If you read the posts here you'd think Intel will start posting losses next quarter. PCs are in decline but won't disappear anytime soon as businesses cannot live them and they are still devices of choice for students and researchers. Chromebooks still rely predominantly on Intel despite not needing any of the backwards compatibility. Servers are exceedingly complex and while ARM may make inroads slowly this is a rapidly growing market so Intel's revenue here not likely to decline soon. I also don't buy the 5g and IOT kool-aid but even without those Intel has easily six to eight good years even if they fail at everything else. So much doom and gloom here you'd think 7nm TSMC ARM servers are around the corner. Chill.
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Indeed the end is as close as the yield on 10nm
Because it sucks and the end is near.
Agree with -1chf
Problem isn't the markets. It is the management ! It is the poor management with a history of poor decisions and wayward direction that is worrying people.
Intel glory days are over, it's down fall started way back in 2002. It's now staring down the precipice.
Intel could have ruled the world but sadly they chose CRB, PSO, and BK and with each successive CEO the strategy and vision deteriorated commensurately with their intelligence.
Think of intel of the late 90sand had they set for word domination. Used the billions in profit and expanded their silicon empire into ARM, modems and memory ? Instead of shutting old generations kept them making true foundry? You'd have TSMC and Samsung as non players and all their revenue in Intel's pocket and be making x86 servers as well as all the leading edge ARM silicon and higher end modems
From the another thread: @HXZqYX6
OP: here am I... I'll f.uck/stuck INTEL (taking INTEL monies and making Intel Inside chaos), until INTEL bleeds last $$ USD, in desperate attempt to survive. Understand? Who am I, OP?
whoami: root.Linux@ARM
"Great companies like Intel are created by positive thinking.. So you are all losers here and deserves to be fired."
"good riddance.. BK only wants those who BELIEVE in the company.. if you don't believe, you shouldn't be there.. PEACE OUT"
LOL so happy I am out and why the ship is dead!!
that's the spirit @1nrh , now that we've gotten rid of all those nasty OWG that delivered the last 15 or 20 process generations we need forward thinking kids like you to #MAKEINTELGREATAGAIN
say OP, how long have you worked at Intel?
"Great companies like Intel"...Circa 1996.
Great companies like Intel are created by positive thinking.. So you are all losers here and deserves to be fired.
Ok let's take the strongest sector of Intel -Servers. Let's say wall st expects 15% yoy growth. Let's say Intel does post 9% growth - pretty good growth. What's going to happen? More bonuses or more layoffs? My bet is more layoffs due to investor pressure since they don't see the expected growth. It's more like our focal talk by manager- "you did very well. But I only give you a successful because you didn't do as well (as I expected you to)"
@1ree- I have a bridge for sale if you are interested?
The PC client is under siege. Apple is moving up the stack in terms of compute capability. iOS is a very short step away from doing away with Windows. Check out the rapid progression of iPad capability and then marry this with a docking station to a monitor and keyboard.
Android is doing the same. Have you seen the $80 chromebooks running on ARM? Do you think ARM will stand still on power and performance? Ditto for server.
What is driving this are the mobile processor volumes at TSMC and Samsung. They will pass Intel in process technology which will allow the ARM vendors to field BETTER processors vs. Intel. The software infrastructure and developers have already abandoned Windows and now develop for iOS and Android. Intel's last bastion is the datacenter. However, even that market will be under siege due to the process advantage via TSMC/Samsung.
Revenues are flat at best and volumes are declining.
This does not bode well for investing in leading edge nodes.
When Moore's Law ends, fab tech will become commodity as the last nodes will become fully depreciated.
Those of you who can't connect the dots are still at Intel - no wonder.
good riddance.. BK only wants those who BELIEVE in the company.. if you don't believe, you shouldn't be there.. PEACE OUT
""It was a one trick pony and died, is intel more IBM or a one trick pony?"
BK is no Gerstner (nor is Murthy or Diane Bryant or any of the rest)... that's all you need to know."
Under John Akers a life long IBMer he did a big restructure and did the unspeakable and laid of huge numbers. In the end he failed and a senior board member successfully brought in an outsider that was brilliant and objective and successfully execute a new strategy that had IBM survive another couple decades, no small feet. BTW Akers was a Yale graduate.
In BK we got the best from San Jose State, LOL. A long time and only one company experienced person, just like Akers, but not nearly as smart nor even close to the same polish. He is now following the same script with layoffs and restructures, but is too stupid to figure out how to do it himself so he had to bring an outsider in. That says one big difference in capability.
Akers failed at IBM, and BK will fail at Intel, his strategy is flawed, his intelligence is marginal, and Intel's situation is far more grave than IBMs ever was.
The larger and sadder issue like Kodak, DEC, SUN, Compaq, and a laundry list of former technology heavyweights the board of Intel has no great and independent board member that can drive the right overthrow that is required at Intel.
When I saw all the pomp about the CEO search and I saw the selection of BK and Renee it was one of the saddest days of my intel career as I knew than that our future was gone.
Revenue is not growing and will not under the current regime who couldn't punch their way out of a paper bag. Intel should have closer to 50k employees WW and will do so by 2020 in order to justify their stock price. No one wanted X86 in their phones or tablets so why would anyone think they would with IOT? They are betting that their server market share does not decline but just like back in 2006, arrogance will be the demise of Intel along with ignorance.
Lots of angry ex Intel laid off employees here.
"It was a one trick pony and died, is intel more IBM or a one trick pony?"
BK is no Gerstner (nor is Murthy or Diane Bryant or any of the rest)... that's all you need to know.
Intel is in a vicious cycle, one down down to the bottom of the sea.
