There is clearly much concern in the organization and unfortunately this site has been sorely lacking in any rational analysis. Don't get me wrong, I really enjoy the sniping, childish behavior here as it is the truest reflection of the real Target culture. That said, let's do an honest analysis of what the next year and beyond holds.
Next 6 months: The TTS reckoning is at hand. Conspicuously absent from the March decision was TTS impacts. This was not an oversight. With McNamara not even at his desk yet, the decision was made not to cut him off at the knees before he even officially starts. He has been given a target and the expectation is that he will meet the reduction within the next six months. Expect deep cuts in Infrastructure, PMO, and roles that include process and management.
Next 12 months: COE, the new proving grounds. COE is the acid test for the new performance based staffing model. For those most familiar with the Midwest market, think Best Buy. Over the course of this year the mechanics will be put in place to institute the turn and burn model where the bottom 5-10% of employees will be relieved of their service annually. If you are currently in a COE, find your niche, carve it deep. Those who haven't demonstrated themselves as an SME will be let go next March, sans severance due to performance reasons.
Next 12 months: Corporate Administration, the clan based model that has evolved to fiefdoms. At the end of the day, Target is a retailer, just like countless other retailers. As such, they perform the same 5 functions as every other purveyor of someone else's goods. They BUY product, MOVE it to warehouses/outlets, MARKET it to the masses where they SELL it at stores/online and they then need to OPERATE this business. Where Target differs from EVERY other retailer is that they choose to add complexity to the model by treating these functions as separate business entities. Think for a moment of the redundancies associated with having a Merchandise Finance, Distribution Finance, TTS Finance, etc. structure. Now multiply that by pyramid, by function including HR, TTS, etc. The cross redundancies will make your head spin nearly as fast as the cash going down the drain. This change obviously doesn't happen overnight and it needs a little grease to get the wheels moving; hence the demotion of most management in these functions to individual contributor roles. Where attrition does not spotlight the unnecessary roles, the analysis of the Operating Model will. Expect the results of this analysis to be complete and executed in March of next year. Again, if you have something to own, own it hard and certainly don't cede it to somebody you previously reported to.
Long Term: The captain's helm. This has the most disturbing implications. The one thing that is a certainty is that your current CEO is operating on an interim basis. Let's first examine the case of Bob DeRhodes. He was brought in as an interim CIO because the organization desired someone who brought industry experience to justify the hard decisions without having to worry about jeopardizing relationships with those he would have to work with going forward. Now, look next to the communications. It wasn't widely aware outside of TTS that his role was interim. The CEO impacts all, so the shadow of the intentions of the CEO role should be cast upon all. Sound familiar? Now let's examine Cornell's history. Safeway, Walmart, Sam's Club, PepsiCo. Search his name and those companies and all you will find is a wake of destruction in his path. Restructures, layoffs, expense optimization; he's a hatchet man, plain and simple. Coincidence? The board has a clearly demonstrated their M.O. So what does this mean for the future? The path has been cleared. Ladies and gentleman, I'd like to introduce you to your new CEO. Kathee Tesija. She positioned herself for this role the moment she pulled the end around to the board on Gregg, and kudos to her for a move well timed and played. His professional stock was sinking and she seized the jugular. Think I'm wrong? Why did Cornell position her as a "new" member of the team at the analyst presentation to the street? Do you honestly believe the myopia, but more importantly, hubris, of this organization would ever let an “outsider” dictate its future? Entitlement and nepotism are core competencies. In the end, for all of the Target lifer's uncomfortable with the current change, rest assured; in ten years, this company will be exactly where it was 1 year ago.
Consider this the prologue to the Harvard Business Review article that will surely be published within 3 years. The only question? Will it be renaissance tale or an obituary?