Your alarm goes off at 6 AM. There's an email from "Oracle Leadership." You've never gotten a message from that sender before. It says your job is gone, today is your last day, and severance details will arrive by DocuSign. By the time you finish reading, your company laptop is already locked.
This happened to up to 30,000 Oracle employees this week. Oracle reported $17.2 billion in revenue last quarter, its best in 15 years. And it still fired nearly 1 in 5 of its people. The stock went up 6% today.
Oracle owes over $108 billion. The company signed a $156 billion deal to build AI data centers over five years, mostly for OpenAI (the company behind ChatGPT). That requires buying roughly 3 million specialized computer chips. Two years ago, Oracle spent $6.9 billion a year on this kind of construction. This year it's $50 billion.
The 30,000 people who got that email are funding the gap. Investment bank TD Cowen estimates the layoffs will free up $8 to $10 billion in cash flow, money going straight into chips and construction. Oracle filed a $2.1 billion restructuring plan with regulators in March, and nearly $1 billion had already been spent before the emails went out.
Lenders are getting nervous. The cost to insure Oracle's debt against default has spiked to levels last seen during the 2009 financial crisis. Barclays downgraded Oracle's debt in November, warning the company is one step from "junk" status, the point where lenders consider you a serious default risk. Some banks have stopped lending to Oracle for these projects altogether.
The gamble gets worse. CNBC reported on March 9 that OpenAI, Oracle's biggest customer for all of this, is already looking at newer, faster chips from Nvidia. Oracle ordered the current generation and spent billions building out a massive Texas facility. OpenAI may not fully expand into it. The chips improve faster than the buildings go up.