will NOT bring the premium in this scenario to offset the metric paid, as timing (and competent leadership) is everything in this business. Also scary overhang re COP held shares, are there any strings attached we don't know of ?
Pondering what would happen if;
1) CVE discontinues sale process as negative commodity timing,stressed balance sheet won't benefit sufficiently given market demand for assets(announcing no acceptable bids,or accepting low balls won't help either), terminate numerous mid to sr level mgmnt/exec's. prove substantial G&A improvement by Q3
2)Concurrently set up a new entity/listing for all the conventional assets, CVE to hold majority of stock,balance to market on non-div.basis by latest Q1/18
3) Announce a very astute, proven AND respected,external, Exec Team (enough Esso/Shell/Major oil types, more intermediate Whitecap type w track record of experience in conventional play)s, retain best existing,motivated technical/support COP staff. Issue options to newco to offset salary reduction of 10% across the newco, Exec teams whom rely heavily upon options vs salary perform better AND send an important market signal...yeah there's value here!! I'm in!
4) relocate newco into already paid for lease space away from CVE interference/culture,cultivate renewed hope within analyst community.
4) Voila now CVE and newco finally have much needed optimism, CVE buys time for commodity pricing, retains ownership in conventional upside. I predict newco would significantly outperform CVE on all metrics save heavy RLI. COP probably has protected itself against this, but at this point CVE needs to start thinking outside the box