Prediction for the RVBD End game: Vector Capital cuts down to the bone to be profitable. Lots of layoffs, elimination of everything nonessential. There is still a good bit of revenue to be had for a while from SH /NPM renewals and continued sales to the Fed (although one wonders how a MAGA led shutdown will affect Fed Revenue but I digress) . VC then sells what’s left to a “Cisco” or “Broadcom” type of company and RVBD ends up as a small division with a very small team keeping enough revenue coming in to please the corporate masters. And that’s the end of RVBD. Every company has a life cycle. This is where RVBD is headed.
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Hey, as someone who left the company a year ago after being there a good long time, I just want to say to anyone still there that this cr-p isn’t your fault. You all worked hard and management screwed you. You deserve better than sitting and wondering what the end game is. I respect you if you’re in a good place personally or just want to stay and support your colleagues but I have to say it’s better outside Riverbed than inside.
Either way though I hope you all are in a good place in the new year and all this talk about end games can just be entertaining and not stress you out.
The Illusio piece may still be interesting to a Broadcom type place. SH may go to a legacy player that serves governments etc... If our tanks and g-ns are 60 years old, so can the WANOP boxes!
My take is that SH will be kept on oxygen to harvest renewals and keep trimming the team down while revenues decrease. In the meantime, polish Alluvio to a shine, enough to make it appealing for purchase. Vector gets their return, Cxx get their bonus, everybody else gets the glory.
The history of Vector is not a good sign. They are looking to cash out at least 2x of what they paid. There is not much left on the carcass as the SH line disappears and is replaced by some other vendor. Broadcom looks for leaders in a market that can be cash-cowed. That was RB back in 2015-2020 when we missed a bunch of opportunities to move to SD-WAN.
Hahaha.
You are likely correct! After they are done with these layoffs there won’t be any bacon on this pig.
Some of the key engineers and people who knew how to get things done are gone or soon to be. When I said “Cisco type” … let me rephrase that to the “bargain basement version of Cisco” Not sure who that would be.
Vector likes to boast that they successfully sell or IPO their “investments”. RVBD may be the exception to that. After the cheap severance package they handed out…. They deserve to lose their shirts.
You’re flattering yourself if anyone thinks a Cisco/Broadcomm type will chomp at this bit.
This pig has no bacon worth going for.