Anonymous140332, Why do you think I'm bitter? My income has been pretty constant. Seems to me your QCOM stock comp took a beating the last few weeks...
24 replies (most recent on top)
Anonymous140330,
It won't matter where you live. Any tech slowdown, and you're a tech worker, you'll be impacted. You're naive if you think otherwise. That is unless you aren't a tech worker, and are just troll this section.
Anonymous140332, I'd say it's pretty accurate bitter renter
@Anonymous140327, wow you make so many assumptions about people's financial situation and goals. You sound like that bitter landlord
@Anonymous140327, you lost me at CA and SFH. That's a combo I don't want. Not everybody views CA so favorably. Lots of places to live in this world. Not all are high tax overregulated boom bust like CA. I'm hoping for a crash not for the sake of affordability, but to wipe out all the nonsensical tech speculation. Look at, oh, Blue Apron, or Jessica Alba's diaper service, and their unicorn valuations. The Fed has failed and its propped up circus tent economy will fall. By all means, buy the tent and flip it.
In other words young people, I wouldn't be wishing for a tech crash. You aren't on as solid financial footing as you think you are, and there as a lot of the rest of us that have already had time and opportunity to build a much more solid financial foundation. Any sort of "crash", there's a high probability you will be hit first, on what I call the economic pecking order. And the ones taking advantage of any economic calamity are always the more financially strong ones, in like every other crash.. What makes you think if you have a tech crash, and that is large enough to impact house prices, that you would be in a financial position to take advantage of it if you yourself depend on the the economic benefits of that the tech bubble has thus far created for you?
Anonymous140250, 30ish... And thanks for proving my point. Now that your around 24, you still won't be able to afford a primary SFH in most of California regardless of where you go, unless you (1) buy in tier 2 or tier 3 market or (2) have a dual income household or (3) were lucky and hit it big on the stock option/RSU pool (and by mean big, I mean at least $1million like some of us older timers had the opportunity...My understanding is those RSU/stock grants aren't nearly as generous for you later young people as they were for us....) You still won't be able to afford most of CA in tier 1 even with a 40-50% correction that you are hoping for...Which explains why you're hoping for it ..Hope.....And the reason is pretty simple. You were born when a lot of the wealth building tools that were previously available to older folks have long be closed...For example, you can thank a few companies that got in trouble with option backdating and you can thank the IRS and the government for clamping down on valuing stock options grants to regular people. That's why you get RSU's now instead of stock options....Just like you can blame the last 8 years administration on closing some of the loopholes in real estate that were available to us to help us build wealth faster, but won't be available to you. So short of getting lucky at a company like the next Facebook or Google , you're pretty much...well screwed... if you stay in CA...And you haven't seen nothing yet when tech does get into a recession. The bay area will take a hit much worse than anywhere else, particularly the younger folks that have little/no wealth, little/no assets, who were counting on those stock grants to make them whole. When tech takes a big hit, people who haven't already "made it" in the Bay Area are the ones that usually wash out and relocate elsewhere because while people's job/salary takes a hit, the cost of living doesn't comparable come down as fast, so it's much tougher to survive up there if you aren't already financially stable. Reminds me when I was in the Bay Area dropping off my car for service and on the way of taking the shuttle hope, this guy in that younger than me told me he was unemployed for 6 months and could no longer to afford to make his payments on his very expensive german car.... Easy come, easy go..
@Anonymous140218, i was 15 in 2006. How old were you? 53?
Didn't say I was smarter. Just said I'd be buying some puts for fun. "Everything" referred to all of tech (via QQQ as proxy), not all my investments. If anybody was "that good" they wouldn't be working at QC, or posting to QC investments.mail.
...because if you really were that good, you wouldn't be an small time gambler...You would be working or owning a hedge fund. I don't see too many daytraders that live west of 5 in a SFH that is over $1million..Just saying....
Anonymous140215, Go ahead and do that. You might get lucky. Then again, if you're wrong...You're going to be wiped out. And then you definitely will be renting for a long long time...Me personally, I'll play it safe and not try to think I'm smarter than the market. 90% of you aren't if you keep playing...You will lose...
