When we began we-ponizing the PIP in 2021 to reduce headcount your chances were essentially nil, and everybody I knew took the PIL.
Since then the percentage of people being put into NSI has dropped, and my impression from the outside is most places are making the PIP extremely easy to pass. Most groups don’t have anybody retired in place or slackers hiding in the cracks, and managers don’t want to lose a member of the team when our absurd hiring policies wouldn’t allow you to replace them within a year unless you’re lucky. So I’ve heard of managers hinting during the discussion of how easy it’s going to be, stuff like show up to work by this time, etc. And then for what it’s worth, I don’t even recall anybody I work with “unexpectedly leaving” in the August time frame last year, so I think what I’ve heard is correct.