Not very likely. Networks are getting flatter, phones are getting cheaper, all the pressures are downward. Flat LTE networks, including VoLTE leave very little royalties for Q, unlike CDMA there are workarounds for most of Q's OFDM portfolio and no one wanted Q's in house VoLTE solutions because of the cost. Qualcomm isn't going away overnight, but they have crested. Their relevant IP is shrinking and they have more competition in a market that is increasingly a commodity. Who is going to get squeezed to make up the difference? We all know, despite the cheerleaders banding about IOT and 5G, Q is all about the 3g the way Moto was about AMPS. Q will have to reduce price to maintain market share. How long before all of the US QCT presence in W and WT and AQ and those new buildings are for rent? I'm being sooner than you think.
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It's not that far...next 18 months will be a very interesting ride.
Damn you all for being right. Why can't you all be running the great Q instead of SM. I came here cause QC was the powerhouse in wireless. How long before we're the next Nokia, hocking every division until we find our way.
Why not? If it keep fair licensing and not use it for anti-competitive purposes.
Recycling old threads again?
Infrastructure wasn't designed to make money, it was designed to drive the market in the direction Qualcomm wanted, which it did. It could have been made profitable but no real every was made to do so. In the end what doomed it was the value of the invested stock options that could be returned prior to the China deal and stock price boom. But the lesson about it for today is how the company did it, the lies, maneuvering, executive changes and small restructuring, cherry picking of connected employees to set the stage for the only large scale divesture to date. The exact same pre divestiture maneuvering is going on right now. I think if we are all honest we see the writing on the walk. Omnitracs funded CDMA, CDMA resulted in a lot of IP that funded silicon, but that's stating to go downhill for a lot of reasons, and nothing is there to replace it. Globalstar, MediaFlo, and a dozen other projects from digital theater to displays have not been big gainers to keep it going and Q has billions but no place to hang their hat for the next rodeo. It was a great ride while it lasted, but it is all downhill from here. Granted, I could be wrong, I've been wrong before, so someone tell me as royalties drop from 10% of $600 phones to 3% of $200 phones, where is the difference going to be made up? Because if it's not the 6 billion being spent on development will be 3 billion in a couple years, and where does that leave the young ones? Especially in SD where it's slim outside the Q?
QC never made money in infrastructure. So abandoning that division was a no brainer since it was always money losing. A more accurate comparison was QC's handset business. It did generate pretty good returns for some time, simply because back then QC was one of the first ones on the market. (I still have my original qcp-1900, which by today stands literally is a brick). But QC jettisoned that division as soon as its profitability started to deteriorate. And it always happens a lot quicker than people expect it to be. QC does have time with the latest chip/platform offering since, it still has a pretty decent lead if we're talking about high end. The issue is high end has started to saturate, and low end margins will be under pressure from the likes of MediaTek, Spreadtrum, and every other Chinese low cost player. Add now Samsung into the mix too as a chip supplier, and Intel that doesn't have a problem throwing more money at the problem.
Motorola was much more than just a handset provider at one time they were the number one IP holder in wireless communications. Q copied them a lot in the early days, including poaching their engineers and even copying their stupid moves, like iridium. There probably is 10 years of 2g and 3G revenue left but it is declining and that decline is accelerating. 4G LTE flat networks reduce Qualcomm's patents from about 280 per device for aCDMA enabled one to about 30, most centered around CA. Out of those 30 there's probably 10 that the court would throw out easily and there's several others that have work arounds, and all can be pushed aside if they get to expensive, especially in China. You can find all the patents on Agile BTW. Royalties are based on a handset price and the market is saturated and low end devices are the only ones with Q chips gaining market share. Royalties per device are dropping, in a flat LTE market they will be half of what they are today at best. market share is dropping. handset prices are dropping. If you are an engineer in your 20's or 30's in SD, you only need to look back at infrastructure division to see your future, and like then the cheerleaders will be out in full force prior to the butchering making noise to keep the stock prices up. The company is already positioning for major cuts down the road. Don't believe it? Ask around and open your eyes.
Mot was always a handset maker first and foremost...they failed selling handsets, and that die was cast in 1995 if not earlier thanks to Weisshappel/Galvin. There's at least 10 years of 3G/4G gravy train left, with or without QCT's help. OEMs can try workarounds to 4G SEP, but in the meantime, better keep paying that royalty rent to avoid eviction from the marketplace. Where do you get that flat LTE gives little royalties? Some citation would be greatly appreciated. It's not obvious.