It goes up a week or so before earnings call then wall street kicks Intel to the curb. LOL. FML.
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@19a Hilarious watching you fellate Dave at every opportunity
Well, CFO Super Dave bought some of the stock, but what does he know anyway?
The market knows that fab monkeys sell RSUs (and ESPP when they can) after every earnings release possible, so the options market trades that pattern.
The sellers are only thinking of short term cash, while the buyers are considering something a bit more long term, even if their horizon is sometimes measured in months.
Right now they seem to be looking out to the end of 2026, but that won't hold up the stock if the large cap techs return to a more normal valuation. Passive index funds do work in both directions..
The direction for those stocks has been up for a very long time, and many have forgotten that they can ever be cheap.
Then it goes up again!
If OP had only bought the stock (frowny face emoji)..
A long sideways then earnings reports kicks up and down again ! Place your bets on the low point Qs and wait it out cause ain't no dividends to be had !
All that excess capacity is why I like the stock for swing trading.
Terrible to hold but there are few other stock of this market cap which routinely have so much volatility.
The excess capacity creates operational leverage, and that makes revenues and earnings swing wildly. LBT has toned it down some but clearly that job is not yet done.
Once 18a ramps (enabling volume to move from older nodes), things should settle down, but until then the most expensive fabs are wildly underutilized and the older fabs are producing what is now low asp (and so relatively low margin) product.
This is the result of how slowly 18A has ramped, and with yields maybe, possibly in the 60% range, the struggle is real.
The company should do some deals to shed the older fabs, either with PE investment or selling them outright to a lagging node foundry.
They could start in AZ, where they are already working with UMC in 12nm. Then fly over to Israel and sell it all. Then on to Ireland to sell the older fabs.
LBT can fix the situation if he feels he really has to.
If only there was a way to profit from knowledge of this pattern . . .
LBT needs to call uncle trump for some tweets on how he'll put tariffs on companies not using intel fabs and watch the stock hit $100
The last time the stock had this level of volume on a down day was when it gapped down from $29 to $21 in August 2024.
It then went into the $17s and $18s.
Such extreme volume can only be caused by institutional investors exiting the stock, and that is not a day trade, so expect a real washout unless LBT can announce something to stop it.
Not $18 again, but $27 would not be too outrageous, and breaking $30 is within the monthly statistical range, with the S2 pivot at $29.55.
LBT could stop the slide if he were able to announce one of the customers who have been looking at 18A-P (the first industry standard PDK for Intel). Too soon to be able to say anything about 14A, customers or otherwise.
The other thing he could do is to sell one (or maybe all) older fabs, which would eliminate the IFS losses AND clean up the balance sheet, AND reduce the capital needs going forward. These old fabs will eventually have to go anyway, and their value only goes down over time.
Only someone who is really out of reality did not know that this will happen. Next „pump” will be at the mid feb, then end of feb, dump again until April 10, 2 weeks pump and dump into July Q2 calls. And from July it can go sideways - if they will have customer, if they will deliver, if they can do more in own fabs. If not we will be in cycle or stock will hang on book value.
If Intel has to make more than $45B a year just to break even, LBT has some work to do.
He had one job!
INTC going back to 30s.
Intel CFO should be fired. This is not the 1st time to him.
Intel is like the old snake oil salesman selling Elixir out of the back of a wagon. The cure-all for whatever is ailing you. Then the town sheriff (wall street) steps in and says get out of town immediately with your fraudulent potion. Three months later you pull your wagon back into the town hoping to sell your product again.
This keeps happening because Intel spends every quarter lying to the industry about how great it's doing, but when the earnings report comes out, they have to tell the truth. And for those of you bad at math, this has been an 18.6% plummet ($54.60 to $44.45).