Thread regarding Intel Corp. layoffs

No matter what they say, Silicon chips will tell the truth. Let's wait & see which company will start producing their 10nm or 7nm or whatever technology product which is considered comparable.

Either way, Intel had already lost their edge. The path from now would be the same as any other semiconductor companies that had fallen and/or acquired companies, no matter how well they struggle.

Intel never had any three years lead.

Problem was that industry analysts used benchmark metrics proposed by Intel and by Intel's metrics Intel's process was, surprisingly, best.

But reality was that even old 28nm has much better density than Intel's 22nm. Same with 14nm. Intel's 14nm was heavily over-hyped but in real world AMD ZEN on 14nm(Globalfoundries licensed from Samsung) was 10% smaller with 20% smaller caches (per MB).

So don't be suprised that Intel is losing lead, well, they can't lose what they never had.

If Intel had a lead then it was in marketing and to regain this leadership, they will introduce new density metrics as soon as possible (next manufacturing day).

Where is Intel’s three year lead? They had a three year lead three years ago.

Intel will have a few die shipped next year and TSMC, Samsung and GF will all have variants of 7nm in production at far higher volume.

Stock maybe up but the clown and the TMG and LTD have totally bungled their process lead

@1fac - Gold post.

10nm is always due in 201x, where 'x' is a quantum state that can't be nailed down, usually one year out.

Decent article. Interesting that Intel is still presenting 10nm at these conferences, not a future node. By Intel's own comparison (and basically in the article) Intel's 10nm and GF 7nm are similar processes, named differently due to their own metrics. Intel points this out in their TMG presentations earlier this year, particularly comparing Intel 10nm and TSMC/Samsung 10nm. The problem is that the latter two are in production with their 10nm nodes, which are actually more dense than the Intel 14nm node(s). Intel, as we all know, is behind.

So, let's say that GF, TSMC and Samsung all go into production on their versions of the 7nm node by end of 2018. Intel will presumably have the 10nm node in production. Fair assumption? If yes, then all major worldwide fab companies will have VERY SIMILAR TRANSISTOR DENSITY. Please note the caps - this means that there is PARITY in semiconductor fabs, and Intel no longer has a three or two or even one year lead - they are at parity with everyone else.

And that's when the story falls apart.

"With the foundry 7nm processes similar in density to Intel's 10nm..."

Remember how 14nm foundry was supposed to be generation or two behind Intel's 14nm and AMD ZEN still was able to be 10% smaller than Skylake? This time it might be really disaster for Intel specially in high core count models because AMD can put 64 cores on area (or price) similar to 32 core Intel processor.

Regarding Intel's 7nm... Or how they will call it, let forget about it for a moment.

Important is that TSMC plans to spend $20B to built 3nm fab in 2020.

Since both Intel, TSMC and Samsung use same suppliers for fab equipment it means that everyone who will want competitive process in 2020 and beyond will have to spend at least 20B$ on fab.

If process will be delayed to 2022, then additional $5B might be required on upgrades.

Now question is, will Intel be able to raise $20B just one year after 10nm launch?

The GF 7nm process is expected in the second half of 2018. The Intel 10nm is already late and I am hearing late 2018 and possibly even 2019 before it enters production. This presents a fascinating change in the semiconductor industry. Intel introduced 45nm, 32nm, 22nm and 14nm in 2007, 2009, 2011 and 2014 respectively. For many generations Intel was on a 2-year process introduction cadence, now they have gone to 3 years and 4+ years and while their scaling at 14nm was such that even at 3-years their yearly scaling pace was unchanged, they are now drifting off of that at 4+ year. It also begs the question of when Intel will introduce 7nm, are we now looking at 2022 or 2023?

In the mean time TSMC introduced 10nm in 2016/2017 and 7nm in 2017/2018 with 5nm due in 2019 and 3nm development underway. Samsung also introduced 10nm in 2017 with 8nm due 2017/2018, 7nm due 2018/2019, 6nm and 5nm due in 2019 and 4nm in 2020. GF is introducing 7nm in 2018 with a shrunk version due around 2019. GF hasn't discussed 5nm yet but I would expect it this decade. With the foundry 7nm processes similar in density to Intel's 10nm process and several foundry generations likely to come out by the time Intel introduces 7nm, I would expect a significant density advantage for the foundries over the next several years.

It is also surprising to me to see how far Intel has fallen from the process lead they had. First with HKMG by several years, first with FinFet by several year, I suppose they are still first to do cobalt interconnect but in terms of process density the foundries have caught them and appear poised to take a substantial lead over the next several years.