Thread regarding Seagate Technology Inc. layoffs

HAMR does work; the whole battle has Seagate engineering has labored to prove is that they can secure the drive's reliability against the high temperatures required. Seagate is close to showing it can be done. Their problem is that MAMR eliminates the reliability risk since it doesn't require a high temperature to overcome the coercivity of the disk material. All of Seagate's hard work gets flushed down the toilet if MAMR is successful.

Or it might be the bees knees and everyone will want one.

awnt, it appears your method of proposing an opposing view is to invent fake facts regarding the new technology, make grand statements proving it is irrelavent (because you say it is so), and then degrade the future of said technology by making up scenarios that prop-up your fake arguement even further.

Too bad the rest of the world that knows a bit more about technology than you do believes Seagate is doing well and has a great future.

But still, I must say, congradulations. You've attained the order of Grand Trump. Your fake news will likely get 7 Troll-thumbs-up. Quite an accomplishment, for a slanderous douchebag.

Cheers.

If the new technology proposed is not cost effective, reliable, and significant improvement over existing technology and other alternative then it is just waste of time and resources. Ultimately the Market decides what is innovative and efficient. If HAMR was then it would have been already accepted and reflected on the value of the company as NVDIA chips are. You can engage in a science project forever but do not toot that it is the cutting edge solution offered to the customers. At best it would be third class power hungry solution dumped at loss in the area where reliability and performance do not matter.

Well said 9csr. Some people on this board have little regard for the innovation, investment, and determination it takes to develop new technologies such as perpendicular revording, real-time fly height control, multiple micro-actuator, dual writer, HAMR... the list goes on and on. Which would explain Seagate's 6-time placement in the "Top 100 Global Innovators" list. Sadly, WD has made the list only once.

As always, you can

Perp recording took decades to finally develop into a working product. As I recall, WD played no role in development and had to play copycat to catch up. Go ahead and drink your mammary milk and we'll see where you are in two years.

HAMR has been talked about for decades and Seagate testing 40,000 drives doesn't really mean that the test results will be to the liking of their customer base. It is Seagate trying to project an image of leadership because they are desperate to make it look like HAMR is ready for prime time.

As far as I know, the WD announce last October is the first public mention of MAMR to investors. Could be similar to Seagate in trying to project a source for further areal density growth. Then again, WD delivered on He drives before Seagate figured out what was going on. I have more faith in a company that makes things happen promptly, than in one that presents it as a plan for nearly twenty years and hasn't yet delivered.

As to Seagate working on MAMR. They may be, but if they are they are very tight-lipped about it. They have been selling HAMR for so long that if it came out that they were working on MAMR as a backup, it would totally undercut confidence that they were planning to deliver HAMR.

I think Seagate would be working hard in MAMR as well, even just as a back up. It would be plain stupidity and arrogance if they are not. When WD ships MAMR and customers prefer it over HAMR then they would be doomed. They only have HDD business and if they loose market share in that also then you might as well close your shop and go home.

Let me see if I have this right...Seagate has shipped over 40,000 customer samples months ago, and WD is "saying" they will ship the very first Mammary drive in 2019.

It sounds like WD is in a race to be last. That should fire-up the employees to try harder, so they can be even more last.

Prior WD announcement said that they would have first customer samples and production of MAMR in 2019.

40K HAMR drives currently tested at various customer site, two new HAMRs products will be out in Q1 2019....

Where's the MAMR response to this? Look at WD share now....

MAMR’s reliability is also probably not comparable to the conventional drives. STNOs are notorious to work with and the yield probably s---s, if the program even exists. Having said that, personally I would prefer MAMR if both technologies were offered at the same the price point and storage capacity. But we are probably stuck with HAMR and I will grudging buy these drives over SSD just because they would be much cheaper just for backup even with multiple redundancy.

4wbk, your link is to a self-serving blog published by Seagate. It's not objective, not capable of being confirmed by outside sources. It likely has nothing to do with reality, similar to Elon Musk saying that the Model 3 will make Tesla profitable.

