Due to principles in Semiconductor manufacturing and moores law, GFs products will enter the low cost semiconductor market within 36 months.
SiPho isn’t capturing as much market demand as previous anticipated, and GaN is somewhat niche. Larger scale (7+nM) technologies will become cheap, consumer scale electronics that mostly any foundry in the world will be able to successfully manufacture. GF will scrape along for some time, missing Quarterly targets here, laying off staff there, cutting cost all the way as they try to keep investors and BoD happy. When NYS incentives run out, GF will consider being acquired by other manufacturers. My bet would be TSMC as they continue US expansion, with some potential for Intel as well. Only hurdle is US administration woes, however, GF is not an American company. This is furthermore complicated by massive deficits in skilled labor, prevalence of AI, and opportunities for robotic automation that will present themselves over the next 36 months.
Any employees considering this as FUD, ask yourself, where do you see GF in 5 years? Are things feeling concrete? Or do you feel some ripples in the water.
Costs of production are going up, which always results in profits going down, especially when producing antiquated tech.
8 replies (most recent on top)
You can judge the insolvency of GF by how long the CFOs stick around.
As always poor leadership at GF!
@aj
oh god, 3 corrupt losers combine into a bigger corrupt loser
Mubadala would have been smart to take Intel's offer prior to IPO at $50 per share which would have been a $25B purchase price. Instead, the oil sharks had dollars signs in their eyes and asked for $100 per share which would have been $50B purchase price. Now Intel is not financially doing well at least not on the semiconductor dev and mfg side. Ideally the US govt would invest even more in Intel and then Intel spins off foundry and buys GF. This would make GF a US owned company and then bring in experienced "foundry execs" to run the foundry organization. Such a spin-off would have leading edge, RF, BCD, SiPh, etc .... A rich portfolio to battle TSMC and meet the needs of the US. Now how to get the US govt to make this happen is a different beast to tackle!!
But our leaders and managers in Malta are smart and wise! This won’t happen. They won’t let it! They are best in the business! They haven’t made a bad decision yet!
Space x.. err. Xai will buy the fab once it hits rock bottom.
Don't think sell to TSMC is acceptable. The working culture sounds bad there and not sure if they can help with our RD. I think previous post make more sense that IBM+Intel+GF can win against TSMC
@OP I agree with this sentiment 100%. Acquisition is really the only way out. The fabs will remain but I predict the letterhead will be changed by eoy 2028. The firm is currently full steam ahead on cutting CPML to appear as lean as possible before opening up for bids.
For employees, the time between now and then will be the least enjoyable of the whole run.
The trade off for sustained ops in 2018 appears to be death in 2028. Life goes on :)