***02/09/2023:
*TDS has a market cap of $1.23B
*USM has a market cap of $1.73B
*TDS owns 82% of USM. 82% of USM = $1.42B
*With TDS you are getting a 13% discount on USM Shares plus the dividend plus the telco and broadband businesses for free versus buying USM Shares straight up.
*Dish, Verizon, T-Mobile, AT&T, American Tower, Crown Castle, SBA Communications, and a Plethora of Private Equity Firms have eyes on TDS/USM Assets.
***US Cellular holds some very high demand assets:
Subscribers:
*4.3M Postpaid Subscribers at $50 ARPU with 1.4% Churn, 493K Prepaid Subscribers at $30 ARPU
*TMUS Market Cap per Postpaid Subscriber is $1800, ATT and Verizon are approximately $2000 but they have many other lines of business beyond what TMUS has.
*Verizon/TracFone Acquisition $340 per Sub, $28 ARPU, 5% Churn
*Private Equity/Consumer Cellular $500 per Sub, $30 ARPU, 2% Churn
*4.3M Postpaid Subscribers at $850 per = $3.6B (Heavily Discounting beyond TMUS / TracFone / Consumer Cellular Valuations)
*493K Prepaid Subscribers at $300 per = $150M
Cell Towers:
*4329 Cell Towers. Many Tower Acquisitions in recent years, $400K per give or take
At $300K per Tower $1.3B (20% Discount)
Spectrum:
*Spectrum Licenses, on the books at $4.7B Discount 50% = $2.35B
Los Angeles Partnership:
*Los Angeles Partnership with Verizon $160M in Revenue for 2022 Heavily Discounting to $400M
Debt:
Stacked up against US Cellular’s Net Debt of $3.1B
Postpaid Subscriber Base $3.6B
Prepaid Subscriber Base $100M
Towers $1.3B
Spectrum $2.35B
Los Angeles Partnership $400M
Total Assets $7.8B
Total Net Debt $3.1B
82% of US Cellular Heavily Discounted Asset Value less Debt $4.65B = $3.8B, $33 per Share
So with TDS and massively discounting the USM assets you arrive at $33 per Share for TDS just for the Wireless Assets. Add in the Telco/Broadband which can be monetized and TDS massively discounted is flirting with $40 per share if the Carlson family shopped and possibly chopped the thing up for a Tower Company, a Wireless Player, and or a Private Equity Outfit.
Now you could argue the Postpaid Subs and Spectrum should be valued together in the subscriber value but notice the heavy discounting I applied to both. More than 50% on the Postpaid Base and 50% of the Spectrum Value I discounted.
7 replies (most recent on top)
people, stop feeding the troll and it will go away
Yawn! I hope you don't think I wasted my time actually reading all that swill.
tldr - obviously you are not in upper management cause this was not in a power point
What a load of b u l l s h i t!
No one cares and we all think you’re a d-mb id--t. Move on.
OP, seriously, you need to get a life! I don't think anyone on this site are putting faith in your analysis of stocks you've been touting for the last several months. You should go to the Fidelity website for this.
I agree with most of your lengthy post. The Carlson family just had to entertain the idea of selling something and the stock will rocket. In the hands of TDS the assets are languishing. In the hands of a major wireless player and or a tower company they will flourish with economies of scale. I could see a Private Investment Firm buying up the entire company and parsing out the Wireless Customers, The Spectrum, The Towers, The Landline, and The Broadband Business. That would be more complicated but would fetch max value for the assets.