The problem with Intel
Client CPU under pressure
Steep drop in unit volume from the 2012 peak of 343M units to estimated 232M units this year (Gartner estimate)
Caused by lack of innovation and "good enough" computing
Most common compute use cases are moving to mobile devices (social media, email, messaging, casual gaming, web browsing, photo, video, etc.)
PC-only use cases will continue to move to mobile devices (think of a dock where you dock your device into a large screen with keyboard)
Thin clients - login to a virtual machine hosted on a server. Now one server chip can serve several clients resulting in fewer chips sold.
Emerging markets (the previous PC growth driver) has completely left the PC market in favor of mobile devices. Intel used to break out geographic sales information in their earnings report. They no longer do this.
Public cloud
Private cloud is less efficient (lower utilization vs. public cloud). This is due to multiple customers sharing the same cloud resources leading to higher utilization.
One powerful cloud CPU can replace several private cloud CPUs
Mobile
Intel has given up on smartphones a 1+ billion unit revenue stream (and still growing in emerging markets)
5G is still unproven.
The carriers want the make the most out of their spectrum which is their golden goose. They will not allow inferior modems to waste spectrum. Good luck catching QCOM. 5G is extremely complex and requires decades of know-how.
Cost of process lead
Process development costs are increasing exponentially vs. Intel's revenue being flat since 2011
The foundries will catch Intel as they are able to invest mobile phone dollars into catching up with Intel
The economics have ended Moore's Law already
Server
Intel is leveraging the client to build server CPUs (converged core). This necessarily leads to sub-optimal designs as what is good for a client isn't necessarily good for a server. This opens up several competitive holes that the ARM hordes can go after
Accelerators will become increasingly important to the hyperscale datacenter such as Google and Facebook. Each have their own propreitary algorithms that they don't want to share. Intel cannot justify making different accelerator SKUs for each niche algorithm. FPGA is inherently less efficient than ASIC or on-die integration. Look for the Google and Facebook and other to explore custom CPU options. Google has already deployed a custom TPU ASIC for machine learning.
x86 Margins will collapse as AMD, POWER and ARM partners build server CPUs tailored to specific needs
IoT
IoT required two critical components. 1) Power efficient Compute 2) Connectivity. Intel is weak in both. They tried this is Atom mobile SOCs and failed and gave up after $11B down the drain.
IoT will be built from mobile SOC components. They are cheaper and have better developer support vs. Intel IoT
Intel is double counting traditional x86 sales as IoT sales (eg. Gas stations using x86 PCs for unit displays) to paint a rosy picture
Intel is also counting Wind River as IoT even though Wind River supports ARM, MIPS and POWER as a majority fraction of their revenue
Finally, IoT is an unproven market with dubious value propositions for many projects (Just look at internet-of-sh-- twitter account for some examples - or watch America's greatest makers)
Intel leadership
Intel is full of "lifers" that have never seen the outsides of their battleship gray cubicles. They have failed in every endeavor outside of their x86 CPU core compentency
Meego / Nokia partnership
Atom mobile SOCs
SoFIA
Mica bracelet
Basis watch
Drones
Mcafee (no synergy with core business - distracing to employees and management)
$10B down the drain on comms companies during the Craig Barrett dotcom days
Intel TV
There are many more - check the earlier thread on this
Intel outsiders that are brought in are destroyed by the Intel culture which opposes change
Mike Bell could not gain any traction
Hermann Eul could not lead mobile
Aicha Evans has failed but for some inexplicable reason has decided to stay (probably lots of $$$)
Erik Huggers aborted Intel TV
Murthy R. is the latest guy meant to save Intel. Best of luck to him!
Why does Intel fail to change?
Change is hard when people's careers and livelihood are dependent on the old ways. You need to destroy the culture and install a new one. This is rare.
The whining and complainers on this board are symptom of the problem
Decades of monopoly pricing have left the employees with a false sense of what is "right" in the market. There is still too much arrogance, complacency and outright reality-distortion in this company.
Plan your careers accordingly.