Manager knows the reason why you were given VSP. The VSP criteria was posted in this forum last week. Pay attention to what the manager says regarding your VSP or ERP. If they sound negative or you feel you are being encouraged to take it - then take it, the company wants you out. You may be getting ISP next year. If they sound positive and you feel you are being encouraged to stay then you are in luck, the company wants.
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I am hoping there isn't an exit interviews.
You need to ask that question at your outgoing interview.