Google, FB, MS, Amazon are tired of having to buy 1000+ chips that can be bought in other architectures for cheap. Let's be serious intel could sell the same CPU to a laptop for 100 bucks but charge cloud providers 10x the price. They see that and say WTF, and soon they will go to TSMC.
China has mission to bring all technology to China so for sure non x86 is the priority.
Many foundry about making the lowest cost best technology and selling at a fixed mark up. Intel is about selling at the highest possible price and their cost rise to the level they can sell. Multiple decades of fat monopoly have made all in intel fat an unable to change or compete. They simply to big and slow to change as quickly as they need to. Of course big fat executives will spin great story and tell good lie about how things are better and they got a plan. Smart engineer who know their %hit should easily see the BS from BK and others and know the real situation!
Moral of the story, everyone else is cheaper and more efficient than Intel, and thus will eat intel soon. Is Intel ready for the fight, based on what I see in TMG and divisions no f**king way, LOL
Intel may be in vicious cycle. Intel right now is around the volume which makes 10nm process profitable at levels Intel used to have. If PC declines faster than combined grow of iot and servers than ... huston we have a problem, as all new designs are probably in 10nm.... So current results are ok, Intel is fighting for its future. One must remember that cancelation of mobile SoC casued volume drop and modem for Apple is manufactured by TSMC. Now to answer your quistion : why so many negative opinions... Because top management as every politition "when not lieing steals candies from children". Do you like polititions even if the are smart?
Was just thinking about this in another thread... LOL
Apple is one OS recompile away from making the whole PC line from top to bottom ARM. But they get such good special deals from intel, they keep giving it to BK who goes to Tim and gets on his knees and bends over backwards as well. It is such a good service that Intel gives the fruit company, but they are really only one product and one process slip up from where no matter what BK does Apple may just go to ARM.
Imagine that say 10nm is late by a year and half, TSMC 10 and 7nm come in on time, and the ARM continues to see performance/power benefits. Imagine the whole macbook line moving to ARM! Already you have all the major design houses sampling cores on TSMC latest generation, if the power and performance continue to improve, nobody cares really if TSMC 7 is like intel 10nm. What matters to the product folks is they see two more generations of improvement that will make the ramp of of ARM performance to power to area to cost ( PPAC ) so compelling that the will move the whole line and then be more competitive to any x86 vendor!
Just like Apple moved from 6800 to PowerPc to x86 because each time the supplier of the silicon stalled in process development. The situation is becoming real again as x86 process improvement is stalling for the same reason it did at Moto and IBM, not enough volume to justify the R&D and not enough inertia to drive the schedule.
Indeed the Macs will go to ARM and then the Mac line will beat the x86 line that everyone else has running windows, that will slowly drive Apple MS up and up..
Scary times for Intel....
It isn't TSMC servers you need to worry about, it is that fact that TSMC and Samsung now have volumes for their smartphone that exceed 300 million per year.
It is because everything that computes these days does so WITH OUT intel inside. I remember when we used to say if it computes it computes best with Intel inside.
These days if x86 was to disappear the world wouldn't lose a beat. This is the same situation that IBM mainframes and DEC minicomputers used to occupy. One of those companies is still around doing something else but still struggling as it has never recovered, well the other is dead/gone/finished. It was a one trick pony and died, is intel more IBM or a one trick pony?
There's doom and gloom because the culture that made Intel great is utterly broken and there aren't leaders in the company who have the vision or skills to guide Intel into the future.
+uao : fully agree.
So who will be the new CEO? I do not think BK will survive @ Intel in 2017.
I wonder when the BOD will be replaced. I would start with AB going home and BK to follow.
The future for Intel would be for a smaller operation.
Yes and No
1) Intel lives and dies with Moore's Law, it generates little new product revenue from older nodes. Every new product is on some new node, 10nm, this hybrid 22/14 for IoT, and modified 14nm for Modems.
Lets be honest Moore's Law has run the course, no exponential doubling can continue forever. You talk to BK or any senior technologist and none have the courage to talk about how the company positions for this. If Moore's Law had / was continuing we'd see the density doubling, performance 30% and all the power benefits that come with it, it hasn't. When management can't face fate and acts like an ostrich what can you say about the future.
2) PC is continuing to decline, I predict the natural bottom is about 200 million as they are so well build that and can last so long many people need on every 5 years or so. Phones that is a different story...
With 200 million units plus a few million servers, simply not enough volume to justify 3 small factories across the globe. Intel's manufacturing model of huge volumes to amortize the development, one yield learning vehicle that all the servers draft is falling apart. TSMC and Samsung have much larger volumes for their launch Aps processors, guess who can fund the capacity, the R&D and have to push the silicon harder. Guess who is in the lead now. So not only doesn't Intel not admit Moore's Law has ended they haven't made any of the structural changes required to adjust to the new world order.
3) Products: lets be hones Intel is a one trick pony beond x86 have never done anything well. Look all the innovation in x86 was external competition driven from Cyrix, AMD, RISC etc... anything internal like Tejas or Itanium look at the results. When you have an insular and arrogant with no external sensitivity it is impossible to understand and make course correction. Murthy and his team of execcs from outside are a start, but BK has no clue at product, and there aren't enough people below VP here that know how to do anything but the old Intel way. A VP yelling for change but rowers who don't understand will result in continued product slips and misses.
Then I laugh lastly at the IoT and 5G, and memory, really... that says enough.
If 10nm comes in early 2017 no issue, if 10nm comes in late 2017 or 2018 like it appears to be trending very very very bad, I see another big headcount in Q3 and another in Q2 of next year by the new CEO