI. On the future and innovation. Intel continues to plug away . . . AI, FPGA, driverless, 5g/wireless, advanced memory, quantum. If the past is any guide, when Intel makes money on these others will jump on board with "me too" but by then Intel will be onto the next thing.

• FPGA. Intel (via its purchase of Altera) is gaining on the only other player on the market.

• Wireless. Qualcomm just admits it lost Iphone to Intel. Qualcomm Admits That It Just Lost the iPhone to Intel.

• AI. Intel sold $1 billion of AI chips this year.

• 5G. These 4 companies will be the big early winners from the $326 billion push to 5G.

VII. On culture. Intel is an outstanding place to work. AMD has lost key personnel like Raja Khoduri, Jim Keller and Jim Anderson.

• Best Workplaces.

• Fortune Best Companies to Work For

• Working Mother Best Companies

VIII. On political and trade risk. AMD has huge political and market share risk due to a JV that allows Chinese companies to sell Epyc clones. The history is below.

• In August 2015, the U.S. barred Intel (and implicitly AMD) from selling high-end server chips to a few (but not all) Chinese customers due to national security concerns. Intel complied.

• A few months later, China went to Lisa Su to get basically the same chip from AMD via a complicated joint venture that complied with the letter of the law -- because the chip would not be sold by a U.S. company but would rather be sold by the Chinese JV (so no need to ask the U.S. for permission to export it to Chinese customers).

• A month ago, China started producing these Epyc server chip clones. As this article explains, they have a different name but are EXACTLY Epyc chips.

• The U.S. government is due to publish a report on Chinese theft of U.S. semiconductor IP that could name and shame AMD. "ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. INTEGRATED CIRCUIT DESIGN AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY"

• Based on the timing, it's clear the ONLY reason this JV was set up was to circumvent the government's ban.

• These chips will be in the hands of those very customers the U.S. government said couldn't have them.

• They will be taking market share from Epyc and only paying AMD a tiny royalty, instead of the large margins it would have made on Epyc.

2019 will be like 2018 will be like 2017, waiting and waiting for 10nm.

The capacity plans and factory roadmaps from 6 years ago all assumed it would all be on 10nm and 14nm factories would be repositioned

Bit after SA promises couldn’t be kept all the roadmaps both product and factory a total mess with inability to meet the strong demand .

Now AMD and ARM offering 7nm next year is the perfect storm for TMG and Intel

Haven't we received the traditional yearly message that "10 nm will be available in quantity for the Christmas season" yet?

So, what percentage of D1X is on 14nm vs 10nm? The long-term plan was to have this fab cookin' on 10nm by now - without that output, Intel is indeed in major trouble.

10nm FUBAR what a mess, more than BK should have been replaced because of this, who will take the blame?

While Swan vegetates in his office wondering how he'll retire on $100m.

Fab issues with 1272/4, not surprised....