In otherwords, if you weren't financially prepared to take advantage of the housing crash of 2006 because you were financially handicapped then, there's a high probability that if there is a correction in the coming month/years, you're going to be in the same financial situation that will prevent you from taking advantage of the correction that might happen..Because if that weren't the case, you would have already taken advantage of the bigger crash that happened in 2006....But I'm guessing most of you didn't.That's why you are hoping that in some way, this time it will be different to allow you to...I'm afraid you won't. Because there are bigger hawks waiting to pounce long before you will be able to. If tried to buy good REOs or short sales during the last crash, you would have experienced that. You would have met plenty of competition from Blackrock and other institutional buyers and a lot of seasoned RE professionals buying on a frenzy.
Bull trap next couple weeks, then short everything? Maybe some QQQ puts for fun. Hopefully NASDAQ touches 3900 within 6 months. 3300 would be dream come true. Watch the buybacks dry up as price falls, against all logic. Buybacks peak at market tops it seems.
Anonymous140049,
If you actually tried to take out a mortgage over the past few years since the housing crash, you would have realized that even to borrow/refi a small $300k loan on a verifiable W2 income with an 800+ credit score, you had to jump through a lot of hoops to qualify. That said, with credit available for banks to loan, the loan requirements for such loans were so stringent only a small percentage of the population were able to take advantage of it. So for the past few years since the housing crash, the only buyers were ones that met the stringent requirements OR those that paid cash....These people will be the last that will be falling on hard times. Everyone else will eat shit well before they people do. This is the same thing that happens over and over again during every market "correction". Even in housing. When housing crashed, the areas that crashed 40-50% were the tier 2 and tier 3 locations (like Chula Vista, Oceanside,etc)...You didn't get a 40-50% correction in general on the west side of I-5, as much as we all had hoped we would get...Same thing will happen again... You aren't going to get a big discount in those same areas until the rest of the house crashes bigtime..And if that were to happen, you're personal wealth would have long been obliterated well before some of these other folks for you to be able take advantage of the situation...Just like many of you were locked out of the housing market right after the crash. The only ones buying after the housing crash were the wealthier ones that were able to weather the storm longer than the majority of the rest of you.... And if any sort of correction happens again, that will be the same case. And there's plenty of people that can weather that storm pretty well :)
Timbbbbbbeeeeerrrrrrrrr!!!!!
Rice, beans, and bullets
Game over. Recession on the way. Food and rent, not smart phones.
Anonymous139889, bubbles are not predicated on subprime lending. Commodities didn't just crash because there were subprime borrowers of palladium. Bubbles are due to excess credit fueling speculation well past what the fundamentals dictate. Housing is no different. Excess credit created speculation, which CAUSED the subprime lending to begin with. So you got cause and effect mixed up. The all out speculation may not be there this time around (aside from EZ money bay area), as even smart money investors have stopped buying up rental properties. But buying at any price just to launder money out of China is no longer tied to fundamentals. Nor is price appreciation due to ZIRP for 6 straight years.
Zeitgeist unfolding in front of our eyes. We live in interesting times.
good excuse for earnings miss for all semi companies. CEO: "China, dawg". Analyst: "I'm sorry, did you just say 'China, dawg'?". CEO: "That's correct. $hit just got cray cray fo realz. Yuan-na know why?".
No way man..they are already bring back subprime lending., just like what happened right after 9/11 dot com crash...it won't crash until the majority of new buyers are subprime, which currently is not the case. But by that time, subprime idiots will have already bid up prices even further. After all, when lending requirements are relaxed there's no moron hazard from subprime borrowers to borrow more than they can choose. Why do people think this time will be different from any other time when housing crashed? It was never home prices themselves. It was always the quality of the borrowers.
But as a landlord that has tenants on month to month th, it would be best to raise rent prices right now. After all, no one wants to move and sign a new lease right before a layoff. Since they would be responsible for the remaining term or the lease and any lease break fee on a new lease. And once someone is impacted, they will be spending more time looking for a job than looking for a new place to live. Also no one else will want to sign one up for a new lease when that people is unemployed. And that person will pay the new rent price, otherwise you would dig them on their credit, which would make it difficult for them to clear some background checks and relocate to a new place and rent at a new place.
Whole world market collapsing not just US market, eventually everyone will be affected
I hope so.
Very scary, scenario changing very fast