Seagate might have gotten away with pushing HAMR into the market when no one was discussing an alternate technology, such as MAMR. If both exist with similar performance, no sane customer will buy the one with the higher reliability risk because Seagate says its OK. I doubt anyone would put their job on the line for that promise.

From what I heard, WD's announcement of MAMR is more of a stunt to boost their stock price when they had a bad PR with Toshiba NAND factories. However, HAMR is still nowhere near mass production. The problem is we have to make significant trade-off between drive capacity and life time.

2ugg, now you look stupid in front of the entire earth.

Per the link I provided earlier, the official announcement released by Seagate to the public said the following regarding HAMR:

"Reliability: Tests proved single-head data transfers of over 2PB, exceeds real-world specifications..."

"....this equates to 35PB of data transferred in a five-year life on a 12TB drive — far beyond any real-world application expectations. And despite early concerns among some industry watchers, no wear-leveling is used in Seagate HAMR drives, nor is it needed to achieve the reliability we’ve demonstrated."

We don't know if MAMR has a reliability problem because there hasn't been any public announcements regarding MAMR. Which usually means the technology in question is far from ready and real world application is likely several years away.

Oh, and listen to your Mom: Don't hold your raisins too much. You might go blind.

Just because Seagate produced 40k HAMR drives for testing doesn't mean the reliability problem is solved. Does MAMR have a similar problem? If it doesn't, then customers will prefer it and force Seagate to adopt it. I think hold my raisans doth protest too much...

Like watching a tennis match. Sitting on the edge of my seat waiting for someone to take a 110 mph projectile right to the privates.

Do trolls have privates?

Ewww..... big trolls making little trolls with their nasty privates.... gaaaa.

I think I am going to throw-up.

2dvp, you also look stupid now in front of the entire earth.

https://blog.seagate.com/craftsman-ship/hamr-next-leap-forward-now/

I'm betting you are wishing now that you had held your 'tongue' in that last post and done a little actual research first, huh.

Or perhaps you think your boisterous manner somehow makes you more convincing? Sadly, nothing could be further from the truth. School-yard bully, internet troll, Trump-wanna-be, nasty Olympic physician... you all have one thing in common: Nobody wants to see you or hear from you anymore.

Byeeeee.

His Masjesty's Balls, while a tad crass, makes a valid point. Why do so many people simply copy what other people dribble out of their bung hole and then hold it up and point to it and proclaim it must be true because it was published somewhere on the internet?

More likely, it is bogus information created for the sole purpose to cause discord and discontent. The act of promoting it places SqDuyun-ean and the others praising the piece in the same catagory as the original poster: A fake news troll.

The internet can be a great place to learn, grow, and share. Lets not succumb to the lowest denominator that takes joy in generating lies and causes people to clash. K?

40K drives build, but how many of those shipped to the customers? And to how many customers? What about the revenue and profit? None disclosed to the investors. The answer has always been we are working on it. Billions invested and 25 years toiled, yet the answer is we areworking on it. HAMR = Head fake while we sell our equity. Classic definition of vaporware.

MAMR = fake news.

How many MAMR drives have we heard are in existance? Just the one demo they had at the last CES.

How many HAMR drives have been shipped for customer testing? Over 40,000, and that was the official tally reported to the stock holders several months ago, so it can only be more now. How many customer complaints? None that I have heard of.

When you copy/paste platently fake/slanted "information" from a source without taking into account factual information from all parties, you look gullible and stupid in front of the entire earth.

At this point in time, Seagate is listed as one of the top 5 tech companies to be investing in. None of the other companies mentioned in your "article" can say that.

...well, I guess they can say whatever they wish, but have the baIIs (and brains) to make your own INFORMED opinion.

You're silly if you think Seagate doesn't already have their own IP on MAMR. Everyone has worked on it one time or other the last 10 years.

