Ratings across 158 TV networks are down this year by an average of 18% to 30% under Nielsen’s new Big Data + Panel measurement, the Video Advertising Bureau (VAB) told The Current.
The declines in the highly prized 25 to 54 demographic — now at levels not seen in 23 years when compared with panel-only measurement — break down three ways: an 18% drop overall, a 23% decline for cable networks and 30% plunge when news and sports programming are excluded.
VAB President Sean Cunningham said the organization began uncovering these issues in late October after digging into the data. He added that Big Data + Panel shows unusually high variance, overreporting or underreporting ratings by roughly 20%. Some networks, he said, are experiencing statistical aberrations across as much as 60% of all viewing hours.
This misreporting — especially for the valuable 25 to 54 demo — has major implications for both buy and sell sides. Incomplete, unstable measurement suppresses CPMs for publishers, draining ad revenue for the already shrinking traditional TV ecosystem. On the buy side, agencies struggle to plan, forecast or trust audience guarantees.
“There is an enormous structural defect sitting in the trading currency where the 25 to 54 demographic has been systemically crushed by all of the biases inside of the way Nielsen’s calculating Big Data + Panel,” Cunningham told The Current.
When asked to comment, Nielsen responded: “This report is seriously flawed and manipulated. From what we have seen, the VAB incorrectly pulled our data and the bureau does not know how to do a proper ratings analysis. The VAB is wasting the time and money of its members."
A source close to one of the TV networks contacted by The Current added: "We went into Nielsen Big Data + Panel knowing that there could be challenges, which is why we’ve evaluated it closely from the start. As we’ve continued working with the data, and after reviewing the VAB report, we’re seeing additional discrepancies that deserve a closer look."
Cunningham said the VAB stepped in only after publishers exhausted all options trying to work with Nielsen, efforts that led to frustration over what he described as “layer upon layer of voodoo math” embedded in Nielsen’s methodology.
He believes Nielsen is weighing its 43,000-person panel too heavily, allowing it to dominate signals compared to its 45 million big data sources. He argues this leads to an oversaturation of viewers aged 55 and over in the reported ratings.