Thread regarding Intel Corp. layoffs

Cash is King

Cash is king. It doesn't lie. Earnings are easily manipulated (like Intel recently changing the depreciation life of fab equipment).

Cash generated from Operations, less plant investments = - $12 Billion. Let that sink in.
So far this year, Intel generated $1B in operating cash. (Same period last year was $6.7B). So far this year, Intel spent $13B on investing in property, plant and equipment. About the same as last year.

Intel is going broke at an alarming rate. The layoffs will continue (20,000 more to go). If the IFS doesn't ramp and/or the PC business doesn't recover fast enough, the company will need to raise more cash from the debt markets. Downgrades will ensue and the entire IFS 'moonshot' will be called into question. This will take 2-3 quarters to play out but, things will get very very ugly.

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| 3275 views | | 18 replies (last August 6, 2023) | Reply
Post ID: @OP+1nTwJNP2

18 replies (most recent on top)

What happens when Intel credit rating drops again? Will it be able to issue more debt? How much will Intel have to pay?

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Post ID: @5bpy+1nTwJNP2

So far this year, Intel has generated -$3 / share of cash...

I guess Intel is thinking if they expand the fabs at an alarming rate, they can make up the big loss by increasing volume...

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Post ID: @2vix+1nTwJNP2

Is it true Intel doesn't even have EUV yet? I tried to decode the new Intel node naming and compare to AMD parts. It's shocking because you can get a lot better deal on AMD Ryzen compared to Intel parts.

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Post ID: @2hiz+1nTwJNP2

I don't think the @Op says to rely on Asian foundries. You must have slipped and posted here accidently.

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Post ID: @1tdg+1nTwJNP2

Yes agreed with OP. Intel is too late to invest and should sell fabs to Asian chip makers for free. We should ABSOLUTELY rely on Asia for chipmaking. Rumor is TD folks can't wait to work for Asian chip makers with half salary, double hours and lovely wlb. Genius bigly.

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Post ID: @1eee+1nTwJNP2

Who cares what the @Op is... engineer finance marketing or even an inside executive at the company...

The numbers don't lie, as the @Op says. This company is bleeding cash.

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Post ID: @1hxo+1nTwJNP2

@ggf: Leaving finance to people with a "clue" produces the $2B "tax benefit" hat rabbit on the income statement that makes things look like they are in the black when in fact they are nowhere close.

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Post ID: @kuh+1nTwJNP2

Intel is in some serious weeds here... Demand for PCs are down, right at the point where Intel is still 2-3 years behind on process technology.

The OEMs are still trying to unload PCs from gen 11 and gen 12. The inventory glut is real. Meanwhile, AMD processor based machines are a better value.

Maybe this IFS strategy would have worked back ten years ago. Instead of wasting $50 Billion on acquisitions that were shut down or spun out for a loss, the transition could have started then. Or maybe, Instead of Intel being so pig headed and fighting EUV they could have admitted what everyone already knew... you must have EUV for Moore's law.

It's all behind us now, but we can see the problem -- Intel doesn't have the cash and time needed for the IFS gamble. Even if it could close the gap in cost, culture, tools and process.

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Post ID: @tvc+1nTwJNP2

In the mathematical analysis department I’d put my trust in engineers way before some finance geek.

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Post ID: @wbz+1nTwJNP2

@Op has got to the heart of the matter. Intel revenue is down. Intel gross margin is down even further.

There simply isn't enough cash margin dollars being generated to fund the IFS fab expansion plans.

If you thumbs down, that's great, but you might want to form an argument that counters what the Op is saying. So far, I don't find a thing wrong with that analysis.

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Post ID: @xwd+1nTwJNP2

Another way to look at the cash story:

Intel: Q2 revenue ~$13B, long-term debt ~$54B (4x revenue)
AMD: Q2 revenue ~$5B, long-term debt ~$5B (1x revenue)

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Post ID: @ety+1nTwJNP2

OP, don’t quit your day job and leave finance to the people that have a clue.

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Post ID: @ggf+1nTwJNP2

Wow, so many downvotes @op post. Seems like people dont like to hear the truth

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Post ID: @gpr+1nTwJNP2

Q2 actually saw a bit of an improvement over recent Qs as far as the cash management picture goes. The ops generated ~$3B in Q2 (compared to net $2B loss in Q1), more importantly only about the same amount ($3B) was sunk into the company's current love affair with concrete vs $8.5B (all from the borrowing) in Q1. Perhaps, the BOD gave someone a slap on the wrist, or perhaps it's just a coincidence. We may find out in Q3.

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Post ID: @ade+1nTwJNP2

Seems to have touched a nerve. What's the counter argument? Just asking.

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Post ID: @cgy+1nTwJNP2

The truth is ugly. Lots of HR and koolaid drinkers down votes LOL

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Post ID: @hdo+1nTwJNP2

You are more than welcome to kiss my A-s-s with this sh-i-Ty analysis. If you r not happy leave.

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Post ID: @lyx+1nTwJNP2

Solid assessment and well articulated. Couldn’t agree more.

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Post ID: @uzq+1nTwJNP2

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