Seagate will be forced to buy a license for MAMR once customers make their choice clear. WD will be forced to license it to Seagate because no OEM wants a single source.

A good article... Just in case they put it behind a paywall, I am preserving it for everyone who wants to read it - it's time well spent

Western Digital vs. Seagate: Battle Royale of ‘HAMR’ Against ‘MAMR’

ByTiernan Ray Updated March 28, 2018 12:25 p.m. ET

The smartphone market is still quite weak, according to Barclays analyst Mark Moskowitz, and that’s helping ease supply of NAND flash chips, which could in turn boost sales of solid-state storage, a good thing for Western Digital (WDC), Pure Storage (PSTG), and NetApp (NTAP), in his opinion.

But the most interesting part of Moskowitz's research is buried at the back of his note

He sees as a big tech battle this year between Western and Seagate Technology (STX).

They are both rolling out new technology for their conventional spinning magnetic hard-disk drives.

Western, he thinks, has the better technology for hard drives, called “MAMR,” versus Seagate’s, “HAMR”:

What technology could be better? HAMR’s use of a laser generates a significant amount of heat, and it appears that end customers’ concerns still remain about the long-term longevity for HAMR drives given the wear that that excessive head could create. Early indications seem to show that if WD is able to release a MAMR drive on the same timeline, hyperscalers are likely to roll out this technology instead, given it is functionally similar to PMR drives and generates no long-term wear and tear from heat generation. This could turn 2019 into a significant divergence event for the HDD industry, with WD potentially being a significant share gainer in 2020+ as a result.

In regards to flash chips, which takes up the bulk of Moskowitz’s note, he observes that “since our Asia technology field trip earlier this month, our research indicates smartphone unit volumes remain soft,” writes Moskowitz.

That remark certainly echoes lots of claims of slowing smartphone sales, especially in China. Just see the continued estimate cuts for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone this morning.

"If sustained, NAND pricing could continue to fall.” In particular, he is modeling a drop in NAND “contract” prices of about 7.5% per quarter.

Nothing to be alarmed about, writes Moskowitz, as that’s “still within range of expected 2018 NAND cost takedowns between 20-30%.” Even with those declines, parts will still deliver good gross-profit margin, he contends.

The lower cost should boost solid-state drive, or “SSD," demand:

With a softer smartphone market, we think the stage is set for NAND supply to improve, resulting in lower component pricing. As a result, there could be greater signs of price elasticity from a consumption perspective within SSDs, helping SSD vendors such as Western Digital to ramp unit volumes as a partial counter to NAND ASP declines.

Now, there’s bound to be some handwringing, but Moskowitz writes that "the beginning of a downturn in NAND prices is not always negative for SSD vendors, given its ability to spur higher SSD attach rates and additional buyer interest at reduced prices."

“We are still in the first quarter of reduced SSD pricing, which according to historical precedent means that accelerated unit uptake could help to drive demand and vendor revenue for another 2-3 quarters."

That should benefit not only Western but also Pure and NetApp, who sell storage equipment for enterprises and cloud-computing vendors that cluster together multiple SSDs into a total system. High prices hurt the so-called “all-flash array” market in 2017, and things could improve with lower prices:

As NAND prices rose to highly elevated levels throughout 2017, the rate of adoption appears to have slowed and actually declined in the second and third quarter of the year, staying close to 14% for all of 2017. We believe this was mostly caused by increased SSD/NAND prices which resulted in elevated AFA pricing. This resulted in customers who were not buying for essential applications holding off on purchases. We expect that this penetration rate will continue to rise significantly again as NAND prices decline and those pricing reductions get passed on to AFAs.

Moskowitz rates Western stock at Overweight, and the same for Pure and NetApp. He rates Seagate at Underweight.

Western shares are down 42 cents at $91.26, Pure is up 7 cents at $19.26, NetApp is off $1.45, or 2.4%, at $59.74, and Seagate is down 45 cents, or 0.8%, at $56.92.

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