Putting this out here now for those of us who try to survive another year. Expect that merit will continue to be extremely minimal, and the company will move to more of a bonus/LTI system.
When they pay larger merit, they have to keep up with those increases year over year regardless of profits. If I give you a $5000 raise, I am now committed to paying you at least that salary as long as you’re around. Now multiply that times thousands of employees.
A bonus however is one time. I’m only committed to that amount THIS year.
LTI is worse, I promise to pay if you stay for 3 years, but if I lay you off, I’m freed from that obligation.
So expect the company to continue to lean heavier on bonus and LTI (aka paying it out at 90-100%), versus seeing larger merit pools going forward.