0). Fab 42 was PSO wet dream that x86 would win mobile and tablet. Reality check, PSO he who passed on Apples was fired and has since Intel lost billions and failed to ever make it in mobile or tablets. A strategic failure still haunting them today ! Without mobile F42 makes no sense
1). X86 volume continues to fall and by Intel 7nm the performance of the competitor ARMy will put a Xeon sever in a phone with all day battery life and Intel still has no presence in mobile beyond modem. And success there will be fleeting more below. So continued volume contraction is guaranteed.
2). Scaling will mean chips on 7nm will be one quarter the size of 14nm so quadruple output. Intel would need less than 1/3 of the current wafer starts. Means Ireland and Israel fabs will be gone and that they get no new nodes.
Intel gets huge cost and tax advantages overseas and they go poof as will margins unless big changes in tax structure come with Trumps short stay in office. Build the fab and new admin comes in and changes tax again and guess what ? Intel sitting with high cost American fab and bad tax structure!
3) sever volume is very small and can all be made in a small fab like D1c or D1x. 7 billion sounds like a lot but is actually still a small fab. As nodes have advanced and slowed the foundries and Chinese have scale and cost advantage as x86 isn't the driver of new products. Look at the announcement by the Far East and compare the scale. A 7 billion is a small niche fab and not competitive structurally compared o TSMC, Samsung giga fans or the many Chinese projects that will be there in that time frame
Thus at 7nm all that is happening is BK has decided to go USA and make positive press with Trump and put the only 7nm fab required in US and Israel and Ireland will wither away.
Will Intel compete competitively in modems, memory or AI or VR etc to add more volume ?The answer is no, read on.
On scaling advantage, Intel was late but first to 14, they will be late to 7nm compared to Samsung and TSMC. TSMC and Samsung offer far richer set of features for SoC and modems than Intel. Intel makes noise about great scaling but it is all paper advantages that x86 product guys had to accept. If Intel technology was so good how come nvidia or other real design that need leading edge silicon isn't at Intel? Because on paper looks good but s---s in real product but Intel x86 design had no choice. So little chance 7nm is different.
There is no reason intel can't do a better SoC chip but what pays the bills ? Severs and shrinking x86 need something different and the best people in design and process do that first. Ask anyone in LTD who gets the best people and priority and who fights for left overs. No change on 7nm
And lastly Intel structural is fat based on 30 years of x86 monopoly.
The only jobs are rotation of 22nm and 14nm folks to 7nm and Israel and Ireland hope a new admistration comes in four years and Intel will be doubly phucked with cost busted 7nm and more favorable tax of old.
Last thought .. BK is as bad as the auto manufacturer s---ing Trump C0CK. No other tech CEO would grovel to Trump, but Intel got the bozo from San Jose State. Must feel proud to work for that guy!
Much ado about nothing